Advertisement
GGG vs ITW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Graco Inc. (GGG) vs. Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale gap: ITW is a Fortune 300 multi-industrial with roughly $16 billion in annual revenue, while GGG is a specialized fluid-handling leader generating around $2.3 billion — a materially different size and diversification profile.
- Momentum contrast: ITW posted record quarterly profitability and raised 2026 guidance, whereas GGG delivered a record quarter but is still working through softer construction and organic-growth headwinds.
- Relative performance: ITW has outperformed over the past year and is positive year-to-date, while GGG has lagged both the broader market and its industrial peers over the same window.
- Growth engines: ITW is benefiting from capital expenditure (CapEx) and semiconductor-related demand; GGG leans on acquisitions and an improving order backlog to offset weak end markets.
- Capital returns: Both are reliable dividend payers, but ITW offers a higher yield, a fresh buyback authorization, and a larger shareholder-return program.
Introduction
Both GGG and ITW are established industrial manufacturers with strong balance sheets, disciplined capital allocation, and multi-decade operating histories. Yet their businesses differ sharply in scope and current momentum, making them a useful stock comparison for investors weighing a focused specialty play against a diversified industrial compounder. This analysis examines their recent performance, growth drivers, and market positioning to help traders and investors assess how these two names stack up in the current environment.
GGG Overview and Recent Performance
Graco Inc. designs and manufactures equipment that moves, measures, controls, and sprays fluids and powders, organized across Contractor, Industrial, and Expansion Markets segments. In recent weeks, the company has leaned on acquisitions — including the roughly $447 million purchase of adhesive-dispensing specialist Valco Melton — to supplement an organic-growth picture weighed down by softness in Americas construction and project timing.
Graco's first quarter of 2026 missed consensus estimates as organic sales declined 6%, but momentum improved into the second quarter, when the company reported record sales and operating earnings and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose 17% year over year. Management has pointed to rising order rates and a backlog that was up 28% from the start of the year as reasons for a stronger second half. Even so, GGG shares remain below their 52-week high, with the stock trading near the lower end of its range amid persistent tariff-cost and housing-market concerns.
ITW Overview and Recent Performance
Illinois Tool Works Inc. is a Fortune 300 multi-industrial manufacturer running seven segments — including Automotive OEM (original equipment manufacturer), Food Equipment, Welding, Test & Measurement and Electronics, and Construction Products — under a decentralized operating model focused on best-in-class margins. In recent weeks, the company has delivered broad-based acceleration, led by double-digit organic growth in CapEx-driven and semiconductor-exposed segments.
In its second quarter, ITW reported revenue up 6.1% with 4.5% organic growth, GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) EPS up 10.1%, and its most profitable quarter on record, with operating margin of 26.7%. The company raised full-year guidance to $11.35–$11.55 in EPS and 3–4% organic growth, while announcing a 7% dividend increase and a new $6 billion buyback authorization. The stock has been a relative outperformer year-to-date, though foodservice-equipment softness and a declining global vehicle build remain watchpoints.
Trending AI Robots
For traders who prefer a systematic approach, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page highlights a curated selection of AI trading bots drawn from a much larger library of hundreds of automated strategies that trade thousands of different tickers. Because these bots vary widely in trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance statistics, and the set of tickers they cover, only the ones best suited to current market conditions earn a spot in the trending section. This makes the page a useful starting point for discovering signal-driven approaches to names such as GGG and ITW. Explore the Trending AI Robots section to see which strategies are currently leading.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast is diversification versus specialization. ITW's seven-segment portfolio spreads exposure across automotive, foodservice, construction, welding, and electronics, cushioning weakness in any single market. Graco is far more concentrated in fluid-handling and coating applications, which concentrates its sensitivity to construction and industrial project cycles.
Growth drivers also diverge. ITW is currently benefiting from customer-back innovation and CapEx-heavy, semiconductor-adjacent demand, which translated into raised guidance. Graco's growth is more acquisition-driven, with organic sales still recovering from soft housing markets — though its improving backlog suggests a firmer setup ahead.
On valuation and shareholder returns, both trade near similar forward earnings multiples, but ITW carries a higher dividend yield, a larger market capitalization, and a more aggressive buyback program. Risk profiles differ as well: ITW faces automotive-production and foodservice headwinds, while GGG contends with tariff cost pressure and a still-soft contractor channel. In sentiment terms, ITW's raised guidance and record margins have supported stronger recent momentum, whereas GGG is positioned as a potential recovery story contingent on backlog conversion.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor ITW in the current environment. The stock combines more consistent trend strength, raised forward guidance, record profitability, and broader end-market diversification, which together point to more stable near-term positioning. Graco's improving order trends and acquisition pipeline present a credible recovery case, but its softer organic growth and housing exposure introduce comparatively more uncertainty. The AI's preference would be expressed probabilistically rather than as a definitive call, reflecting ITW's steadier momentum and catalyst profile against GGG's earlier-stage inflection.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GGG is a Hold and ITW is a Hold.
GGG in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
The 10-day moving average for GGG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GGG as a result. In 49 of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GGG just turned positive on September 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where GGG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 22 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
GGG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.88% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GGG advanced for three days, in 147 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 79 of 211 cases where GGG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 37%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GGG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
GGG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GGG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.264) is normal, around the industry mean (4.583). P/E Ratio (25.384) is within average values for comparable stocks, (38.005). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.334) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.643) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
ITW in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on September 30, 2026
ITW may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 21 of 32 cases where ITW's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ITW's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 10 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 42%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ITW as a result. In 56 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ITW just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ITW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Following a +1.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ITW advanced for three days, in 168 of 328 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ITW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
The Aroon Indicator for ITW entered a downward trend on October 07, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ITW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ITW's P/B Ratio (26.795) is slightly higher than the industry average of (4.583). P/E Ratio (24.618) is within average values for comparable stocks, (38.005). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.543) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.699) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
GGG | ITW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 46 | 43 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 81 Overvalued | 95 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 37 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 45 | 13 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GGG's Valuation (81) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as ITW (95). This means that GGG’s stock grew similarly to ITW’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's Profit vs Risk Rating (37) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as GGG (64). This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to GGG’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's SMR Rating (13) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as GGG (45). This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to GGG’s over the last 12 months.
GGG's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as ITW (47). This means that GGG’s stock grew similarly to ITW’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's P/E Growth Rating (25) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as GGG (57). This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to GGG’s over the last 12 months.
| GGG | ITW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 50% | 4 days ago 42% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 48% | 4 days ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 53% | 4 days ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 48% | 4 days ago 54% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 49% | 4 days ago 54% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 47% | 4 days ago 50% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 47% | 4 days ago 51% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 52% | 20 days ago 41% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 47% | 4 days ago 66% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 37% | 4 days ago 49% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GGG’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while ITW’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- GGG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- ITW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GGG’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ITW’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GGG’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ITW’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
GGG (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а +4.83% price change this week, while ITW (@Industrial Machinery) price change was +3.09% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was -8.04%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -13.31%, and the average quarterly price growth was -18.69%.
Reported Earning Dates
GGG is expected to report earnings on Oct 21, 2026.
ITW is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (-8.04% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
Advertisement
ITW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ITW has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ITW jumps, then IR could also see price increases.