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GS vs JEF
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Goldman Sachs (GS) vs. Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GS delivered record full-year 2025 net revenues of $58.28 billion and posted an annualized return on equity (ROE) of 15.0%, cementing its position as the world's leading M&A (mergers and acquisitions) advisor for the 25th consecutive year.
- JEF generated $7.34 billion in net revenues for fiscal 2025, with investment banking fees reaching $3.79 billion, though its stock has faced headwinds from the Point Bonita–First Brands matter and broader market uncertainty.
- Over the past twelve months, GS has outperformed JEF by a wide margin, reflecting divergent sentiment around scale, diversification, and exposure to mega-cap M&A activity.
- JEF trades at a notably lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple and carries higher projected earnings growth rates for fiscal 2026, offering a distinct risk-reward profile for investors seeking a pure-play investment banking exposure.
- Both firms operate in the same industry but differ markedly in size, business mix, and market positioning, making this a study of scale versus specialization.
Introduction
Investment banks sit at the heart of global capital flows, and two names that frequently surface in comparative discussions are GS (The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.) and JEF (Jefferies Financial Group Inc.). While both generate revenue from advisory services, underwriting, and trading, they occupy different tiers of the financial ecosystem. Goldman Sachs is a bulge-bracket institution with a market capitalization exceeding $300 billion and a vast asset and wealth management platform. Jefferies, with a market cap near $11 billion, is the largest pure-play investment banking firm in the world and has steadily gained market share in advisory and capital markets. This comparison examines how these two financial services companies stack up across performance, strategy, and risk dimensions — offering traders and investors a clear, data-driven perspective on their relative positioning in the current market environment.
GS Overview and Recent Performance
Goldman Sachs closed fiscal 2025 with record annual net revenues of $58.28 billion, a 9% increase from the prior year, while diluted earnings per share (EPS) surged 27% to $51.32. The firm's annualized ROE reached 15.0%, up 230 basis points from 2024. These results were propelled by a historic resurgence in global M&A, where Goldman advised on roughly $1.6 trillion in announced deal volume and maintained its #1 league-table ranking. The firm's Global Banking & Markets segment — which accounted for more than 77% of quarterly revenue in recent periods — saw investment banking fees and equity revenues each rise 25% year over year in the fourth quarter.
Recent weeks have also brought strategic clarity. Goldman completed the sale of its Apple Card portfolio to a major peer, effectively closing the chapter on its consumer banking experiment and sharpening its focus on institutional and ultra-high-net-worth clients. Asset & Wealth Management (AWM) has become a more durable earnings contributor, with assets under supervision reaching $3.61 trillion and management fees hitting record levels. CEO David Solomon has emphasized that the firm's investment banking backlog entered 2026 at a four-year high, and the company raised its quarterly dividend by 12.5% to $4.50 per share. Total shareholder return since the 2020 Investor Day stands above 340%. With a book value per share of approximately $357.60, Goldman's stock has continued to attract institutional interest, though its premium valuation relative to historical norms has prompted mixed analyst price targets.
JEF Overview and Recent Performance
Jefferies Financial Group recorded $7.34 billion in net revenues for fiscal 2025 (ended November 30), representing 4.4% growth from the prior year. Adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations came in at $2.94, while the firm's adjusted return on adjusted tangible shareholders' equity (ROTCE) reached 10.4% for the full year. The year was notably a "tale of two halves": second-half investment banking net revenues exceeded first-half levels by over 50%, underscoring building momentum as macroeconomic and policy uncertainties eased.
Jefferies held its position as the world's sixth-largest investment bank and the largest independent pure-play investment banking platform. Advisory net revenues hit their second-best quarter on record in Q4 2025, and the firm served as advisor on marquee transactions including Eaton Corporation's $10 billion acquisition and AT&T's $23 billion wireless-asset deal. The equities franchise delivered record annual net revenues just shy of $2 billion. However, recent months have introduced notable headwinds. The collapse of auto parts maker First Brands and associated losses at the Point Bonita fund — which Jefferies advises and holds an equity stake in — led to a $30 million pre-tax write-down and contributed to regulatory scrutiny from the SEC and Department of Justice. The stock has faced downward pressure, and the firm's second-quarter fiscal 2026 results fell short of analyst expectations, partly due to lower asset management fees tied to Point Bonita. The SMBC (Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation) strategic alliance, which includes a planned increase in SMBC's equity stake to up to 20% and a Japan-based joint venture, remains a significant long-term catalyst.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most striking contrast between GS and JEF is one of scale and diversification. Goldman Sachs operates with a market capitalization approximately 28 times larger than Jefferies and generates revenues from a broader mix: investment banking, global markets trading, asset and wealth management, and a growing durable-fee base. Jefferies, by contrast, is a more concentrated investment banking and capital markets franchise, with asset management contributing a smaller single-digit percentage of total net revenues in certain periods.
On growth trajectory, Jefferies has delivered meaningful market share gains — ranking 6th globally in advisory and 6th in equity capital markets — and analysts project fiscal 2026 EPS growth that could substantially outpace Goldman's based on consensus estimates. However, Jefferies has also shown greater earnings volatility. Its fiscal first-half 2025 was challenged by tariff-driven uncertainty, and the Point Bonita matter introduced a reputational and legal overhang. Goldman's broader revenue base provides more consistent earnings, though its heavy reliance on mega-cap M&A means a slowdown in large-deal activity could have an outsized impact.
Valuation is another differentiator. Jefferies trades at a noticeably lower forward P/E multiple, reflecting both its smaller scale and the market's risk discount applied to the Point Bonita situation. Goldman commands a premium multiple but also delivers superior ROE (15.0% versus approximately 10.4% adjusted ROTCE for JEF in fiscal 2025) and has a longer track record of double-digit returns on equity. Risk factors also diverge: Goldman faces execution risk around sustaining its AWM growth targets, while Jefferies must navigate regulatory inquiries and restore confidence in its asset management oversight.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative market positioning, Tickeron's AI-driven analysis would likely favor GS in the current environment. Goldman Sachs benefits from a combination of factors that algorithmic models typically reward: a record investment banking backlog, improving ROE, strong capital-return activity including buybacks and a dividend increase, and a clear strategic focus following the consumer-banking exit. The stock's trend strength over the past twelve months has been materially stronger than Jefferies', and its diversified revenue base tends to produce more predictable earnings streams. That said, the AI framework would also recognize that JEF presents a statistically higher potential for outsized earnings growth in fiscal 2026, and its lower valuation multiple could attract mean-reversion and value-oriented strategies if the firm resolves its outstanding regulatory and reputational challenges. The probability-weighted assessment leans toward Goldman Sachs for stability and trend quality, while acknowledging Jefferies as a higher-beta alternative for investors willing to accept elevated uncertainty in exchange for potentially faster growth.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GS is a Buy and JEF is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GS’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileJEF’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- GS’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- JEF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GS’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while JEF’s TA Score has 8 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GS’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- JEF’s TA Score: 8 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
GS (@Investment Banks/Brokers) experienced а -0.37% price change this week, while JEF (@Investment Banks/Brokers) price change was +1.80% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was +0.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.77%, and the average quarterly price growth was -18.58%.
Reported Earning Dates
GS is expected to report earnings on Oct 13, 2026.
JEF is expected to report earnings on Sep 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Banks/Brokers (+0.63% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
| GS | JEF | GS / JEF | |
| Capitalization | 313B | 12.9B | 2,426% |
| EBITDA | N/A | 4.83B | - |
| Gain YTD | 21.902 | -8.483 | -258% |
| P/E Ratio | 16.39 | 15.60 | 105% |
| Revenue | 60.4B | 11.8B | 512% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 14.3B | - |
| Total Debt | 435B | 26.5B | 1,642% |
GS | JEF | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 57 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 82 Overvalued | 14 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 6 | 62 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 7 | 79 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 42 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 81 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
JEF's Valuation (14) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is significantly better than the same rating for GS (82). This means that JEF’s stock grew significantly faster than GS’s over the last 12 months.
GS's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for JEF (62). This means that GS’s stock grew somewhat faster than JEF’s over the last 12 months.
GS's SMR Rating (7) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is significantly better than the same rating for JEF (79). This means that GS’s stock grew significantly faster than JEF’s over the last 12 months.
GS's Price Growth Rating (42) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as JEF (52). This means that GS’s stock grew similarly to JEF’s over the last 12 months.
GS's P/E Growth Rating (44) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for JEF (81). This means that GS’s stock grew somewhat faster than JEF’s over the last 12 months.
| GS | JEF | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 79% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 48% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 62% | 6 days ago 76% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 65% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 52% | 3 days ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 74% |
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GS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GS has been closely correlated with MS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GS jumps, then MS could also see price increases.