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CVS vs UNH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CVS Health Corporation (CVS) vs. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CVS is executing a turnaround, having beaten earnings expectations for five consecutive quarters and raised its 2026 profit guidance after improving medical-cost controls.
- UNH is the larger, more diversified operator and has raised its full-year earnings outlook multiple times in 2026 as its insurance margins recover.
- Both companies face elevated medical costs and tight Medicare Advantage (MA) margins, a shared headwind across the managed-care sector.
- CVS carries greater exposure to retail pharmacy and pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) regulation, while UNH is diversified through its Optum services division.
- Each stock has posted strong year-to-date gains, but their paths reflect different trade-offs between growth and profitability.
Introduction
CVS Health and UnitedHealth Group are two of the largest companies in U.S. healthcare, yet they compete with very different business models. CVS combines a national retail pharmacy chain, the Aetna insurance business, and the Caremark pharmacy benefit manager, while UnitedHealth pairs the country's largest health insurer with Optum, a growing healthcare-services arm. This stock comparison is relevant for investors who want to understand how an integrated retailer-insurer turnaround is faring against a diversified managed-care leader recovering its margins. Comparing their relative performance, market positioning, and risk profiles can help traders assess which model is better suited to the current environment.
CVS Overview and Recent Performance
CVS Health operates across three segments: Health Care Benefits (Aetna), Health Services (its Caremark PBM), and Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness. After a difficult 2024 in which it missed earnings and replaced its CEO, the company has rebuilt momentum. In its most recent quarterly report, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose about 14% year over year to $2.57, beating consensus, while revenue grew roughly 6% to about $100 billion. Management raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $7.30 to $7.50.
The improvement has been led by Aetna, where the medical benefit ratio (MBR) — the share of premiums spent on medical claims — declined to 84.6% from 87.3% a year earlier, signaling tighter cost control. Recent weeks have also brought structural changes, including a settlement with the Federal Trade Commission over Caremark's payment model and a shift toward biosimilar drugs. These catalysts have helped lift CVS shares toward a 52-week high, though Medicare Advantage margins and pharmacy reimbursement pressure remain notable risks.
UNH Overview and Recent Performance
UnitedHealth Group runs UnitedHealthcare, the largest U.S. health insurer, alongside Optum, which spans pharmacy services, care delivery, and healthcare data and technology. After a challenging 2025 marked by elevated medical costs and regulatory scrutiny, the company has shown a clearer profit recovery. In its latest quarter, adjusted EPS rose about 61% year over year to $4.69, well above expectations, even as revenue slipped modestly to roughly $113 billion. Management raised its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to at least $20.50.
The core driver has been a declining medical care ratio (MCR), which measures the portion of premiums paid out in claims. It fell to 88.4% from 89.9% a year earlier. Notably, UnitedHealth has accepted membership declines — down to about 48.3 million people — as it prioritizes profitable growth over enrollment, particularly in Medicare Advantage. Optum's health-services turnaround has also strengthened. However, a recent disclosure that Berkshire Hathaway exited its UNH stake, along with ongoing commercial-cost pressure, has kept sentiment measured.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
On business model, CVS is an integrated healthcare conglomerate whose fortunes hinge on turning around Aetna while managing PBM regulatory reform and a low-margin retail pharmacy base. UNH is a managed-care leader diversified into Optum, giving it more balanced revenue streams but also broad exposure to insurance utilization trends. On scale, UNH is the larger business, with full-year revenue expected near $450 billion, versus CVS's guidance of at least $405 billion.
On momentum, both have outperformed recently, but through different mechanisms. CVS's gains have been driven by insurance margin recovery and guidance raises after years of underperformance, while UNH's advance reflects a return to earnings growth even as membership shrinks. On risk, CVS is more exposed to pharmacy reimbursement pressure and PBM regulation, whereas UNH faces commercial medical-cost trends and legal scrutiny. From a market-sentiment standpoint, both have seen analyst estimate revisions trend higher, though UNH trades at a richer valuation multiple relative to its industry.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward UNH for relative stability and CVS for turnaround-driven momentum. UNH's larger, more diversified revenue base, consistent earnings beats, and repeatedly raised guidance suggest a steadier trend profile with clearer catalysts, while CVS offers a potentially stronger re-rating story given its cheaper valuation and improving medical-cost control. A probabilistic assessment would favor UNH on trend consistency and downside resilience, while recognizing that CVS may present greater upside if its Aetna recovery continues to outpace expectations. The choice ultimately depends on whether an investor prioritizes stability or a recovery narrative.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CVS is a Hold and UNH is a StrongBuy.
CVS in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
CVS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 36 of 51 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CVS as a result. In 59 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CVS just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where CVS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +2.59% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CVS advanced for three days, in 228 of 342 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CVS moved out of overbought territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 22 of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 61%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CVS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
CVS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CVS entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 21 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CVS's P/B Ratio (1.500) is slightly lower than the industry average of (3.582). P/E Ratio (24.463) is within average values for comparable stocks, (130.390). CVS's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.206) is slightly lower than the industry average of (0.786). CVS has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.028) as compared to the industry average of (0.009). P/S Ratio (0.283) is also within normal values, averaging (0.569).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CVS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CVS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
UNH's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UNH turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where UNH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UNH as a result. In 46 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
UNH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for UNH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +4.44% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UNH advanced for three days, in 182 of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UNH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
UNH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for UNH entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. UNH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 63 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.802) is normal, around the industry mean (3.582). P/E Ratio (26.731) is within average values for comparable stocks, (130.390). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.025) is also within normal values, averaging (0.786). UNH has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.022) as compared to the industry average of (0.009). P/S Ratio (0.757) is also within normal values, averaging (0.569).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UNH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
CVS | UNH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 25 | 17 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 21 Undervalued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 71 | 89 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 81 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 33 | 7 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CVS's Valuation (21) in the Drugstore Chains industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UNH (63) in the Managed Health Care industry. This means that CVS’s stock grew somewhat faster than UNH’s over the last 12 months.
CVS's Profit vs Risk Rating (71) in the Drugstore Chains industry is in the same range as UNH (89) in the Managed Health Care industry. This means that CVS’s stock grew similarly to UNH’s over the last 12 months.
UNH's SMR Rating (58) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as CVS (81) in the Drugstore Chains industry. This means that UNH’s stock grew similarly to CVS’s over the last 12 months.
UNH's Price Growth Rating (42) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as CVS (45) in the Drugstore Chains industry. This means that UNH’s stock grew similarly to CVS’s over the last 12 months.
UNH's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as CVS (33) in the Drugstore Chains industry. This means that UNH’s stock grew similarly to CVS’s over the last 12 months.
| CVS | UNH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 61% | 10 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 52% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 56% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CVS’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while UNH’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CVS’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- UNH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CVS’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UNH’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CVS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UNH’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CVS (@Managed Health Care) experienced а +3.39% price change this week, while UNH (@Managed Health Care) price change was +5.40% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Managed Health Care industry was +2.42%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.34%, and the average quarterly price growth was +42.86%.
Reported Earning Dates
CVS is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
UNH is expected to report earnings on Jan 20, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Managed Health Care (+2.42% weekly)Managed healthcare industry focuses on providing health/medical and disability insurance plans, generally intended to reduce the cost of for-profit health care. The insurance products might be provided through employer-paid (fully or partly) insurance and benefit programs, or through Medicare/Medicaid. Some of the largest providers of managed health care include Aetna, Humana Inc., and Cigna, and UnitedHealthcare.
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CVS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CVS has been loosely correlated with UNH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CVS jumps, then UNH could also see price increases.
UNH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UNH has been closely correlated with ELV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UNH jumps, then ELV could also see price increases.