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COTY vs EL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Coty Inc. (COTY) vs. The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both COTY and EL operate in the competitive beauty sector but differ in market positioning: COTY focuses on mass-market fragrances and cosmetics, while EL emphasizes prestige brands.
- Recent market activity shows COTY gaining about 19% over the past month amid volatility, outperforming EL's roughly 8-11% rise, though both remain down year-to-date (YTD, meaning from the start of the current year).
- COTY trades at a steep discount from its 52-week high, with analysts issuing underweight ratings and lowered price targets around $2, reflecting ongoing challenges like earnings misses.
- EL offers a dividend yield of about 1.8% and shows acquisition interest, such as a potential Puig bid, providing potential catalysts despite price target cuts ahead of earnings.
- Technical indicators for both stocks signal neutral momentum, with COTY exhibiting higher short-term rebound potential but greater risk from negative sentiment.
- Valuation metrics highlight COTY's lower market cap ($2.1B vs. $28B for EL), appealing to value-oriented traders.
Introduction
In the dynamic beauty and personal care sector, COTY and EL represent contrasting approaches to consumer demand. COTY targets affordable, mass-market products, while EL dominates premium skincare and makeup. This stock comparison analyzes their recent performance, business drivers, and market sentiment, aiding traders seeking relative value and investors eyeing sector recovery. With both stocks showing short-term gains amid broader YTD declines, understanding their head-to-head dynamics supports informed positioning in a volatile market.
COTY Overview and Recent Performance
COTY, a global leader in fragrances, cosmetics, and skincare, has faced headwinds from inflationary pressures and promotional challenges. Trading around $2.40, the stock is down over 50% from its 52-week high of $5.34 but up approximately 19% in recent weeks, reflecting short-term momentum. Key influences include a Q2 FY2026 earnings miss (EPS of $0.14 vs. expected $0.18), CEO transition, lawsuits, and analyst downgrades with price targets as low as $1.50. Market cap stands at $2.1B, with negative EPS (TTM: -$0.62) underscoring profitability struggles. Sentiment remains cautious, though technical neutrality suggests potential stabilization if pricing power improves.
EL Overview and Recent Performance
EL, renowned for prestige beauty brands like Estée Lauder and Clinique, navigates demand shifts in skincare and fragrances. At about $77.64, shares are off 36% from the 52-week high of $121.64 but have climbed 8-11% in recent market activity. Factors include upcoming Q3 FY2026 earnings on May 1, price target reductions (average $95.82), and a proposed data breach settlement. Positive notes feature a €5B financing pursuit for a Puig acquisition and a 1.8% dividend yield. With a $28B market cap and EPS (TTM: -$0.51), EL shows resilience through restructuring, though beta of 1.25 indicates higher volatility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
COTY and EL share sector exposure to consumer beauty trends but diverge in business models: COTY's mass-market focus offers lower price points and higher volume potential, versus EL's premium positioning with stronger margins in stable times. Growth drivers contrast COTY's reliance on brand licensing amid pricing weakness against EL's digital innovation and M&A pursuits. Recent momentum favors COTY's sharper rebound, but EL exhibits better stability via dividends. Risk factors include COTY's legal issues and analyst pessimism versus EL's earnings uncertainty. Market sentiment tilts neutral technically, with COTY cheaper on relative valuation.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward EL with moderate conviction, citing its larger scale, dividend support, and emerging catalysts like the Puig bid for improved positioning amid sector pressures. While COTY shows stronger short-term momentum, EL's trend consistency and lower relative downside risk from 52-week lows suggest probabilistic outperformance in stabilizing conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is COTY is a Hold and EL is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COTY’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileEL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- COTY’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- EL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COTY’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while EL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COTY’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- EL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
COTY (@Household/Personal Care) experienced а -16.60% price change this week, while EL (@Household/Personal Care) price change was -6.87% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was -1.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.65%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.95%.
Reported Earning Dates
COTY is expected to report earnings on Aug 20, 2026.
EL is expected to report earnings on Aug 19, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Household/Personal Care (-1.63% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
| COTY | EL | COTY / EL | |
| Capitalization | 1.81B | 29B | 6% |
| EBITDA | 49.5M | 1.32B | 4% |
| Gain YTD | -33.117 | -23.098 | 143% |
| P/E Ratio | 37.14 | 147.80 | 25% |
| Revenue | 5.79B | 14.8B | 39% |
| Total Cash | 257M | 3.13B | 8% |
| Total Debt | 3.43B | 9.3B | 37% |
COTY | EL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 81 Overvalued | 57 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 94 | 92 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 88 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 34 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
EL's Valuation (57) in the Household Or Personal Care industry is in the same range as COTY (81). This means that EL’s stock grew similarly to COTY’s over the last 12 months.
EL's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Household Or Personal Care industry is in the same range as COTY (100). This means that EL’s stock grew similarly to COTY’s over the last 12 months.
EL's SMR Rating (92) in the Household Or Personal Care industry is in the same range as COTY (94). This means that EL’s stock grew similarly to COTY’s over the last 12 months.
EL's Price Growth Rating (58) in the Household Or Personal Care industry is in the same range as COTY (88). This means that EL’s stock grew similarly to COTY’s over the last 12 months.
EL's P/E Growth Rating (25) in the Household Or Personal Care industry is in the same range as COTY (34). This means that EL’s stock grew similarly to COTY’s over the last 12 months.
| COTY | EL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 83% | 4 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 75% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 4 days ago 66% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 67% | 13 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 74% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 64% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 67% |
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COTY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, COTY has been loosely correlated with LRLCY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if COTY jumps, then LRLCY could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To COTY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COTY | 100% | -3.29% | ||
| LRLCY - COTY | 55% Loosely correlated | -0.64% | ||
| BDRFY - COTY | 44% Loosely correlated | -1.15% | ||
| IPAR - COTY | 43% Loosely correlated | -1.78% | ||
| EL - COTY | 43% Loosely correlated | -0.68% | ||
| LRLCF - COTY | 41% Loosely correlated | -2.74% | ||
More | ||||
EL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EL has been loosely correlated with ELF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 42% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if EL jumps, then ELF could also see price increases.