Advertisement
HMC vs TM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Honda Motor (HMC) vs. Toyota Motor (TM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Toyota Motor (TM) is the favored ticker in this comparison, based on stronger trend consistency, profitability, and balance-sheet stability.
- Honda Motor (HMC) is undergoing a strategic reset after posting its first annual loss since its founding, pivoting from battery-electric vehicles toward hybrids.
- TM trades at a far larger market capitalization with a positive price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, while HMC currently shows negative trailing earnings.
- Both companies face shared headwinds, including U.S. tariff exposure and intensifying competition from Chinese electric-vehicle makers.
- For further context, explore HMC Major News and HMC Today's Price Move, as well as TM Major News and TM Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI-powered systems are trading these and other names, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Honda Motor (HMC) and Toyota Motor (TM) are two of Japan's most recognized automotive manufacturers, yet their current market positioning reflects two very different stages of the business cycle. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders evaluating relative performance within the global auto sector, particularly those weighing a stable, profitable incumbent against a company executing a high-stakes strategic turnaround. Both American depositary receipts (ADRs) are listed on the New York Stock Exchange, giving U.S.-based investors direct exposure to Japanese automakers. Understanding how these two companies differ in momentum, catalysts, and risk can help market participants assess which name offers more favorable risk-adjusted positioning in the current environment.
HMC Overview and Recent Performance
Honda Motor (HMC) manufactures automobiles, motorcycles, and power products, with automobiles contributing the majority of revenue and motorcycles representing a smaller but strategically important segment. In recent weeks, the company has drawn attention for a sharp strategic pivot: management is scaling back its earlier all-electric ambitions and shifting toward a hybrid-heavy lineup, with plans to introduce roughly 15 next-generation hybrid models by 2030.
This repositioning followed a difficult fiscal period in which Honda reported its first annual operating and net loss since its founding, driven in part by restructuring charges and losses tied to its electric-vehicle segment. Strong motorcycle sales and resilient financial-services income partially offset automotive weakness, but the earnings reset has pressured sentiment. The stock has also contended with a series of U.S. vehicle recalls and reports of internal leadership tensions, including a reported but ultimately unsuccessful effort by retired executives to remove the CEO. Despite these challenges, the shares have recovered from their 52-week lows in recent market activity, supported by a low price-to-book valuation and an attractive dividend yield.
TM Overview and Recent Performance
Toyota Motor (TM) is the world's largest automaker by sales volume, operating across the Toyota and Lexus brands with a diversified portfolio spanning passenger vehicles, hybrids, and commercial vehicles. Unlike Honda's loss-making reset, Toyota has remained consistently profitable, and in recent weeks management raised its annual operating-profit forecast, citing a weaker yen and strong hybrid sales. The company also announced a substantial share buyback, signaling confidence in its balance sheet.
Toyota has continued to broaden its growth initiatives beyond traditional vehicles, advancing an autonomous-driving collaboration with Waymo and forming a manufacturing joint venture with Joby Aviation for electric air-taxi production. The stock has nevertheless faced headwinds, including five consecutive quarters of year-over-year operating-profit declines and softer global sales amid weakness in China and the Middle East. A steady dividend yield, a low trailing P/E ratio, and a substantial net cash position have provided support even as the shares trade below their recent highs.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page showcases a curated selection of the platform's AI-powered trading bots. Tickeron offers hundreds of AI Trading Bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, but only a subset earns a place in this featured section—those best suited to current market conditions. These bots span a wide range of trading styles, strategies, timeframes, performance metrics, and statistical profiles, and each is configured around its own set of tickers. By focusing on bots whose models currently align with prevailing market dynamics, the page helps traders identify systematic approaches that are actively trending. Explore the Trending AI Robots page to review the available bots and their performance data.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The contrast between HMC and TM is defined less by their shared industry than by their divergent financial profiles. Toyota is dramatically larger in scale, with a market capitalization several times that of Honda, and it generates positive earnings that support a conventional P/E ratio. Honda, by contrast, is currently navigating a loss-making transition, which leaves its trailing earnings in negative territory and its valuation anchored to book value and forward recovery expectations.
Growth drivers also differ. Toyota's catalysts center on hybrid leadership, buybacks, and adjacent ventures such as autonomous driving and air mobility, while Honda's story rests on a turnaround thesis built around hybrid expansion and cost discipline. On risk, both companies face U.S. tariff exposure and competitive pressure from Chinese electric-vehicle producers, but Honda carries the added uncertainty of restructuring execution and recent recall activity. In terms of momentum, Toyota's profitability and scale offer greater stability, whereas Honda offers a lower valuation and potentially higher recovery upside if its reset succeeds.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, balance-sheet strength, and the clarity of near-term catalysts, Tickeron's AI currently favors Toyota Motor (TM) over Honda Motor (HMC). Toyota's combination of sustained profitability, an upward earnings revision, shareholder-friendly capital returns, and a robust net cash position suggests a more durable trend profile than Honda's ongoing turnaround. While Honda's low valuation and hybrid pivot may present a recovery opportunity, its recent losses and restructuring-related uncertainty introduce greater variability. Accordingly, the AI verdict leans toward TM as the comparatively stronger candidate, framed in probabilistic terms rather than as a definitive outcome.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HMC is a StrongBuy and TM is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for HMC turns positive, indicating new upward trend
HMC saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 94 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 61 of the 94 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 65%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
HMC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.18% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HMC advanced for three days, in 167 of 306 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 157 of 254 cases where HMC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for HMC moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 21 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 54%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 26 of 59 cases where HMC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for HMC turned negative on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 22 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 49%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HMC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
HMC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HMC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HMC’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.004) is normal, around the industry mean (1.986). P/E Ratio (-0.309) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.717). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.454) is also within normal values, averaging (2.450). Dividend Yield (0.087) settles around the average of (0.143) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.299) is also within normal values, averaging (2.648).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
TM in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
TM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 26 of 42 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TM as a result. In 52 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TM just turned positive on October 13, 2026. Looking at past instances where TM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The 10-day moving average for TM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Following a +3.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TM advanced for three days, in 168 of 312 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 89 of 194 cases where TM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 46%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 30 of 64 cases where TM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
TM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 13 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.006) is normal, around the industry mean (1.986). P/E Ratio (0.056) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.717). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.556) is also within normal values, averaging (2.450). Dividend Yield (0.041) settles around the average of (0.143) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.733) is also within normal values, averaging (2.648).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
HMC | TM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 82 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 91 Overvalued | 77 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 69 | 76 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 86 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 8 | 13 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TM's Valuation (77) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as HMC (91). This means that TM’s stock grew similarly to HMC’s over the last 12 months.
HMC's Profit vs Risk Rating (69) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as TM (76). This means that HMC’s stock grew similarly to TM’s over the last 12 months.
TM's SMR Rating (58) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as HMC (86). This means that TM’s stock grew similarly to HMC’s over the last 12 months.
HMC's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as TM (48). This means that HMC’s stock grew similarly to TM’s over the last 12 months.
HMC's P/E Growth Rating (97) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as TM (97). This means that HMC’s stock grew similarly to TM’s over the last 12 months.
| HMC | TM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 52% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 19 days ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 50% | 7 days ago 52% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 38% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 46% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HMC’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while TM’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- HMC’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- TM’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HMC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TM’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HMC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TM’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
HMC (@Motor Vehicles) experienced а -0.20% price change this week, while TM (@Motor Vehicles) price change was -0.92% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Motor Vehicles industry was +0.14%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -13.27%, and the average quarterly price growth was -32.51%.
Reported Earning Dates
HMC is expected to report earnings on Nov 06, 2026.
TM is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Motor Vehicles (+0.14% weekly)Automobiles continue to be arguably the most popular form of passenger travel in the U.S., and major automobile makers have revenues and market capitalizations running into multi-billions. In recent years, the industry has been experiencing some path-breaking innovations like electric vehicles and self-driving technology. While there are long-standing companies like General Motors, Ford, and Toyota Motors operating in this space, there are also emerging/rapidly growing players like Tesla – which has had a major role in the growing popularity of the electric vehicle market. With technological advancements taking steam in the auto space, we’ve also witnessed collaborations (or talks of potential partnerships) of carmakers with tech behemoths like Google’s subsidiary, Waymo.
Advertisement
HMC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HMC has been closely correlated with TM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HMC jumps, then TM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HMC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMC | 100% | +0.97% | ||
| TM - HMC | 74% Closely correlated | +0.06% | ||
| GM - HMC | 47% Loosely correlated | +2.91% | ||
| F - HMC | 46% Loosely correlated | +2.86% | ||
| RACE - HMC | 42% Loosely correlated | +1.79% | ||
| RIVN - HMC | 32% Poorly correlated | +8.47% | ||
More | ||||
TM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TM has been closely correlated with HMC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TM jumps, then HMC could also see price increases.