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ESNT vs MTG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) vs. MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) and MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) are two leading U.S. private mortgage insurers operating in a concentrated, high-barrier-to-entry market shaped by PMIERs (Private Mortgage Insurer Eligibility Requirements) capital standards.
- MTG commands the larger insurance-in-force portfolio at over $303 billion, while ESNT holds $248 billion but benefits from a portfolio exclusively originated after the 2008 financial crisis, meaning no legacy credit risk.
- Both companies delivered robust full-year 2025 results, with MTG reporting $738 million in net income and ESNT reporting $690 million, while each returned substantial capital to shareholders through aggressive buyback programs.
- ESNT holds a technological edge through its EssentEDGE data-analytics platform and has received a Moody's ratings upgrade, while MTG draws strength from decades of lender relationships and an S&P outlook revision to positive.
- Recent analyst sentiment tilts more favorably toward ESNT, with KBW maintaining an Outperform rating, while MTG carries a Market Perform rating amid valuation concerns.
Introduction
For investors evaluating the private mortgage insurance sector, ESNT and MTG represent two distinct approaches to the same core business: protecting mortgage lenders against borrower defaults on low-down-payment home loans. Both companies operate in a regulatory-shielded oligopoly dominated by a handful of players, generating recurring premium revenue from multi-billion-dollar insurance portfolios. Yet their profiles diverge meaningfully in terms of scale, legacy positioning, technological sophistication, and capital allocation strategy. This comparison is particularly relevant for value-oriented investors weighing quality, growth potential, and relative valuation in a housing market shaped by persistently elevated mortgage rates and constrained affordability.
ESNT Overview and Recent Performance
ESNT is a Bermuda-based holding company offering private mortgage insurance, reinsurance, and title insurance and settlement services. Founded after the 2008 financial crisis, Essent carries a structurally cleaner balance sheet with no pre-crisis legacy exposure — a distinction that continues to shape its risk profile and market perception. For full-year 2025, the company reported net income of $690 million, or $6.90 per diluted share, and ended the period with mortgage insurance-in-force of $248.4 billion. The persistency rate — the percentage of policies that remain active rather than being cancelled — stood at a strong 86%, reflecting how elevated mortgage rates have locked in existing policies. In recent weeks, Essent announced a 13% dividend increase to $0.35 per share and disclosed that it repurchased 9.9 million shares in 2025, retiring nearly 10% of its outstanding shares. The company was also upgraded by Moody's in August 2025, with its insurance financial strength rating raised to A2. Analysts at KBW and Roth MKM have maintained constructive ratings on the name, citing its capital strength, superior profitability metrics, and technology-driven underwriting edge through the EssentEDGE platform.
MTG Overview and Recent Performance
MTG, headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, is the industry's most established player, with decades of experience across multiple housing cycles. The company closed full-year 2025 with net income of $738.3 million, or $3.14 per diluted share, and surpassed a milestone of $303 billion in insurance-in-force — the largest portfolio among standalone U.S. private mortgage insurers. New insurance written (NIW) grew 8% year-over-year to $60 billion for the full year, signaling healthy origination volume capture despite a challenging mortgage rate environment. MGIC returned $915 million to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and buybacks, reducing shares outstanding by 12% and extending a five-year streak of dividend growth. Credit quality remained solid, with an average FICO score of 748 on new originations. In October 2025, S&P revised its outlook on MGIC to positive, reflecting improving financial flexibility. The company also executed multiple reinsurance transactions, including a $324 million excess-of-loss agreement through insurance-linked notes in early 2026, reinforcing its risk management framework. Despite these strengths, KBW downgraded MTG to Market Perform in late 2024, citing valuation considerations relative to other names in the sector.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
When comparing ESNT and MTG, several dimensions highlight meaningful trade-offs. In terms of scale and market presence, MTG leads with a $303 billion insurance-in-force portfolio versus ESNT's $248 billion, and its $60 billion in full-year NIW meaningfully exceeds Essent's roughly $48 billion pace. This size advantage translates into deeper lender relationships built over decades. However, portfolio quality tilts in Essent's favor: its entirely post-2008 book carries no legacy tail risk, and its EssentEDGE platform provides a data-analytics-driven pricing advantage that supports superior operating margins — 74.5% versus MTG's 71.2%, according to recent competitive analysis. On capital return, both companies are aggressive, but MTG returned a larger absolute sum ($915 million vs. approximately $700 million) and reduced its share count by 12%. In terms of return on equity (ROE), MTG posted a stronger 14.3% for full-year 2025, compared to ESNT's 12%, though Essent has historically led on this metric. From a valuation perspective, MTG trades at a slightly lower price-to-earnings multiple and near tangible book value, making it the deeper value play. Finally, on analyst sentiment, ESNT enjoys an Outperform rating from KBW while MTG sits at Market Perform, suggesting near-term preference for Essent's combination of quality and valuation support.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative positioning, and current market signals, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward ESNT in the current environment. The reasoning rests on a combination of factors: Essent's cleaner balance sheet with no pre-2008 legacy exposure provides a structurally lower-volatility profile; its EssentEDGE platform offers a demonstrable technological moat that supports superior underwriting margins; and the Moody's upgrade to A2, coupled with an Outperform rating from KBW, reflects positive momentum in credit and analyst sentiment. That said, MTG remains a formidable competitor with a larger portfolio, higher ROE in the most recent fiscal year, and a more aggressive capital return program — attributes that could make it the preferred choice under a different set of market conditions, particularly one favoring deep-value positioning. The AI assessment emphasizes probabilities, not certainties, and a shift in housing market dynamics — such as a meaningful decline in mortgage rates — could alter the relative attractiveness of both names.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ESNT is a StrongBuy and MTG is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ESNT’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileMTG’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ESNT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MTG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ESNT’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ESNT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MTG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ESNT (@Specialty Insurance) experienced а +1.24% price change this week, while MTG (@Specialty Insurance) price change was +2.23% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Specialty Insurance industry was -0.81%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.82%, and the average quarterly price growth was +0.85%.
Reported Earning Dates
ESNT is expected to report earnings on Oct 30, 2026.
MTG is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Specialty Insurance (-0.81% weekly)Specialty insurance typically caters to niche-markets, and covers items that are special or unique and/or items that are not typically covered under other insurance policies. Restoration or purchase of a one-of-a-kind collector’s item, high-value home, recreational vehicles, sailboat or even jet skis, horses and farms, all-terrain vehicle, funerals, museums and fine art collections are some examples– one or more of which are covered by a specialty insurance provider. In some cases, a specialty insurance could also complement someone’s existing auto, home and umbrella policies. Markel Corp, for Fidelity National Financial, Inc., Assurant, Inc. and Athene Holding Ltd. are examples of specialty insurance providers.
| ESNT | MTG | ESNT / MTG | |
| Capitalization | 6.25B | 6.39B | 98% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 8.322 | 8.455 | 98% |
| P/E Ratio | 9.70 | 9.74 | 100% |
| Revenue | 1.31B | 1.2B | 109% |
| Total Cash | 6.18B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 496M | 647M | 77% |
ESNT | MTG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 83 | 32 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 74 Overvalued | 77 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 4 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 67 | 63 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 43 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ESNT's Valuation (74) in the Specialty Insurance industry is in the same range as MTG (77). This means that ESNT’s stock grew similarly to MTG’s over the last 12 months.
MTG's Profit vs Risk Rating (4) in the Specialty Insurance industry is in the same range as ESNT (18). This means that MTG’s stock grew similarly to ESNT’s over the last 12 months.
MTG's SMR Rating (63) in the Specialty Insurance industry is in the same range as ESNT (67). This means that MTG’s stock grew similarly to ESNT’s over the last 12 months.
MTG's Price Growth Rating (44) in the Specialty Insurance industry is in the same range as ESNT (46). This means that MTG’s stock grew similarly to ESNT’s over the last 12 months.
MTG's P/E Growth Rating (43) in the Specialty Insurance industry is in the same range as ESNT (45). This means that MTG’s stock grew similarly to ESNT’s over the last 12 months.
| ESNT | MTG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 42% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 41% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 50% | 10 days ago 48% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 53% |
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ESNT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ESNT has been closely correlated with MTG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ESNT jumps, then MTG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ESNT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESNT | 100% | +0.42% | ||
| MTG - ESNT | 83% Closely correlated | +1.04% | ||
| RDN - ESNT | 76% Closely correlated | +1.06% | ||
| AIZ - ESNT | 57% Loosely correlated | +0.52% | ||
| FNF - ESNT | 50% Loosely correlated | +1.02% | ||
| FAF - ESNT | 48% Loosely correlated | -0.27% | ||
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MTG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTG has been closely correlated with NMIH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTG jumps, then NMIH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MTG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTG | 100% | +1.04% | ||
| NMIH - MTG | 88% Closely correlated | +0.59% | ||
| ESNT - MTG | 83% Closely correlated | +0.42% | ||
| ACT - MTG | 74% Closely correlated | +0.32% | ||
| RDN - MTG | 71% Closely correlated | +1.06% | ||
| FNF - MTG | 47% Loosely correlated | +1.02% | ||
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