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HMC vs TM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Honda Motor Co. (HMC) vs. Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HMC trades around $24.51 with a market cap of $31.8 billion, showing YTD returns of about 17% but down from 52-week high of $34.89 amid EV strategy challenges.
- TM is priced near $187.53 with a $222 billion market cap, YTD up roughly 13% yet facing profit pressures from U.S. tariffs, with a 52-week range of $167.18–$248.90.
- Both stocks exhibit low beta (HMC 0.27–0.44, TM 0.33), PE ratios around 10 (HMC 10.26, TM 9.94), and attractive dividend yields, appealing for value-oriented investors in the auto sector.
- Recent market activity reflects tariff impacts and cost pressures, with TM reporting 19–21.5% net income drops despite strong sales, while HMC deals with EV impairments.
- TM demonstrates greater scale and hybrid strength, while HMC offers diversification via motorcycles and power products.
- Tickeron's AI analysis leans toward TM for relative stability and momentum in recent trends.
Introduction
Honda Motor Co. (HMC) and Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) are leading Japanese automakers competing in global markets for vehicles, hybrids, and emerging electrification. This stock comparison evaluates their recent performance, financial metrics, and market positioning amid U.S. tariffs, supply chain pressures, and shifting consumer demand toward hybrids. Traders seeking value in the cyclical auto sector and long-term investors eyeing dividend stability will find insights into relative strengths, risks, and AI-driven perspectives on which may offer better positioning in the current environment.
HMC Overview and Recent Performance
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) engages in motorcycles, automobiles, financial services, and power products worldwide. In recent market activity, shares have traded around $24.51, up 1.87% in the latest session but down significantly from the 52-week high of $34.89, reflecting broader auto sector headwinds. Year-to-date returns stand at approximately 17%, with a trailing PE of 10.26 and market cap of $31.8 billion. Sentiment has been influenced by EV strategy revisions, including impairments on North American models and the end of the Afeela project with Sony, alongside weaker U.S. sales in April (down 0.2% to 137,405 units). Q3 FY2026 showed record unit sales but auto losses due to EV expenses and tariffs, maintaining a full-year operating profit forecast of ¥550 billion. A low beta of 0.27 underscores stability, bolstered by a 5.82% dividend yield.
TM Overview and Recent Performance
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) designs, manufactures, and sells vehicles, batteries, and financial services globally under Toyota and Lexus brands. Shares recently closed at $187.53, down 0.78% amid earnings reactions, within a 52-week range of $167.18–$248.90 and a market cap of $222 billion. YTD performance is around 13%, with a PE of 9.94 (TTM EPS $18.87). Recent weeks have seen pressure from FY2026 results: 19% net income decline to ¥3.85 trillion despite ¥50.68 trillion revenue and 9.6 million unit sales, driven by U.S. tariffs (¥1.38 trillion operating profit hit, 21.5% drop) and costs. Q4 profit missed estimates by a wide margin (49% slump), with conservative FY2027 guidance. Hybrid demand and share buybacks provide support, with beta at 0.33 indicating resilience.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both HMC and TM operate in the competitive auto sector, emphasizing hybrids amid slowing EV adoption, but differ in scale and diversification. TM's larger business model drives higher revenue (¥50.68T TTM vs. HMC's ¥21.34T) and global sales leadership, with growth from hybrids and hydrogen tech offsetting tariff risks estimated at $9 billion. HMC counters with motorcycles (strong profits) and power products, reducing auto reliance. Recent momentum favors neither decisively, with both YTD positive but off highs due to U.S. sales softness and costs; TM shows better 3-year returns (~38–44%). Risks include tariffs and USMCA uncertainty for affordable models, though TM's hybrid exposure bolsters sentiment. Sector-wise, both benefit from Japan auto resilience but face China EV competition.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors TM over HMC, based on superior scale, consistent hybrid-driven trend stability, larger market cap positioning, and relative momentum despite tariff headwinds. Observable factors like higher revenue base, buyback activity, and broader growth catalysts suggest higher probability of outperformance in the near term, though HMC's diversification tempers downside risk.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HMC is a StrongBuy and TM is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HMC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileTM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- HMC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HMC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HMC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
HMC (@Motor Vehicles) experienced а -5.77% price change this week, while TM (@Motor Vehicles) price change was -4.54% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Motor Vehicles industry was -8.13%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was -23.33%.
Reported Earning Dates
HMC is expected to report earnings on Aug 12, 2026.
TM is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Motor Vehicles (-8.13% weekly)Automobiles continue to be arguably the most popular form of passenger travel in the U.S., and major automobile makers have revenues and market capitalizations running into multi-billions. In recent years, the industry has been experiencing some path-breaking innovations like electric vehicles and self-driving technology. While there are long-standing companies like General Motors, Ford, and Toyota Motors operating in this space, there are also emerging/rapidly growing players like Tesla – which has had a major role in the growing popularity of the electric vehicle market. With technological advancements taking steam in the auto space, we’ve also witnessed collaborations (or talks of potential partnerships) of carmakers with tech behemoths like Google’s subsidiary, Waymo.
| HMC | TM | HMC / TM | |
| Capitalization | 34.9B | 229B | 15% |
| EBITDA | 1.77T | 7.63T | 23% |
| Gain YTD | -11.431 | -19.635 | 58% |
| P/E Ratio | 10.24 | 9.34 | 110% |
| Revenue | 21.34T | 50.69T | 42% |
| Total Cash | 5.04T | 16.64T | 30% |
| Total Debt | N/A | 43.21T | - |
HMC | TM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 39 | 53 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 17 Undervalued | 10 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 78 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 54 | 72 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 18 | 29 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TM's Valuation (10) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as HMC (17). This means that TM’s stock grew similarly to HMC’s over the last 12 months.
TM's Profit vs Risk Rating (78) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as HMC (100). This means that TM’s stock grew similarly to HMC’s over the last 12 months.
TM's SMR Rating (100) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as HMC (100). This means that TM’s stock grew similarly to HMC’s over the last 12 months.
HMC's Price Growth Rating (54) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as TM (72). This means that HMC’s stock grew similarly to TM’s over the last 12 months.
HMC's P/E Growth Rating (18) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as TM (29). This means that HMC’s stock grew similarly to TM’s over the last 12 months.
| HMC | TM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 49% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 50% | 14 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 54% | 6 days ago 51% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 48% |
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HMC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HMC has been closely correlated with TM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HMC jumps, then TM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HMC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMC | 100% | -2.25% | ||
| TM - HMC | 79% Closely correlated | -2.13% | ||
| GM - HMC | 43% Loosely correlated | -5.21% | ||
| F - HMC | 39% Loosely correlated | -4.35% | ||
| STLA - HMC | 30% Poorly correlated | -6.68% | ||
| BLBD - HMC | 27% Poorly correlated | -3.44% | ||
More | ||||
TM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TM has been closely correlated with HMC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TM jumps, then HMC could also see price increases.