GLD
Price
$369.00
Change
-$9.95 (-2.63%)
Updated
Oct 22 closing price
Net Assets
141.35B
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
PHYS
Price
$30.39
Change
-$0.85 (-2.72%)
Updated
Oct 22 closing price
Net Assets
14.75B
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
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GLD vs PHYS

GLD vs PHYS Comparison Chart in %
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A.I.Advisor
Oct 21, 2026

Which ETF would AI Choose? SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) vs. Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS)

Key Takeaways

  • Both GLD and PHYS provide direct exposure to physical gold bullion, tracking the LBMA Gold Price PM with minimal structural differences in underlying holdings.
  • GLD operates as a grantor trust with significantly higher liquidity and assets under management, while PHYS is structured as a closed-end trust offering physical redemption options for qualifying investors.
  • Expense ratios are identical at 0.40% for both funds, resulting in comparable cost structures over long holding periods.
  • Neither fund holds equities or maintains sector allocations; exposure is 100% allocated to unencumbered London Good Delivery gold bars stored in secure vaults.
  • Performance dynamics are tightly correlated, with differences primarily driven by tracking efficiency, trading spreads, and tax treatment nuances rather than active management decisions.
  • In the current environment of fluctuating real interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty, both serve as portfolio diversifiers with low correlation to traditional equity and fixed-income assets.

Introduction

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) represent two leading vehicles for investors seeking exposure to physical gold without the logistical challenges of direct ownership. These funds compete directly within the physically backed gold category, offering similar strategies that aim to reflect gold bullion price movements net of expenses. The comparison is particularly relevant amid ongoing macroeconomic shifts, including interest rate cycles and safe-haven demand, where structural features such as liquidity, redemption rights, and cost efficiency can influence long-term positioning.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Overview

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is a grantor trust sponsored by World Gold Trust Services, LLC, with State Street Global Advisors as the marketing agent. It seeks to track the performance of the price of gold bullion, as measured by the LBMA Gold Price PM, less the trust’s expenses. The fund holds physical gold bullion stored in secure vaults maintained by custodians JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., and HSBC Bank plc. It maintains a single holding of allocated gold with no equities or derivatives. The expense ratio stands at 0.40%. As one of the largest and most established gold products, GLD benefits from deep liquidity on NYSE Arca, making it suitable for institutional and high-volume trading. The structure provides transparent, passive exposure without active rebalancing or thematic overlays.

Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) Overview

Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) is a closed-end trust managed by Sprott Asset Management LP. It invests substantially all assets in fully allocated, unencumbered physical gold bullion meeting London Good Delivery standards, stored at the Royal Canadian Mint. Like GLD, it aims to track the LBMA Gold Price PM minus expenses, with a single holding of physical gold and an expense ratio of 0.40%. Distinguishing features include the ability for eligible unitholders to redeem units for physical gold on a monthly basis, subject to minimums and procedures. The trust trades on NYSE Arca and offers potential tax advantages in certain jurisdictions through its structure. It provides convenient exchange-traded access to allocated bullion without the operational burdens of direct storage.

Industry and Thematic Backdrop

The physically backed gold sector serves investors seeking a hedge against inflation, currency fluctuations, and geopolitical risks. Gold’s role as a non-yielding store of value intensifies during periods of elevated real interest rate volatility or equity market stress. Macro drivers include central bank purchasing patterns, supply constraints from mining output, and shifts in global risk appetite. Regulatory developments around commodity trusts and custody standards influence operational resilience. Capital flows into gold products often accelerate during uncertainty, supporting demand for liquid, transparent vehicles. Risks include opportunity costs relative to interest-bearing assets and potential premium or discount volatility in closed-end structures.

Performance and Positioning Comparison

Over recent market cycles, both GLD and PHYS have exhibited highly correlated returns driven by underlying gold price movements, with minor divergences attributable to expense realization, trading spreads, and structural frictions. In environments of rising gold prices tied to lower real yields or heightened uncertainty, the funds have delivered comparable gains. GLD’s superior liquidity typically results in tighter bid-ask spreads, benefiting frequent traders, while PHYS’s redemption feature may appeal to long-term holders seeking physical delivery. Relative positioning favors GLD for scale-driven efficiency in large transactions, whereas PHYS offers differentiation through its trust mechanics and custody jurisdiction. Volatility profiles remain closely aligned, reflecting the shared commodity exposure.

AI Screener

Tickeron’s AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. Explore the AI Screener to uncover additional opportunities aligned with your strategy.

Tickeron AI Verdict

Based on observable factors including structural strength, liquidity profile, cost efficiency, and diversification characteristics, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a probabilistic preference to SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). Its larger scale and tighter trading dynamics provide advantages in execution and accessibility within the shared gold exposure framework, though Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) remains competitive for investors prioritizing redemption flexibility. Outcomes depend on individual objectives around holding period and transaction frequency.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.

Disclaimers and Limitations

VS
GLD vs. PHYS commentary
Oct 23, 2026

To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GLD is a Hold and PHYS is a Hold.

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SUMMARIES
A.I.Advisor
a Summary for GLD with price predictions
Oct 22, 2026

GLD sees MACD Histogram just turned negative

GLD saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 22, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 37 of the 51 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 73%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GLD as a result. In 58 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.

GLD moved below its 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for GLD crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GLD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.

The Aroon Indicator for GLD entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.

Following a +2.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GLD advanced for three days, in 295 of 349 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.

GLD may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

A.I.Advisor
a Summary for PHYS with price predictions
Oct 22, 2026

PHYS sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line

PHYS saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 22, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 50 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 70%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PHYS as a result. In 56 of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.

PHYS moved below its 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for PHYS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 25, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 6 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 40%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PHYS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.

The Aroon Indicator for PHYS entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where PHYS's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.

Following a +2.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PHYS advanced for three days, in 292 of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.

PHYS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technical Analysis
GLDPHYS
RSI
ODDS (%)
N/A
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
82%
Stochastic
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
86%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
80%
Momentum
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
67%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
62%
MACD
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
73%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
70%
TrendWeek
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
72%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
72%
TrendMonth
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
72%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
73%
Advances
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 14 days ago
85%
Bullish Trend 14 days ago
86%
Declines
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 3 days ago
66%
Bearish Trend 3 days ago
67%
BollingerBands
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
90%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
89%
Aroon
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
63%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
68%
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Daily Signal:
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