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CVNA vs MELI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Carvana (CVNA) vs. MercadoLibre (MELI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Carvana (CVNA) is a U.S. online used-car retailer reporting record revenue and profitability, while MercadoLibre (MELI) is Latin America's leading e-commerce and fintech platform.
- Both stocks have lagged the broader market over the past year, but for different reasons: CVNA faces valuation and unit-economics scrutiny, while MELI is absorbing margin compression from deliberate reinvestment.
- Carvana's growth is concentrated in a single U.S. vertical, whereas MercadoLibre spans 18 countries across commerce, payments, and credit.
- MercadoLibre's market capitalization is roughly six times larger, reflecting its more diversified regional footprint.
- Relative momentum favors MercadoLibre in recent months, even as Carvana's fundamentals show faster top-line acceleration.
Introduction
Investors comparing CVNA and MELI are effectively weighing two very different growth narratives. Carvana is a high-velocity disruptor in U.S. used-car retail, while MercadoLibre is a scaled regional powerhouse combining e-commerce with financial technology. Both are classified as consumer-discretionary e-commerce names, yet their business models, geographic exposures, and risk profiles diverge sharply. This stock comparison is relevant for growth investors evaluating whether concentrated U.S. momentum or diversified Latin American scale offers better market positioning, as well as for traders assessing relative performance and momentum shifts between the two tickers.
CVNA Overview and Recent Performance
Carvana (CVNA) operates a vertically integrated e-commerce platform for buying and selling used vehicles. In its most recent quarter, the company delivered record results: retail units sold rose 38% year over year to 197,325, revenue increased 52% to $7.376 billion, and net income reached $513 million alongside record adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $769 million. Management reaffirmed full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.7 billion to $3.0 billion.
Despite this operational strength, the stock has traded in a range and remains down year to date, reflecting a premium valuation of roughly 2.4 times forward sales. Investor attention has focused on gross profit per unit, which declined about $412 year over year, and on inventory growth that has trailed sales momentum. Carvana continues to expand reconditioning capacity at its ADESA auction sites and has entered new-car retail through acquired dealerships, broadening its addressable market while raising execution demands.
MELI Overview and Recent Performance
MercadoLibre (MELI) is Latin America's dominant e-commerce and fintech operator, active in 18 countries through its marketplace, Mercado Pago payments platform, and credit business. In its latest quarter, net revenue surpassed $10 billion for the first time, growing nearly 50% year over year, while gross merchandise volume (GMV, the total value of goods sold) climbed 44% to $21.9 billion. The fintech arm reached 88 million monthly active users, with a credit portfolio up 75% to $16.4 billion.
The trade-off is profitability. Operating margin compressed to 6.7%, its lowest level in four years, as the company invested in free shipping, credit-card expansion, and logistics. This deliberate reinvestment weighed on near-term earnings and has pressured the stock, which is down over the past year despite roughly 10% gains over the trailing 90 days. Analysts have tempered near-term expectations while generally maintaining long-term bullish views on the company's regional scale.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Several contrasts define this stock comparison. Business model: Carvana is a single-vertical, single-country operator in used-vehicle retail; MercadoLibre is a multi-vertical, multi-country ecosystem spanning marketplace, payments, credit, and advertising. Growth drivers: Carvana's growth hinges on inventory availability and reconditioning capacity, while MercadoLibre's depends on deepening user engagement and cross-selling between commerce and fintech. Recent momentum: MercadoLibre has shown stronger near-term price recovery, whereas Carvana has struggled to sustain gains despite record earnings. Risk factors: Carvana carries execution risk around unit economics and premium valuation; MercadoLibre faces credit-book risk, currency volatility, and margin pressure from reinvestment. Market sentiment: Both stocks sit below consensus price targets, but sentiment appears more constructive on MercadoLibre's diversification than on Carvana's concentrated exposure.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely assign a modest edge to MELI in the current environment. MercadoLibre offers a more consistent trend across a diversified revenue base, broader geographic catalysts, and improving near-term momentum, even as margin compression tempers upside. Carvana's record profitability and rapid unit growth are notable, but its higher valuation and single-market concentration introduce greater sensitivity to execution missteps. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: a shift in Carvana's gross-profit-per-unit trend or a deterioration in MercadoLibre's credit quality could alter the relative positioning between the two names.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CVNA is a Hold and MELI is a Hold.
CVNA's Stochastic Oscillator is staying in oversold zone for 1 day
Be on the lookout for a price bounce soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CVNA's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Following a +1.55% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CVNA advanced for three days, in 268 of 332 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
CVNA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CVNA turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 45 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
CVNA moved below its 50-day moving average on September 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CVNA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 10 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CVNA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
The Aroon Indicator for CVNA entered a downward trend on October 15, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 71 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CVNA's P/B Ratio (10.811) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.313). P/E Ratio (31.995) is within average values for comparable stocks, (44.786). CVNA's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (0.695). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.007) among similar stocks. CVNA's P/S Ratio (2.960) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.919).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. CVNA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CVNA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock worse than average.
MELI in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026
MELI moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 32 of 42 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for MELI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 18, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MELI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Aroon Indicator for MELI entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MELI's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MELI as a result. In 61 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MELI just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where MELI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +1.93% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MELI advanced for three days, in 242 of 343 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
MELI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. MELI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to slightly better than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.086) is normal, around the industry mean (56.916). P/E Ratio (46.584) is within average values for comparable stocks, (37.255). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.938) is also within normal values, averaging (1.774). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.651) is also within normal values, averaging (1.321).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MELI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
CVNA | MELI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 26 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 71 Overvalued | 83 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 35 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 78 | 68 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 98 | 69 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CVNA's Valuation (71) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as MELI (83) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that CVNA’s stock grew similarly to MELI’s over the last 12 months.
CVNA's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as MELI (100) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that CVNA’s stock grew similarly to MELI’s over the last 12 months.
CVNA's SMR Rating (19) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as MELI (35) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that CVNA’s stock grew similarly to MELI’s over the last 12 months.
MELI's Price Growth Rating (68) in the Internet Software Or Services industry is in the same range as CVNA (78) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that MELI’s stock grew similarly to CVNA’s over the last 12 months.
MELI's P/E Growth Rating (69) in the Internet Software Or Services industry is in the same range as CVNA (98) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that MELI’s stock grew similarly to CVNA’s over the last 12 months.
| CVNA | MELI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 87% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 87% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 88% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 81% | 4 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 58% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CVNA’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while MELI’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- CVNA’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MELI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CVNA’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MELI’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CVNA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MELI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CVNA (@Automotive Aftermarket) experienced а -4.08% price change this week, while MELI (@Internet Retail) price change was +0.02% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Automotive Aftermarket industry was -0.57%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.10%, and the average quarterly price growth was -18.84%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Internet Retail industry was -1.09%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.75%, and the average quarterly price growth was -21.06%.
Reported Earning Dates
CVNA is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
MELI is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Automotive Aftermarket (-0.57% weekly)The Automotive Aftermarket consists of the manufacturing, remanufacturing, distribution, retailing, and installation of vehicle parts and accessories, after the sale of the automobile by the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to the consumer. The aftermarket parts many not be manufactured by the OEM. According to a Technavio study, the US automotive parts aftermarket size is estimated to grow by USD 24.33 billion during 2018-2022 (CAGR 3%). Like many other industries, the automotive aftermarket is also being intensely penetrated by the digital boom. The online auto parts sales market is predicted to exceed $13B by 2020 (according to a study by Mirakl).
@Internet Retail (-1.09% weekly)The internet retail industry includes companies that sell products and services through the Internet. With more and more consumers using online retailers, the companies have seen a big increase in the use of their services. Some of the companies in the group are focused on selling business-to-business products and services. Others sell business-to-consumer products and services. Internet retailers offer a wide variety of products like books, apparel, and electronics. Some companies even specialize in only one or two categories. One potentially critical factor for players to thrive in this space is the quality and speed of product delivery. This requires an investment in efficient distribution networks. Things like logistics are important factors in the success in the extremely competitive industry. For a company to stay relevant in the industry it must have effective pricing strategies and upgraded websites. The websites must be easy to navigate and engaging for customers. In addition to the revenues generated from straight sales, internet retailers can generate revenue from subscription fees and advertising. Amazon.com, Inc., Alibaba Group, and JD.com are some of the global leaders.
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CVNA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CVNA has been loosely correlated with W. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CVNA jumps, then W could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CVNA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVNA | 100% | +4.59% | ||
| W - CVNA | 65% Loosely correlated | +6.82% | ||
| JMIA - CVNA | 63% Loosely correlated | +5.53% | ||
| ETSY - CVNA | 57% Loosely correlated | +7.54% | ||
| RVLV - CVNA | 57% Loosely correlated | +7.45% | ||
| GLBE - CVNA | 55% Loosely correlated | +4.85% | ||
More | ||||
MELI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MELI has been loosely correlated with CVNA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MELI jumps, then CVNA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MELI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MELI | 100% | +0.97% | ||
| CVNA - MELI | 52% Loosely correlated | +4.59% | ||
| SE - MELI | 48% Loosely correlated | +2.30% | ||
| DASH - MELI | 45% Loosely correlated | +4.91% | ||
| GLBE - MELI | 36% Loosely correlated | +4.85% | ||
| JMIA - MELI | 34% Loosely correlated | +5.53% | ||
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