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GGG vs SWK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Graco Inc. (GGG) vs. Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GGG (Graco Inc.) designs and manufactures fluid- and powder-handling systems for industrial and commercial use, while SWK (Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.) is a global tools, engineered fastening, and outdoor products company.
- Recent momentum has diverged sharply: SWK reached a 52-week high, whereas GGG pulled back after a quarterly earnings and guidance miss.
- GGG retains elite profitability, but margin compression and softer forward guidance have weighed on sentiment.
- SWK is benefiting from a multi-billion-dollar cost program, portfolio divestitures, and a rising dividend.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: SWK — more consistent trend strength and visible catalysts currently tilt the comparison toward Stanley Black & Decker.
- For deeper context on each name, visit GGG Major News and GGG Today's Price Move, as well as SWK Major News and SWK Today's Price Move.
- Explore Trending AI Robots to see which automated trading strategies are currently favored by the market.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two established industrials that occupy different corners of the manufacturing economy. Graco Inc. (GGG) is a niche leader in fluid- and powder-handling equipment, prized for its consistent profitability, while Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) is a diversified tools and fastening giant working through a multi-year turnaround. Comparing the two is relevant for investors weighing a high-margin, slower-growth compounder against a larger, higher-beta name in the middle of a recovery. The analysis below focuses on relative performance, market positioning, and recent developments to clarify which stock currently presents the more compelling risk-reward profile.
GGG Overview and Recent Performance
GGG supplies systems and equipment used to move, measure, control, dispense, and spray fluid and powder materials, serving customers in manufacturing, processing, construction, and maintenance. The company has long been recognized for industry-leading operating margins, historically averaging in the high-20% range. In its most recent quarterly report, revenue rose roughly 8% year over year to a record level, but results landed slightly below analyst expectations, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) also came in modestly short. More notably, operating margin compressed versus the prior-year period, reflecting product mix and integration costs from recent acquisitions, and forward revenue guidance underwhelmed. These factors triggered a sharp single-session selloff and a reset in investor expectations, even as organic orders and demand in areas such as professional paint, powder finishing, and semiconductor applications continued to grow.
SWK Overview and Recent Performance
SWK is a diversified manufacturer of power and hand tools, outdoor products, and engineered fastening systems under brands including DEWALT, CRAFTSMAN, and Stanley. The company has spent recent quarters simplifying its portfolio, completing the sale of its Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing business and using the proceeds to reduce debt. It has also made progress on a large global cost-reduction program and raised its quarterly dividend. In recent market activity, SWK climbed to a 52-week high, supported by a streak of positive earnings surprises and strong demand in its Engineered Fastening segment, particularly from aerospace customers. At the same time, softer do-it-yourself (DIY) retail demand and an elevated debt load remain sources of caution, tempering an otherwise improving earnings trajectory.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ in business model, growth drivers, and risk exposure. GGG is a focused, asset-light niche operator with exceptional margins, strong free cash flow, and a history of disciplined acquisitions, but its growth is cyclical and its recent margin compression raises questions about near-term earnings quality. SWK is a larger, more diversified business with greater exposure to consumer and construction cyclicality, a more leveraged balance sheet, and thinner margins, yet it offers a clear self-help story through cost cuts, portfolio simplification, and a growing dividend. On momentum, SWK has been the stronger performer, reaching multi-year highs, while GGG has corrected. The trade-off is stability and profitability versus recovery momentum and catalyst potential.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, momentum, and near-term catalysts, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward SWK. Stanley Black & Decker's uptrend toward a 52-week high, its run of positive earnings surprises, and tangible drivers such as cost savings, divestiture proceeds, and dividend growth provide a clearer, more sustained directional signal. Graco's (GGG) superior profitability remains intact, but the recent earnings miss, margin compression, and softer guidance introduce greater near-term uncertainty. This is a probabilistic assessment of relative positioning rather than a definitive forecast, and conditions can shift as new data emerges.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GGG is a StrongBuy and SWK is a StrongBuy.
GGG's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GGG turned positive on November 10, 2026. Looking at past instances where GGG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GGG's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 22 of 39 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GGG as a result. In 47 of 94 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Following a +1.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GGG advanced for three days, in 147 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 87 of 211 cases where GGG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 41%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
GGG moved below its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for GGG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GGG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
GGG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 11, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. GGG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.357) is normal, around the industry mean (3.843). P/E Ratio (21.009) is within average values for comparable stocks, (36.971). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.334) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.643) is also within normal values, averaging (189.487).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GGG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock worse than average.
SWK in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026
The 10-day moving average for SWK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SWK as a result. In 68 of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
SWK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.32% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SWK advanced for three days, in 192 of 285 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 130 of 203 cases where SWK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 14 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 19 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SWK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
SWK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. SWK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 56 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.936) is normal, around the industry mean (3.143). P/E Ratio (27.944) is within average values for comparable stocks, (22.467). SWK's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.170) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.020). SWK has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.029) as compared to the industry average of (0.018). P/S Ratio (0.886) is also within normal values, averaging (2.217).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SWK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock worse than average.
GGG | SWK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 88 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 77 Overvalued | 56 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 83 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 45 | 79 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 71 | 2 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 77 | 22 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SWK's Valuation (56) in the Tools And Hardware industry is in the same range as GGG (77) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that SWK’s stock grew similarly to GGG’s over the last 12 months.
GGG's Profit vs Risk Rating (83) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as SWK (100) in the Tools And Hardware industry. This means that GGG’s stock grew similarly to SWK’s over the last 12 months.
GGG's SMR Rating (45) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SWK (79) in the Tools And Hardware industry. This means that GGG’s stock grew somewhat faster than SWK’s over the last 12 months.
SWK's Price Growth Rating (2) in the Tools And Hardware industry is significantly better than the same rating for GGG (71) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that SWK’s stock grew significantly faster than GGG’s over the last 12 months.
SWK's P/E Growth Rating (22) in the Tools And Hardware industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GGG (77) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that SWK’s stock grew somewhat faster than GGG’s over the last 12 months.
| GGG | SWK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 72% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 47% | 15 days ago 67% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 36% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 64% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GGG’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while SWK’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- GGG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- SWK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GGG’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SWK’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GGG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SWK’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
GGG (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а +4.59% price change this week, while SWK (@Tools & Hardware) price change was -2.29% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was +9.15%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.09%, and the average quarterly price growth was -15.15%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tools & Hardware industry was +1.66%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.08%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.03%.
Reported Earning Dates
GGG is expected to report earnings on Feb 01, 2027.
SWK is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (+9.15% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
@Tools & Hardware (+1.66% weekly)Tools & Hardware industry includes companies that manufacture security products, storage cabinets, steel rules and tapes, calipers, shoe hook fasteners, lumber, structural materials and other related supplies. Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., Snap-on Incorporated and L.S. Starrett Company are some of the largest, established players in this industry. The industry is also seeing rapid growth in online sales. The proliferation of do-it-yourself (DIY) projects has boosted industry demand. But oil price volatility poses potential risks to this industry, particularly to e-commerce companies which spend on services of shipping companies, which might alter charges based on oil price movements.
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GGG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GGG has been closely correlated with LECO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GGG jumps, then LECO could also see price increases.
SWK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SWK has been closely correlated with NDSN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SWK jumps, then NDSN could also see price increases.