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CVE vs SU
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Cenovus Energy (CVE) vs. Suncor Energy (SU) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Cenovus Energy (CVE) has posted record upstream production and completed the transformational MEG Energy acquisition, but carries higher net debt as it integrates those assets.
- Suncor Energy (SU) has delivered record production, refining throughput, and utilization, while reducing net debt to its lowest level in more than a decade.
- Both are integrated Canadian oil sands producers, so the comparison largely hinges on balance-sheet strength, cost structure, and consistency of shareholder returns.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on trend consistency, balance-sheet stability, and return of capital, the AI currently favors Suncor Energy (SU) over Cenovus Energy (CVE).
- For further detail, explore CVE Major News and CVE Today's Price Move, as well as SU Major News and SU Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI-powered strategies are positioning across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Cenovus Energy Inc. and Suncor Energy Inc. are two of Canada's largest integrated energy companies, each with significant exposure to the Alberta oil sands and downstream refining operations. Because both stocks respond to similar drivers—crude prices, heavy-oil differentials, refining margins, and capital-return programs—investors frequently weigh them against one another when building energy exposure. This comparison is especially relevant for value-oriented investors, income-focused traders, and anyone seeking to understand how operational execution and balance-sheet discipline translate into relative performance. By examining recent results, momentum, and market positioning side by side, traders can assess which name currently offers the more consistent risk-reward profile.
CVE Overview and Recent Performance
CVE, or Cenovus Energy Inc., is an integrated energy producer with upstream oil sands, conventional, and offshore operations plus refining and marketing assets in Canada and the United States. In recent weeks, the company has emphasized record upstream output and a strengthened heavy-oil portfolio. The centerpiece of its recent activity was the completion of its acquisition of MEG Energy, which closed in mid-November and added more than 100,000 barrels per day of production adjacent to Cenovus's flagship Christina Lake asset. The company also sold its interest in the WRB Refining joint venture, taking full operational control of its downstream business.
For the fourth quarter, Cenovus reported record total upstream production of roughly 917,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d), driven by higher oil sands volumes. Full-year 2025 net earnings rose year over year, though revenues declined as benchmark crude prices softened. The acquisition has elevated long-term debt and net debt, a factor weighing on sentiment as the market monitors integration progress and de-leveraging. Analysts have maintained a broadly favorable consensus, though near-term ratings reflect caution around the higher leverage profile.
SU Overview and Recent Performance
SU, or Suncor Energy Inc., is an integrated energy company spanning upstream oil sands production, upgrading, refining, and a large retail and wholesale fuels business. Recent market activity has been defined by operational records and steady shareholder returns. In the fourth quarter, Suncor posted record upstream production of about 909,000 barrels per day (bbls/d) and record refining throughput of roughly 504,000 bbls/d, with refinery utilization reaching 108%. Management reported achieving its three-year 2024 Investor Day targets a full year ahead of schedule.
Financially, Suncor generated strong adjusted funds from operations (AFFO, a non-GAAP cash-flow measure) and free funds flow, while cutting net debt to approximately C$6.3 billion—its lowest level since 2014. The company has continued repurchasing shares at a monthly pace and raised its quarterly dividend modestly, reinforcing its reputation for prioritizing shareholder returns. These factors have supported relatively stable momentum, even as softer crude realizations pressured adjusted operating earnings compared with the prior year.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron operates a broad ecosystem of AI trading bots, with hundreds of automated strategies trading thousands of different tickers across varying timeframes, styles, and risk profiles. Because not every bot suits every market environment, Tickeron curates a dedicated Trending AI Robots section that highlights only the strategies best aligned with current conditions. These bots differ in their approaches—ranging from short-term momentum and swing trading to longer-horizon trend following—and each carries its own performance statistics, win rates, and tradable ticker sets. For investors seeking a data-driven perspective on relative strength between names like Cenovus and Suncor, reviewing the currently trending strategies can provide useful context.
Head-to-Head Comparison
While both companies are integrated Canadian oil sands operators, their profiles differ in meaningful ways. Cenovus (CVE) offers a heavier emphasis on thermal (steam-assisted) oil sands production and has recently expanded through acquisition, which adds scale but also raises leverage and integration risk. Suncor (SU) pairs mining-based oil sands operations with a substantial refining and retail network, giving it a more vertically integrated and diversified cash-flow base.
On the balance sheet, Suncor holds a clear advantage, with net debt of roughly C$6.3 billion versus Cenovus's higher post-acquisition leverage. Suncor has also demonstrated more consistent shareholder returns, combining buybacks with a growing dividend and a stated target of returning 100% of excess funds to shareholders. Cenovus, by contrast, is in an integration and de-leveraging phase, which may moderate near-term buybacks. Both names carry commodity-price sensitivity and environmental-policy exposure, but Suncor's lower corporate breakeven and diversified downstream segment tend to smooth cash-flow volatility. In terms of recent momentum, Suncor's record operational reliability has supported steadier sentiment, while Cenovus's growth story is tempered by debt and acquisition execution.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing trend consistency, balance-sheet stability, and the durability of shareholder returns, Tickeron's AI analysis currently leans toward Suncor Energy (SU) as the more favorable of the two. Suncor's combination of record operational execution, materially lower net debt, and a disciplined, shareholder-first capital framework suggests a more stable relative positioning in the current environment. Cenovus (CVE) presents a credible growth and value narrative, but its elevated leverage and ongoing integration work introduce additional uncertainty. As such, the AI's probabilistic view favors Suncor for consistency and stability, while recognizing Cenovus as a higher-risk, higher-upside alternative should oil prices strengthen and integration proceed smoothly.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CVE is a Hold and SU is a Buy.
CVE in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026
The 10-day moving average for CVE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CVE as a result. In 67 of 91 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CVE turned negative on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 58%.
CVE moved below its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CVE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +3.65% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CVE advanced for three days, in 271 of 354 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
CVE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 233 of 291 cases where CVE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 80%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 31, placing this stock slightly worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 48 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.480) is normal, around the industry mean (1.516). P/E Ratio (7.625) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.246). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.110) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.053) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.435) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CVE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
SU in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026
SU may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 26 of 30 cases where SU's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +2.43% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SU advanced for three days, in 250 of 362 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 218 of 300 cases where SU Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SU moved out of overbought territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 31 of the 48 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 65%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SU as a result. In 47 of 77 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SU turned negative on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
SU moved below its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SU declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 31, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SU’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.669) is normal, around the industry mean (1.516). P/E Ratio (9.178) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.246). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.230) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.053) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.887) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
CVE | SU | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 71 | 36 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 48 Fair valued | 53 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 45 | 48 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 87 | 81 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CVE's Valuation (48) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as SU (53) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that CVE’s stock grew similarly to SU’s over the last 12 months.
SU's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as CVE (37) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that SU’s stock grew similarly to CVE’s over the last 12 months.
CVE's SMR Rating (45) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as SU (48) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that CVE’s stock grew similarly to SU’s over the last 12 months.
SU's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as CVE (48) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that SU’s stock grew similarly to CVE’s over the last 12 months.
SU's P/E Growth Rating (81) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as CVE (87) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that SU’s stock grew similarly to CVE’s over the last 12 months.
| CVE | SU | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 77% | 9 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 57% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 87% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CVE’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while SU’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CVE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- SU’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CVE’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SU’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CVE’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SU’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CVE (@Integrated Oil) experienced а -16.13% price change this week, while SU (@Integrated Oil) price change was -13.45% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was -11.78%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.06%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.65%.
Reported Earning Dates
CVE is expected to report earnings on Feb 09, 2027.
SU is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (-11.78% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
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CVE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CVE has been closely correlated with SU. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CVE jumps, then SU could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CVE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVE | 100% | -0.58% | ||
| SU - CVE | 82% Closely correlated | -0.46% | ||
| IMO - CVE | 82% Closely correlated | -0.68% | ||
| CRGY - CVE | 78% Closely correlated | +0.72% | ||
| EQNR - CVE | 75% Closely correlated | -1.29% | ||
| BP - CVE | 74% Closely correlated | -0.38% | ||
More | ||||
SU and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SU has been closely correlated with CVE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SU jumps, then CVE could also see price increases.