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DOV vs SWK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Dover Corporation (DOV) vs. Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DOV is posting double-digit revenue and adjusted earnings growth, supported by a book-to-bill ratio (orders relative to sales) above 1.0 across all five business segments.
- SWK is earlier in a multi-year turnaround, delivering sharp margin recovery but roughly flat revenue as it leans on cost cuts, divestitures, and share gains.
- DOV's demand is tied to secular themes such as data-center cooling, clean energy, and aerospace/defense, while SWK is more exposed to consumer and retail tool cycles.
- Both companies raised their 2026 earnings outlooks in recent quarters, though SWK's second-quarter beat was partly aided by one-time tariff refunds.
- In relative performance terms, SWK has shown stronger recent share-price momentum, while DOV offers more consistent earnings visibility.
Introduction
Dover Corporation (DOV) and Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) are two of the largest diversified industrial manufacturers traded in the United States, yet they occupy very different positions in the current market cycle. Dover is an eight-billion-dollar-revenue solutions provider riding secular growth in clean energy, climate technology, and data-center infrastructure. Stanley Black & Decker is a global tools and fastening leader working through a multi-year profit rebuild after a period of margin compression. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing consistent earnings growth against a value-oriented turnaround, and for traders assessing relative performance and market positioning across the industrial sector.
DOV Overview and Recent Performance
Dover is a diversified manufacturer headquartered in Downers Grove, Illinois, operating five segments: Engineered Products, Clean Energy & Fueling, Imaging & Identification, Pumps & Process Solutions, and Climate & Sustainability Technologies. In recent quarters, the company has delivered double-digit revenue and adjusted earnings growth. Its most recent quarterly reports showed revenue rising roughly 7% to 10% year over year, with adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS, a measure of profit per share) climbing at a double-digit pace and exceeding consensus estimates.
A key driver of sentiment has been order momentum. Dover reported bookings up by a double-digit percentage, with book-to-bill above 1.0 in every segment, indicating that incoming orders are outpacing sales and supporting forward visibility. Management has pointed to strength in CO2 refrigeration systems, heat exchangers used for liquid cooling of data centers, clean-energy components, and aerospace and defense. Full-year guidance calls for mid-to-high-single-digit revenue growth and adjusted EPS growth of roughly 10% at the midpoint. Despite this fundamental strength, the stock has pulled back from its 52-week high in recent market activity, a reminder that even well-positioned industrial names remain sensitive to macro uncertainty.
SWK Overview and Recent Performance
Stanley Black & Decker is a global provider of power tools, hand tools, outdoor equipment, and engineered fastening solutions, organized primarily into a Tools & Outdoor segment and an Engineered Fastening segment. The company has been executing a turnaround built around a roughly $2 billion global cost-reduction program, portfolio simplification, and balance-sheet repair. Recent quarters have shown meaningful margin recovery, with gross margin expanding by several hundred basis points and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) rising sharply.
In its most recent quarterly report, SWK beat earnings estimates by a wide margin and raised its full-year adjusted EPS and free-cash-flow guidance. The company also completed the roughly $1.8 billion divestiture of its Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing (CAM) business, using proceeds to reduce debt and support share repurchases. However, revenue has been only roughly flat year over year, and part of the recent profit improvement reflected one-time tariff refunds. Management has acknowledged ongoing cost pressure in resins, freight, battery metals, and tungsten. Recent share-price momentum has been favorable, with the stock advancing notably over the trailing three months, but the growth story still depends heavily on execution rather than a strong underlying demand cycle.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge sharply on business model and growth drivers. Dover is a secular-growth industrial with exposure to electrification, natural refrigerants, biopharma, and AI-linked data-center cooling, which has translated into broad-based order growth and a book-to-bill above 1.0 in every segment. Stanley Black & Decker, by contrast, is a consumer-and-construction-levered franchise where the near-term profit recovery is being driven more by cost discipline, pricing, and portfolio actions than by rising end-market demand.
On margin and balance-sheet positioning, the picture is nuanced. SWK has demonstrated the fastest margin expansion and has used divestiture proceeds to cut debt, but its leverage remains elevated and part of its recent earnings gain came from non-recurring tariff refunds. DOV carries a cleaner growth profile and consistent earnings visibility, though its valuation and valuation multiple remain higher. In terms of risk, DOV is exposed to capital-spending and macro cycles, while SWK faces consumer-tariff exposure, retail channel softness, and input-cost inflation. Market sentiment has rewarded SWK's turnaround progress with stronger recent momentum, even as DOV's fundamentals have arguably been steadier.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings visibility, order-book strength, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward DOV as the more statistically consistent candidate. The combination of double-digit adjusted EPS growth, a book-to-bill above 1.0 across all five segments, and durable secular demand in clean energy and data-center cooling provides a steadier catalyst profile. SWK offers a compelling margin-recovery and value-oriented setup, but its growth is still heavily execution-dependent and partly supported by one-time items. In probabilistic terms, DOV's smoother trend and stronger fundamental momentum make it the favored selection under current market conditions, while SWK remains a higher-variance, turnaround-oriented alternative.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DOV is a StrongBuy and SWK is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for DOV turns positive, indicating new upward trend
DOV saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 81 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 45 of the 81 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 56%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
DOV moved above its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for DOV crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 7 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Following a +2.03% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DOV advanced for three days, in 167 of 307 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 85 of 216 cases where DOV Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 39%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
DOV broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DOV’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.775) is normal, around the industry mean (4.069). P/E Ratio (25.827) is within average values for comparable stocks, (37.908). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.489) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.031) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.055) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
SWK in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026
The 10-day moving average for SWK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SWK as a result. In 61 of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SWK just turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where SWK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
SWK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.32% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SWK advanced for three days, in 192 of 285 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 12 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SWK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
SWK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for SWK entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. SWK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 52 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.799) is normal, around the industry mean (3.237). P/E Ratio (25.964) is within average values for comparable stocks, (22.828). SWK's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.170) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.020). SWK has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.031) as compared to the industry average of (0.017). P/S Ratio (0.886) is also within normal values, averaging (2.217).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SWK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock worse than average.
DOV | SWK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 39 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 69 Overvalued | 52 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 41 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 56 | 79 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 8 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 24 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SWK's Valuation (52) in the Tools And Hardware industry is in the same range as DOV (69) in the Miscellaneous Manufacturing industry. This means that SWK’s stock grew similarly to DOV’s over the last 12 months.
DOV's Profit vs Risk Rating (41) in the Miscellaneous Manufacturing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SWK (100) in the Tools And Hardware industry. This means that DOV’s stock grew somewhat faster than SWK’s over the last 12 months.
DOV's SMR Rating (56) in the Miscellaneous Manufacturing industry is in the same range as SWK (79) in the Tools And Hardware industry. This means that DOV’s stock grew similarly to SWK’s over the last 12 months.
SWK's Price Growth Rating (8) in the Tools And Hardware industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DOV (46) in the Miscellaneous Manufacturing industry. This means that SWK’s stock grew somewhat faster than DOV’s over the last 12 months.
SWK's P/E Growth Rating (24) in the Tools And Hardware industry is in the same range as DOV (38) in the Miscellaneous Manufacturing industry. This means that SWK’s stock grew similarly to DOV’s over the last 12 months.
| DOV | SWK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 54% | 6 days ago 67% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | N/A | 16 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 2 days ago 65% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DOV’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while SWK’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- DOV’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- SWK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DOV’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SWK’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DOV’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- SWK’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
DOV (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а +6.62% price change this week, while SWK (@Tools & Hardware) price change was +7.39% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was +1.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -12.01%, and the average quarterly price growth was -18.26%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tools & Hardware industry was +5.77%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.56%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.63%.
Reported Earning Dates
DOV is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
SWK is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (+1.71% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
@Tools & Hardware (+5.77% weekly)Tools & Hardware industry includes companies that manufacture security products, storage cabinets, steel rules and tapes, calipers, shoe hook fasteners, lumber, structural materials and other related supplies. Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., Snap-on Incorporated and L.S. Starrett Company are some of the largest, established players in this industry. The industry is also seeing rapid growth in online sales. The proliferation of do-it-yourself (DIY) projects has boosted industry demand. But oil price volatility poses potential risks to this industry, particularly to e-commerce companies which spend on services of shipping companies, which might alter charges based on oil price movements.
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DOV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DOV has been closely correlated with LECO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DOV jumps, then LECO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To DOV | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOV | 100% | +3.93% | ||
| LECO - DOV | 73% Closely correlated | +3.10% | ||
| KMT - DOV | 69% Closely correlated | +5.57% | ||
| ATMU - DOV | 69% Closely correlated | +4.31% | ||
| NDSN - DOV | 68% Closely correlated | +1.52% | ||
| SWK - DOV | 66% Closely correlated | +3.16% | ||
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