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CVNA vs ETSY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Carvana (CVNA) vs. Etsy (ETSY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Carvana (CVNA) posted record third-quarter revenue of $8.04 billion and 217,385 retail units sold, yet adjusted EPS missed estimates and shares remain well below their January peak.
- Etsy (ETSY) delivered accelerating revenue growth near 11% year over year, a 30.4% adjusted EBITDA margin, and its first active-buyer increase since 2024, sending shares to a 52-week high.
- Relative performance has diverged sharply: ETSY has climbed roughly 50–60% year-to-date, while CVNA has been volatile and essentially flat, lagging the broader market.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: ETSY — based on trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative positioning, the AI framework currently favors Etsy over Carvana.
- For deeper context, explore CVNA Major News and CVNA Today's Price Move, as well as ETSY Major News and ETSY Today's Price Move.
- Discover the market's best-performing automated strategies on the Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two very different consumer-focused companies: Carvana (CVNA), a leading e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars, and Etsy (ETSY), a global marketplace for handmade, vintage, and unique goods. Both are online-first businesses shaped by consumer discretionary spending, yet their recent price behavior, growth profiles, and market positioning have diverged meaningfully. Growth-oriented traders watching relative momentum, as well as investors weighing valuation against fundamental momentum, may find this comparison relevant. By assessing recent performance, business models, and risk factors side by side, this article highlights how the two names stack up in the current market environment.
CVNA Overview and Recent Performance
Carvana operates an online used-vehicle retail platform that allows customers to shop, finance, trade in, and receive vehicles through a vertically integrated network of reconditioning and logistics facilities. In recent weeks, the company reported record results: third-quarter revenue rose 42% year over year to $8.04 billion, driven by 217,385 retail units sold — its first quarter above 200,000 units. Net income reached $483 million, and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) hit a record $800 million, a 10% margin.
Despite the strong top line, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in below analyst expectations, and full-year EBITDA guidance landed toward the midpoint below consensus. Rising benchmark interest rates and higher logistics and fuel costs pressured unit economics, with gross profit per unit (GPU) declining year over year. Shares have been volatile and remain roughly flat year-to-date, down notably from their January high, reflecting sensitivity to financing costs and valuation.
ETSY Overview and Recent Performance
Etsy operates a two-sided marketplace connecting millions of active buyers with sellers of handmade, vintage, and unique items, monetized primarily through transaction fees and advertising. Recent results point to an improving trajectory: third-quarter revenue rose 10.9% year over year to $692.5 million, with marketplace gross merchandise sales (GMS) up 8.8%. Adjusted EBITDA climbed to $210.4 million, a 30.4% margin, and adjusted EPS of $1.56 comfortably beat expectations.
Importantly, Etsy returned to active-buyer growth for the first time since 2024, aided by improved personalization, more efficient marketing, and a renewed focus on its core marketplace following the divestitures of Reverb and Depop. The stock has rallied sharply, gaining roughly 50–60% year-to-date and setting a 52-week high, supported by margin strength and monetization gains in Etsy Ads. Still, the company faces questions about long-term buyer frequency and the quality of its marketplace amid rising AI-generated listings.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies occupy different niches with contrasting growth and risk profiles. Carvana is a high-volume, capital-intensive retailer whose results hinge on vehicle affordability, financing spreads, and interest-rate movements; its recent record sales coexist with thinner unit economics and elevated volatility. Etsy, by contrast, is an asset-light marketplace where profitability benefits from take-rate expansion and operating leverage, even as top-line growth remains moderate and buyer frequency is a persistent concern.
From a momentum standpoint, the gap is clear. Etsy has established a sustained uptrend, repeatedly making new highs on earnings beats and margin expansion, whereas Carvana has struggled to hold gains, lagging the broader market despite robust growth. Sector exposure also differs: Carvana is tied to the used-auto cycle and credit conditions, while Etsy depends on discretionary e-commerce spending and its distinctive "human-made" brand positioning. Risk factors diverge accordingly — interest rates and fuel costs for Carvana, versus competition and AI-content integrity for Etsy.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI framework currently favors ETSY over CVNA. Etsy's sustained uptrend, consecutive earnings beats, margin resilience, and recovery in active buyers present a more consistent, lower-volatility pattern than Carvana's record-but-choppy results and interest-rate sensitivity. While Carvana's fundamental growth remains strong, its valuation sensitivity and uneven unit economics introduce greater uncertainty. The AI preference reflects a probabilistic assessment of relative momentum and stability rather than a definitive forecast.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CVNA is a StrongBuy and ETSY is a Hold.
CVNA in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026
The 10-day moving average for CVNA crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CVNA as a result. In 56 of 67 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CVNA just turned positive on October 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where CVNA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
CVNA moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.80% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CVNA advanced for three days, in 265 of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CVNA moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 34 of the 38 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 89%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 42 of 51 cases where CVNA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CVNA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
CVNA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CVNA entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CVNA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CVNA's P/B Ratio (13.149) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.554). P/E Ratio (32.932) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.811). CVNA's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (0.695). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. CVNA's P/S Ratio (2.960) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.919).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CVNA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
ETSY sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
ETSY saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on November 09, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 41 of the 48 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ETSY moved out of overbought territory on October 29, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 22 of the 27 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 81%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 44 of 54 cases where ETSY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ETSY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
ETSY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ETSY as a result. In 73 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
ETSY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ETSY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Following a +8.10% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ETSY advanced for three days, in 217 of 289 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 141 of 195 cases where ETSY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 72%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ETSY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-5.916) is normal, around the industry mean (22.398). ETSY has a moderately high P/E Ratio (43.868) as compared to the industry average of (9.569). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.729) is also within normal values, averaging (1.774). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.033) among similar stocks. ETSY's P/S Ratio (3.268) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.328).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ETSY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock worse than average.
CVNA | ETSY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 21 | 72 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 80 Overvalued | 84 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 82 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 100 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 7 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 92 | 30 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CVNA's Valuation (80) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as ETSY (84) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that CVNA’s stock grew similarly to ETSY’s over the last 12 months.
CVNA's Profit vs Risk Rating (82) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as ETSY (100) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that CVNA’s stock grew similarly to ETSY’s over the last 12 months.
CVNA's SMR Rating (19) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for ETSY (100) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that CVNA’s stock grew significantly faster than ETSY’s over the last 12 months.
ETSY's Price Growth Rating (7) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CVNA (41) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that ETSY’s stock grew somewhat faster than CVNA’s over the last 12 months.
ETSY's P/E Growth Rating (30) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CVNA (92) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that ETSY’s stock grew somewhat faster than CVNA’s over the last 12 months.
| CVNA | ETSY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 89% | 3 days ago 81% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 81% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 84% | 3 days ago 80% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 85% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 87% | 3 days ago 81% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 85% | 3 days ago 77% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 81% | 19 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 86% | 6 days ago 82% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 84% | 3 days ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 86% | 3 days ago 72% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CVNA’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while ETSY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CVNA’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ETSY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CVNA’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ETSY’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CVNA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- ETSY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CVNA (@Automotive Aftermarket) experienced а -1.63% price change this week, while ETSY (@Internet Retail) price change was -1.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Automotive Aftermarket industry was -5.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.19%, and the average quarterly price growth was -16.39%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Internet Retail industry was -0.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -10.56%, and the average quarterly price growth was -16.28%.
Reported Earning Dates
CVNA is expected to report earnings on Feb 25, 2027.
ETSY is expected to report earnings on Feb 25, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Automotive Aftermarket (-5.07% weekly)The Automotive Aftermarket consists of the manufacturing, remanufacturing, distribution, retailing, and installation of vehicle parts and accessories, after the sale of the automobile by the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to the consumer. The aftermarket parts many not be manufactured by the OEM. According to a Technavio study, the US automotive parts aftermarket size is estimated to grow by USD 24.33 billion during 2018-2022 (CAGR 3%). Like many other industries, the automotive aftermarket is also being intensely penetrated by the digital boom. The online auto parts sales market is predicted to exceed $13B by 2020 (according to a study by Mirakl).
@Internet Retail (-0.63% weekly)The internet retail industry includes companies that sell products and services through the Internet. With more and more consumers using online retailers, the companies have seen a big increase in the use of their services. Some of the companies in the group are focused on selling business-to-business products and services. Others sell business-to-consumer products and services. Internet retailers offer a wide variety of products like books, apparel, and electronics. Some companies even specialize in only one or two categories. One potentially critical factor for players to thrive in this space is the quality and speed of product delivery. This requires an investment in efficient distribution networks. Things like logistics are important factors in the success in the extremely competitive industry. For a company to stay relevant in the industry it must have effective pricing strategies and upgraded websites. The websites must be easy to navigate and engaging for customers. In addition to the revenues generated from straight sales, internet retailers can generate revenue from subscription fees and advertising. Amazon.com, Inc., Alibaba Group, and JD.com are some of the global leaders.
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CVNA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CVNA has been loosely correlated with W. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CVNA jumps, then W could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CVNA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVNA | 100% | +2.16% | ||
| W - CVNA | 65% Loosely correlated | +0.39% | ||
| JMIA - CVNA | 63% Loosely correlated | -5.33% | ||
| ETSY - CVNA | 57% Loosely correlated | +0.80% | ||
| RVLV - CVNA | 57% Loosely correlated | +0.59% | ||
| GLBE - CVNA | 55% Loosely correlated | +1.60% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| QVAL | 64.24 | 0.26 | +0.40% |
| Alpha Architect US Quantitative Value ETF (QVAL) | |||
| NCPB | 23.89 | -0.05 | -0.21% |
| Nuveen Core Plus Bond ETF (NCPB) | |||
| SPTM | 91.38 | -0.35 | -0.38% |
| State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500 Composite Stock Market ETF (SPTM) | |||
| GCC | 18.66 | -0.10 | -0.53% |
| WisdomTree Enhanced Commodity Strategy Fund (GCC) | |||
| AGIQ | 23.94 | -0.25 | -1.02% |
| SoFi Agentic AI ETF (AGIQ) | |||