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CMC vs WS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Commercial Metals Company (CMC) vs. Worthington Steel (WS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CMC is a vertically integrated steel producer and recycler with a fast-growing construction solutions segment, while WS is a value-added steel processor focused on flat-rolled and electrical steel.
- CMC has delivered strong earnings momentum and share-price gains in recent quarters, whereas WS is absorbing a large acquisition and swung to a quarterly net loss despite surging revenue.
- CMC's scale, margins, and dividend growth currently look more stable, while WS carries a heavier post-deal debt load and thinner near-term profitability.
- Both stocks are cyclical and exposed to steel pricing, but their relative performance and market positioning have diverged meaningfully.
- On observable trend, stability, and catalyst factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor CMC over WS in the current environment.
Introduction
Investors comparing CMC (Commercial Metals Company) and WS (Worthington Steel) are effectively weighing two different ways to play the steel industry. CMC is a producer that melts, recycles, and fabricates steel, while WS is a processor that buys steel from mills and adds value through slitting, blanking, galvanizing, and lamination. This stock comparison is most relevant for traders and investors tracking the materials sector, construction demand, and acquisition-driven growth stories. Because the two companies occupy different points in the steel value chain, their relative performance, momentum, and risk profiles can diverge sharply even when broader industry conditions are similar.
CMC Overview and Recent Performance
Commercial Metals Company, headquartered in Irving, Texas, is a Fortune 500 producer of steel reinforcing bar (rebar), merchant bar, and related metal products, and it operates one of the largest metal recycling networks in the United States. The company has expanded aggressively into early-stage construction solutions, closing two precast concrete acquisitions in late 2025 that positioned it among the largest precast platforms in the country.
Recent market activity has favored CMC. The stock has risen roughly 49% over the past year, and its latest quarterly results showed adjusted earnings per share (EPS) beating consensus estimates while revenue grew by more than 20% year over year. Management's "Transform, Advance, Grow" cost program and improving steel metal margins have supported profitability, even as weather disruptions and planned mill maintenance temporarily weighed on some segments. A steady dividend, with more than 245 consecutive quarterly payments and a recent increase, reflects management's confidence in cash generation.
WS Overview and Recent Performance
Worthington Steel, based in Columbus, Ohio, is an independent steel processor that serves automotive, construction, agriculture, energy, and industrial markets across North America and, increasingly, Europe. It was spun off from Worthington Industries in 2023 and specializes in carbon flat-rolled steel processing, laser-welded solutions, and electrical steel laminations used in motor and transformer cores.
Recent market activity for WS has been more volatile. The company's latest quarterly report marked its first full quarter including Kloeckner Metals, a major European metals service center acquired in mid-2026. Revenue more than tripled year over year, but the business swung to a net loss on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis, reflecting acquisition costs, purchase accounting, and sharply higher interest expense tied to roughly $1.9 billion in net debt. Adjusted EPS also missed consensus, and the stock declined sharply in response. Management is prioritizing integration, synergy capture, and debt reduction, while maintaining a modest flat dividend.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both companies sit in the steel supply chain, their business models create different risk and reward profiles. CMC controls its raw-material input through recycling, which can support margins when scrap costs fluctuate. Its push into precast concrete adds diversification beyond commodity steel and offers a structural growth driver tied to infrastructure and construction activity. WS, by contrast, is a toll processor and value-added fabricator whose profitability depends heavily on spreads between steel costs and selling prices, as well as on end-market volumes in cyclical industries such as automotive and agriculture.
On momentum, the contrast is pronounced. CMC has delivered consecutive quarters of year-over-year earnings growth and improving metal margins, with analysts raising estimates and at least one major firm upgrading the stock. WS, meanwhile, is in an integration phase: its revenue surge has not yet translated into clean profitability, and its balance sheet is more leveraged after the Kloeckner deal. WS also carries a higher beta, indicating greater share-price volatility relative to the broader market.
Risk factors differ as well. CMC faces exposure to European steel markets, weather-driven construction seasonality, and scrap-cost timing. WS faces integration execution risk, elevated interest expense, and thinner near-term earnings coverage of its dividend. On sector exposure, CMC leans toward construction and infrastructure, while WS is more weighted toward automotive, agriculture, and electrical steel tied to electrification and data-center power demand.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, catalyst quality, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor CMC over WS in the current environment. CMC's stronger earnings momentum, expanding margins, disciplined capital allocation, and confirmed positive estimate revisions suggest a more consistent and durable trend. WS offers a compelling scale-up story through the Kloeckner acquisition and electrical steel exposure, but its recent swing to a net loss, higher leverage, and integration uncertainty introduce more near-term volatility. A probabilistic AI assessment would therefore lean toward CMC for relative stability and momentum, while acknowledging that WS retains optionality if integration synergies and electrical steel demand materialize.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMC is a Hold and WS is a Hold.
CMC sees its Stochastic Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
On October 02, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for CMC moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 40 of the 52 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CMC as a result. In 59 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CMC just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where CMC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +0.93% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMC advanced for three days, in 214 of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
CMC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
CMC moved below its 50-day moving average on September 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CMC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator for CMC entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CMC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 54 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.586) is normal, around the industry mean (3.144). P/E Ratio (12.169) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.149). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.320) is also within normal values, averaging (0.744). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.028) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.840) is also within normal values, averaging (5901.087).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Momentum Indicator for WS turns positive, indicating new upward trend
WS saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 42 of the 51 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WS just turned positive on September 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where WS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 19 of 27 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
WS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for WS crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 10 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Following a +2.40% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WS advanced for three days, in 123 of 166 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 81 of 124 cases where WS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 65%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for WS moved out of overbought territory on October 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 23 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 23 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 87%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
WS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.901) is normal, around the industry mean (2.171). WS's P/E Ratio (233.412) is considerably higher than the industry average of (34.715). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.060) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.492) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. WS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock worse than average.
CMC | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 35 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 54 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 30 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 59 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 96 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| CMC | WS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 87% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 82% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 63% | 12 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 65% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while WS’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CMC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WS’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WS’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CMC (@Metal Fabrication) experienced а +1.71% price change this week, while WS (@Steel) price change was +10.07% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Metal Fabrication industry was -2.20%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.31%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.28%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was -0.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.62%, and the average quarterly price growth was +17.59%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMC is expected to report earnings on Jan 11, 2027.
WS is expected to report earnings on Dec 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Metal Fabrication (-2.20% weekly)The industry is involved in value-added processes including creation of metal structures like machines and parts by cutting, bending and assembling, using various raw materials. A fabrication shop often bids on a project/job, and then builds the product if awarded the contract. Robotics and automation are making their way into the industry apparently to fill in skills gap[s19] . RBC Bearings Incorporated, Timken Company and Valmont Industries, Inc. are some of the largest metal fabrication companies in the U.S.
@Steel (-0.07% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
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WS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WS has been loosely correlated with CMC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if WS jumps, then CMC could also see price increases.