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HOMB vs ONB
Home BancShares (HOMB) vs Old National Bancorp (ONB) Earnings Preview: Q1 Insights Ahead
Key Takeaways
- Both HOMB and ONB report Q1 2026 earnings soon, with HOMB on April 15 and ONB on April 22.
- Analysts expect HOMB Q1 EPS of $0.59-$0.60 on $272-$274 million revenue, signaling 7% EPS growth year-over-year.
- ONB consensus points to EPS around $0.60, with focus on loan growth and deposit cost control post-Bremer integration.
- HOMB boasts superior ROA (2.05% full-year 2025) and efficiency vs. ONB's larger $72 billion asset base.
- Regional banking peers face NII (net interest income) pressures, but both show resilient credit quality and capital.
- Tickeron AI favors HOMB for higher profitability margins in the near term.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
Home BancShares (HOMB), parent of Centennial Bank, and Old National Bancorp (ONB), holding company for Old National Bank, are regional banks serving the Midwest and Southeast. Both operate in competitive markets emphasizing commercial lending, deposits, and community focus. Earnings reports provide insights into NII trends amid rate environments, loan growth, deposit betas (sensitivity to rate changes), and provision for credit losses (PCL). HOMB's smaller, high-ROA profile contrasts ONB's scale from recent M&A (mergers and acquisitions), making this timely as Q1 results test operational efficiency and growth.
Home BancShares Focus
Home BancShares (HOMB) releases Q1 2026 earnings on April 15 after market close, followed by a conference call on April 16. Analysts forecast EPS of $0.59-$0.60, up 7% from prior year, with revenue near $272-$274 million, reflecting 4.6% growth. Building on Q4 2025 strength—$0.60 EPS, $284 million revenue, $118 million net income—HOMB achieved full-year ROA of 2.05% and ROE of 11%, with $22.9 billion assets and record $15.7 billion loans (up sequentially). Efficiency remains elite under 40%, supported by robust NIM (net interest margin). Investors watch loan expansion and deposit stability in Q1.
Old National Bancorp Context
Old National Bancorp (ONB) reports Q1 2026 on April 22. While specific Q1 consensus is limited, full-year 2025 adjusted EPS hit records at $2.21, with Q4 adjusted EPS $0.62 (beat estimates). ONB's $72 billion assets dwarf HOMB, fueled by Bremer acquisition, yielding Q4 adjusted ROA 1.37%, ROTCE (return on tangible common equity) 19.9%, and efficiency 46%. Loans grew 6.4% annualized, deposits stable, NCOs (net charge-offs) low at 16 bps excluding PCD (purchased credit deteriorated). Recent performance shows NII resilience, CET1 (common equity tier 1) 11.08%, positioning for organic growth.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
HOMB edges in profitability: 2025 ROA 2.05% vs. ONB's 1.37% Q4 adjusted, ROE 11% vs. ONB's higher ROTCE from scale. HOMB's $5.7B market cap yields P/E 11.6, tighter efficiency; ONB's $9.2B cap, P/E 13.1 reflects growth potential. Both grew loans—HOMB to $15.7B, ONB 6.4% annualized—but ONB's deposit franchise (75% core >5 years tenure) aids beta control. Credit risk low: HOMB PCL tied to growth, ONB ACL (allowance for credit losses) 1.24%. Sentiment positive, analysts target HOMB $33, ONB $27; HOMB favored for margins, ONB for diversification.
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI currently favors HOMB (65% probability) over ONB due to superior earnings quality, higher ROA/ROE stability, and trend strength in a rate-stable environment, though ONB's scale offers upside if M&A synergies accelerate.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HOMB is a Hold and ONB is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HOMB’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileONB’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- HOMB’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ONB’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HOMB’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ONB’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HOMB’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ONB’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
HOMB (@Regional Banks) experienced а -0.10% price change this week, while ONB (@Regional Banks) price change was +0.46% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +0.78%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.89%, and the average quarterly price growth was +17.58%.
Reported Earning Dates
HOMB is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
ONB is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+0.78% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| HOMB | ONB | HOMB / ONB | |
| Capitalization | 5.78B | 10B | 58% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 4.802 | 17.976 | 27% |
| P/E Ratio | 11.43 | 12.89 | 89% |
| Revenue | 1.08B | 2.74B | 40% |
| Total Cash | 237M | 537M | 44% |
| Total Debt | 780M | 7.36B | 11% |
HOMB | ONB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 39 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 44 Fair valued | 45 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 60 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 27 | 16 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 67 | 47 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HOMB's Valuation (44) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as ONB (45). This means that HOMB’s stock grew similarly to ONB’s over the last 12 months.
ONB's Profit vs Risk Rating (34) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as HOMB (60). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to HOMB’s over the last 12 months.
ONB's SMR Rating (16) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as HOMB (27). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to HOMB’s over the last 12 months.
ONB's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as HOMB (50). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to HOMB’s over the last 12 months.
ONB's P/E Growth Rating (47) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as HOMB (67). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to HOMB’s over the last 12 months.
| HOMB | ONB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 74% | 5 days ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 61% | 5 days ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 5 days ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 5 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 55% | 5 days ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 49% | 5 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 57% | 12 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 53% | N/A |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 72% | 5 days ago 67% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 47% | 5 days ago 50% |
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HOMB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HOMB has been closely correlated with INDB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HOMB jumps, then INDB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HOMB | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOMB | 100% | -0.76% | ||
| INDB - HOMB | 88% Closely correlated | -0.96% | ||
| FNB - HOMB | 86% Closely correlated | -2.06% | ||
| FULT - HOMB | 86% Closely correlated | -1.43% | ||
| UBSI - HOMB | 86% Closely correlated | -1.19% | ||
| UCB - HOMB | 85% Closely correlated | -1.55% | ||
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ONB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONB has been closely correlated with ASB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ONB jumps, then ASB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONB | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONB | 100% | -0.88% | ||
| ASB - ONB | 91% Closely correlated | -1.86% | ||
| FNB - ONB | 90% Closely correlated | -2.06% | ||
| ZION - ONB | 88% Closely correlated | -1.91% | ||
| FULT - ONB | 88% Closely correlated | -1.43% | ||
| CATY - ONB | 88% Closely correlated | -1.53% | ||
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