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CVS vs UNH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CVS Health (CVS) vs. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both CVS and UNH are executing multi-quarter turnarounds, but their relative performance and momentum have diverged sharply in recent months.
- CVS has delivered consecutive beat-and-raise quarters, yet its shares have pulled back as investors weigh pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) scrutiny and membership pressure.
- UNH has outpaced the broader market in 2026, helped by expanding insurance margins, improving Optum profitability, and repeated upward guidance revisions.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: UNH — the AI currently favors UNH on the basis of more consistent trend strength, improving margins, and stronger relative performance.
- For more context on these names, explore CVS Major News and CVS Today's Price Move, as well as UNH Major News and UNH Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI trading systems are positioning across the market, visit the Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
CVS (CVS Health) and UNH (UnitedHealth Group) are two of the largest diversified healthcare companies in the United States, each spanning insurance, pharmacy services, and care delivery. Both have spent the past year repairing profitability after a difficult stretch of elevated medical costs and regulatory pressure. This stock comparison is most relevant to investors tracking the managed-care recovery, those weighing a turnaround play against a steadier large-cap leader, and traders watching relative performance within the healthcare sector. By examining business models, recent momentum, and market positioning, this article aims to clarify how the two names stack up in the current environment.
CVS Overview and Recent Performance
CVS operates through three core segments: Aetna (health insurance), Caremark (its pharmacy benefit manager, or PBM, which negotiates drug pricing), and Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness (retail pharmacies). Recent quarters have shown genuine progress. In its latest reports, CVS beat consensus on adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and revenue, raised full-year guidance twice, and reported a meaningfully improved Aetna medical benefit ratio (the share of premiums paid out for medical claims). All three segments returned to growth, and management has guided 2026 revenue to at least $414 billion.
Despite the stronger fundamentals, sentiment has cooled in recent weeks. The shares have pulled back after rising earlier in the year, pressured by comments about expected Caremark membership declines, a 340B drug-pricing headwind extending into 2027, and ongoing political scrutiny of PBM pricing models. Broader concerns around Medicare Advantage margins and a regulatory probe have added to the caution, even as CVS secured favorable Medicare Advantage star ratings and extended long-term distribution agreements.
UNH Overview and Recent Performance
UNH (UnitedHealth Group) combines UnitedHealthcare, one of the nation's largest insurers, with Optum, its fast-growing health services arm spanning care delivery, pharmacy services, and data analytics. After a sharp selloff in 2025, UNH has staged one of the more notable recoveries in the sector. In recent quarters it has beaten earnings estimates and repeatedly raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook, most recently to at least $20.50. Its medical cost ratio has improved as the company repriced plans and exited less profitable business.
That progress has come partly at the expense of scale: UnitedHealthcare served fewer members than a year earlier, a deliberate narrowing of its book toward more profitable plans. Optum's margins have also expanded, with Optum Health swinging back toward profitability. The stock has outperformed the broader market in 2026 and currently trades well above its prior-year lows. Still, a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation into Medicare Advantage billing practices and lingering policy risk remain key watchpoints.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge most clearly on business mix and momentum. CVS carries meaningful exposure to the retail pharmacy and PBM businesses, areas facing structural pricing scrutiny and competitive pressure. That breadth offers diversification but also ties results to a consumer-facing retail channel with thinner margins. UNH, by contrast, leans more heavily on employer, Medicare, and government insurance plus Optum's higher-margin services, giving it a different growth and risk profile.
On relative performance, UNH has been the stronger recent performer, outpacing the broader market in 2026 and sustaining upward estimate revisions, while CVS has posted solid earnings but seen near-term price momentum fade. Risk factors also differ: CVS faces PBM reform and membership attrition, whereas UNH contends with a federal investigation and policy uncertainty. In short, UNH currently shows more consistent trend consistency and stability, while CVS offers a deeper-value, higher-turnaround-risk profile.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative strength, margin improvement, and the pace of upward estimate revisions, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward UNH. The company's more stable recovery trajectory, outperformance versus the broader market, and steady guidance increases present a comparatively cleaner technical and fundamental setup than CVS, whose recent price pullback and PBM-related headwinds introduce more near-term uncertainty. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, and it reflects current positioning rather than a guarantee of future results.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CVS is a Buy and UNH is a Hold.
CVS in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026
CVS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 24 of 35 cases where CVS's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CVS's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 31 of 54 cases where CVS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +6.15% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CVS advanced for three days, in 222 of 335 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 173 of 253 cases where CVS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CVS as a result. In 49 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CVS turned negative on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 56%.
CVS moved below its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CVS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CVS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 49 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CVS's P/B Ratio (1.346) is slightly lower than the industry average of (3.520). P/E Ratio (21.950) is within average values for comparable stocks, (126.353). CVS's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.206) is slightly lower than the industry average of (0.786). CVS has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.032) as compared to the industry average of (0.009). P/S Ratio (0.283) is also within normal values, averaging (0.569).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CVS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CVS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
UNH sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
On November 10, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for UNH moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 33 of the 48 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
UNH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for UNH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Following a +2.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UNH advanced for three days, in 186 of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 106 of 245 cases where UNH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 43%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for UNH moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 35 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 57%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UNH as a result. In 60 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for UNH turned negative on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UNH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
UNH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. UNH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 63 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.594) is normal, around the industry mean (3.520). P/E Ratio (25.266) is within average values for comparable stocks, (126.353). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.025) is also within normal values, averaging (0.786). UNH has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.024) as compared to the industry average of (0.009). P/S Ratio (0.757) is also within normal values, averaging (0.569).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UNH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
CVS | UNH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 79 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 49 Fair valued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 74 | 92 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 81 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | 9 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CVS's Valuation (49) in the Drugstore Chains industry is in the same range as UNH (63) in the Managed Health Care industry. This means that CVS’s stock grew similarly to UNH’s over the last 12 months.
CVS's Profit vs Risk Rating (74) in the Drugstore Chains industry is in the same range as UNH (92) in the Managed Health Care industry. This means that CVS’s stock grew similarly to UNH’s over the last 12 months.
UNH's SMR Rating (58) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as CVS (81) in the Drugstore Chains industry. This means that UNH’s stock grew similarly to CVS’s over the last 12 months.
UNH's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as CVS (58) in the Drugstore Chains industry. This means that UNH’s stock grew similarly to CVS’s over the last 12 months.
UNH's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Managed Health Care industry is significantly better than the same rating for CVS (97) in the Drugstore Chains industry. This means that UNH’s stock grew significantly faster than CVS’s over the last 12 months.
| CVS | UNH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 72% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 61% | 6 days ago 52% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 43% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CVS’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while UNH’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CVS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- UNH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CVS’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UNH’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CVS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UNH’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CVS (@Managed Health Care) experienced а -2.63% price change this week, while UNH (@Managed Health Care) price change was +0.17% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Managed Health Care industry was +1.16%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was +16.62%.
Reported Earning Dates
CVS is expected to report earnings on Feb 17, 2027.
UNH is expected to report earnings on Jan 20, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Managed Health Care (+1.16% weekly)Managed healthcare industry focuses on providing health/medical and disability insurance plans, generally intended to reduce the cost of for-profit health care. The insurance products might be provided through employer-paid (fully or partly) insurance and benefit programs, or through Medicare/Medicaid. Some of the largest providers of managed health care include Aetna, Humana Inc., and Cigna, and UnitedHealthcare.
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CVS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CVS has been loosely correlated with UNH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CVS jumps, then UNH could also see price increases.
UNH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UNH has been closely correlated with ELV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UNH jumps, then ELV could also see price increases.