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HMC vs TM
HMC vs TM Stock Comparison: Hybrids vs EVs in Tariff Era
Key Takeaways
- HMC (Honda Motor Co.) YTD return of 7.29%, lagging TM's 15.56% amid EV restructuring costs and tariffs.
- TM (Toyota Motor Corp.) shows stronger 1-year gain at 37.42% versus HMC's 13.58%, buoyed by hybrid demand.
- Recent Q3 earnings: HMC beat EPS estimates but auto segment posted losses from EV writedowns; TM revenues rose despite profit dip from tariffs.
- Both face U.S. tariff pressures, but TM's hybrid focus provides relative stability over HMC's EV challenges.
- Market caps: TM at $323B dwarfs HMC's $41B, reflecting scale advantages in global sales.
- Tickeron's AI tools highlight adaptive strategies amid auto sector volatility.
Introduction
HMC (Honda Motor Co.) and TM (Toyota Motor Corp.) represent two pillars of Japan's automotive giants, both navigating a shifting landscape of electrification, trade tariffs, and hybrid resurgence. This HMC vs TM stock comparison examines their relative performance, business strategies, and market positioning in recent market activity. Traders seeking momentum plays and long-term investors eyeing sector stability will find value in contrasting their EV exposures, sales resilience, and responses to U.S. policy headwinds. With global auto demand favoring hybrids amid cooling EV enthusiasm, understanding these dynamics aids informed decisions on stock comparison and relative performance.
HMC Overview and Recent Performance
Honda Motor Co. (HMC), a global leader in motorcycles and automobiles, has faced headwinds in recent weeks from EV strategy shifts and U.S. tariffs. The company's Q3 FY2026 earnings showed EPS of $0.76, beating estimates despite revenues declining to $34.7B year-over-year, driven by an 8.8% drop in auto segment sales to $22.3B. The auto division swung to a ¥93.4B operating loss due to one-time EV impairments and tariff impacts, partially offset by strong motorcycle profits up 13.1% in revenue. Stock traded around $31.78, with YTD return at 7.29% lagging the Nikkei 225's 12.37%. Sentiment reflects caution over EV writedowns nearing $4.5B annually and China sales weakness, though full-year operating profit guidance holds at ¥550B.
TM Overview and Recent Performance
Toyota Motor Corp. (TM), the world's largest automaker by volume, continues leveraging its hybrid dominance amid recent market activity. Q3 FY2026 revenues climbed to $87.36B, up from prior year, with automotive sales rising 6% to $77.4B, though EPS missed at $6.26 versus expectations. Operating profit dipped 6.5% to ¥935B due to tariffs and costs, but financial services grew 22.5%. Shares hovered near $248.29, boasting YTD 15.56% return outperforming Nikkei and 37.42% over one year. Hybrid output plans surge by 2028, supporting sentiment amid EV slowdowns and tariff hits estimated at ¥1,450B full-year, with raised FY guidance signaling resilience.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
HMC and TM share Japanese auto roots but diverge in scale and strategy. TM's $323B market cap versus HMC's $41B underscores superior global reach, with P/E ratios near 13 reflecting balanced valuations. Growth drivers favor TM's hybrids, planning 6.7M units by 2028 amid EV demand cools, while HMC grapples with $4.5B EV losses and auto segment deficits. Recent momentum tilts to TM's 7-9% monthly gains over HMC's flatter trend. Risk factors include mutual tariff exposures—HMC at ¥310B reduced impact, TM at ¥1,450B—but TM's financial services buffer adds stability. Sector exposure mirrors autos, yet TM's hybrid narrative boosts sentiment versus HMC's EV pivot trade-offs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors TM over HMC, citing superior trend consistency, YTD outperformance, and hybrid catalysts amid tariff volatility. TM's raised FY outlook and scale provide probabilistic edge in relative positioning, though both warrant monitoring for policy shifts.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HMC is a Hold and TM is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HMC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileTM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- HMC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HMC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HMC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
HMC (@Motor Vehicles) experienced а -9.68% price change this week, while TM (@Motor Vehicles) price change was -9.59% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Motor Vehicles industry was -3.08%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was -14.46%.
Reported Earning Dates
HMC is expected to report earnings on May 13, 2026.
TM is expected to report earnings on May 13, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Motor Vehicles (-3.08% weekly)Automobiles continue to be arguably the most popular form of passenger travel in the U.S., and major automobile makers have revenues and market capitalizations running into multi-billions. In recent years, the industry has been experiencing some path-breaking innovations like electric vehicles and self-driving technology. While there are long-standing companies like General Motors, Ford, and Toyota Motors operating in this space, there are also emerging/rapidly growing players like Tesla – which has had a major role in the growing popularity of the electric vehicle market. With technological advancements taking steam in the auto space, we’ve also witnessed collaborations (or talks of potential partnerships) of carmakers with tech behemoths like Google’s subsidiary, Waymo.
| HMC | TM | HMC / TM | |
| Capitalization | 35.8B | 328B | 11% |
| EBITDA | 2.02T | 7.47T | 27% |
| Gain YTD | -7.598 | 2.373 | -320% |
| P/E Ratio | 11.46 | 12.15 | 94% |
| Revenue | 21.52T | 50.45T | 43% |
| Total Cash | 4.84T | 16.59T | 29% |
| Total Debt | N/A | 42.13T | - |
HMC | TM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 28 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 29 Undervalued | 31 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 89 | 55 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 71 | 65 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 79 | 53 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 13 | 13 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 14 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HMC's Valuation (29) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as TM (31). This means that HMC’s stock grew similarly to TM’s over the last 12 months.
TM's Profit vs Risk Rating (55) in the Motor Vehicles industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HMC (89). This means that TM’s stock grew somewhat faster than HMC’s over the last 12 months.
TM's SMR Rating (65) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as HMC (71). This means that TM’s stock grew similarly to HMC’s over the last 12 months.
TM's Price Growth Rating (53) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as HMC (79). This means that TM’s stock grew similarly to HMC’s over the last 12 months.
TM's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as HMC (13). This means that TM’s stock grew similarly to HMC’s over the last 12 months.
| HMC | TM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 42% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 48% | 3 days ago 55% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 46% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 44% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | N/A | 11 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 52% | 3 days ago 47% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 72% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 49% | 3 days ago 61% |
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HMC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HMC has been closely correlated with TM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HMC jumps, then TM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HMC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMC | 100% | -0.84% | ||
| TM - HMC | 84% Closely correlated | -1.06% | ||
| FUJHY - HMC | 64% Loosely correlated | -0.24% | ||
| MZDAY - HMC | 63% Loosely correlated | -1.61% | ||
| TOYOF - HMC | 58% Loosely correlated | -3.52% | ||
| NSANY - HMC | 57% Loosely correlated | +1.50% | ||
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