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HON vs MDU
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Honeywell International (HON) vs. MDU Resources Group (MDU) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different market tiers: Honeywell International (HON) is a large-cap global industrial and automation company, while MDU Resources Group (MDU) is a small-cap regulated utility and pipeline operator.
- Transformation vs. steady utility: Honeywell has just completed a major portfolio reshaping, separating its aerospace business to become a pure-play automation company, while MDU is executing a stable, rate-based growth plan.
- Growth profiles differ sharply: Honeywell is tied to industrial automation, AI, and energy transition demand; MDU is tied to regulated returns, data-center load, and pipeline expansion.
- Income characteristics: MDU offers a higher dividend yield near 3%, while Honeywell provides a lower yield with a more growth-oriented equity story.
- Risk and volatility: Honeywell carries cyclical and execution risk around its post-separation strategy; MDU carries regulatory and project-financing risk around its proposed Bakken East Pipeline.
- AI's focus: Observable trend consistency and catalyst visibility currently appear stronger for one name, as detailed in the verdict below.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two very different publicly traded companies: Honeywell International (HON), a global industrial and technology leader, and MDU Resources Group (MDU), a diversified energy-delivery and regulated utility business. Investors evaluating relative performance and market positioning often weigh a cyclical, innovation-driven industrial against a defensive, income-oriented utility. Growth investors may find Honeywell's automation and AI transformation compelling, while income-focused and lower-volatility investors may gravitate toward MDU's regulated cash flows. Understanding how these businesses differ in model, catalysts, and risk helps clarify which profile aligns with current market conditions.
Honeywell International (HON) Overview and Recent Performance
Honeywell International (HON), headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, is a global technology and industrial company focused on automation, control systems, and software-enabled operational solutions. Recent market activity has been dominated by a sweeping portfolio reshaping. The company completed the separation of its aerospace business, now trading independently under the ticker "HONA," positioning Honeywell as a pure-play automation company serving commercial buildings, factories, and industrial facilities.
In recent weeks, sentiment has centered on the launch of Forge Cognition, an AI and simulation platform built with technology from Nvidia and Dell that targets the company's installed base of more than 300,000 sites. The automation business has also reported strengthening orders and a backlog of roughly $20 billion, alongside the announced sale of its Warehouse and Workflow Solutions unit. These moves have kept Honeywell in the headlines, though the post-separation earnings base is smaller and carries execution uncertainty, leaving the stock's relative performance mixed over recent months.
MDU Resources Group (MDU) Overview and Recent Performance
MDU Resources Group (MDU), based in Bismarck, North Dakota, delivers electric and natural gas utility services to more than 1.2 million customers across the Pacific Northwest and Midwest, and operates a pipeline network spanning over 3,800 miles in the Northern Plains. It is a member of the S&P SmallCap 600 index.
Recent performance has been steady but weather-sensitive. First-quarter 2026 net income was $80.8 million, or $0.39 per share (EPS), slightly below the prior-year period as milder winter weather reduced results by about $0.03 per share. The company reaffirmed full-year 2026 EPS guidance of $0.93 to $1.00 and its long-term EPS growth target of 6% to 8%. Sentiment has been shaped by progress on the proposed Bakken East Pipeline, a potential $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion project that drew roughly 1.4 billion cubic feet per day of interest, and by rising data-center demand, with about 580 megawatts (MW) under signed electric service agreements.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is their business model. Honeywell (HON) is an industrial technology company whose revenue depends on automation demand, project timing, and adoption of AI-enabled software. MDU (MDU) is a regulated utility and pipeline operator whose earnings are driven by rate recovery, customer growth, and long-term contracted infrastructure. In terms of relative performance, Honeywell has experienced greater volatility tied to its separation and restructuring, whereas MDU has traded in a comparatively tighter range consistent with its defensive, income-oriented profile.
Growth drivers also differ. Honeywell's catalysts include AI platform adoption, energy transition, and order and backlog conversion. MDU's catalysts include the Bakken East Pipeline, data-center load growth, and a $3.1 billion five-year capital plan. On the risk side, Honeywell faces post-separation execution uncertainty and cyclical exposure, while MDU faces regulatory approvals, weather variability, and the financing and approval risk of a multi-billion-dollar pipeline project. Sector exposure rounds out the contrast: Honeywell sits in industrials and technology, while MDU sits in utilities and energy infrastructure.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, catalyst visibility, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward Honeywell (HON) at this stage. The completed separation has clarified its identity as a focused automation business, and its AI platform launch, strengthening orders, and roughly $20 billion backlog provide tangible, forward-looking catalysts that a trend-following model can measure. MDU (MDU) offers a more stable, income-oriented profile, but its near-term performance is influenced by weather and its largest growth catalyst remains an unfinalized investment decision. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: the relative ranking could shift as earnings, regulatory outcomes, and project milestones unfold.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HON is a Hold and MDU is a Buy.
HON in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
HON moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 25 of 38 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for HON crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +2.10% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HON advanced for three days, in 145 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 105 of 246 cases where HON Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 43%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for HON moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 16 of the 32 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 50%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 32 of 60 cases where HON's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HON as a result. In 53 of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HON declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
HON broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. HON’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.762) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.539). P/E Ratio (8.493) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.091). HON's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.457) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.772). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (715.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.742) is also within normal values, averaging (2.059).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HON’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
MDU in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on November 05, 2026
MDU may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 25 of 34 cases where MDU's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for MDU crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +0.56% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MDU advanced for three days, in 193 of 334 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 137 of 256 cases where MDU Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 54%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MDU moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 34 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 59%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 27 of 60 cases where MDU's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MDU as a result. In 47 of 97 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MDU turned negative on November 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 19 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 43%.
MDU moved below its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MDU declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 43, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 56 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.339) is normal, around the industry mean (1.429). P/E Ratio (19.611) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.359). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.360) is also within normal values, averaging (1.861). Dividend Yield (0.031) settles around the average of (0.037) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.114) is also within normal values, averaging (2.205).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. MDU’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
HON | MDU | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 44 | 28 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 77 Overvalued | 56 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 13 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 22 | 79 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 63 | 69 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 93 | 62 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MDU's Valuation (56) in the Gas Distributors industry is in the same range as HON (77) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that MDU’s stock grew similarly to HON’s over the last 12 months.
MDU's Profit vs Risk Rating (13) in the Gas Distributors industry is significantly better than the same rating for HON (100) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that MDU’s stock grew significantly faster than HON’s over the last 12 months.
HON's SMR Rating (22) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MDU (79) in the Gas Distributors industry. This means that HON’s stock grew somewhat faster than MDU’s over the last 12 months.
HON's Price Growth Rating (63) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as MDU (69) in the Gas Distributors industry. This means that HON’s stock grew similarly to MDU’s over the last 12 months.
MDU's P/E Growth Rating (62) in the Gas Distributors industry is in the same range as HON (93) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that MDU’s stock grew similarly to HON’s over the last 12 months.
| HON | MDU | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 45% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 48% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 43% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 46% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 39% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 46% | 6 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 50% | 25 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 54% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HON’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while MDU’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- HON’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MDU’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HON’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MDU’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HON’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MDU’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
HON (@Industrial Conglomerates) experienced а +0.79% price change this week, while MDU (@Gas Distributors) price change was -5.53% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Conglomerates industry was +0.28%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.43%, and the average quarterly price growth was -10.21%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Gas Distributors industry was +0.22%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.09%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.97%.
Reported Earning Dates
HON is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
MDU is expected to report earnings on Feb 11, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Conglomerates (+0.28% weekly)Industrial Conglomerates specialize in numerous types of products, most of which comprise industrial goods, while some also go towards meeting household needs. Honeywell (makes engineering services and aerospace systems), United Technologies Corporation(manufactures aircraft engines, aerospace systems, HVAC, elevators and escalators, fire and security, building systems, and industrial products, among others), 3M (over 60,000 products under several world-renowned brands, including adhesives, abrasives, laminates, passive fire protection, personal protective equipment, window films, paint protection films, dental and orthodontic products, electrical & electronic connecting and insulating materials, medical products, car-care products, electronic circuits, healthcare software and optical films).
@Gas Distributors (+0.22% weekly)Gas distributors are involved in moving and selling gas – from wellheads or over-distribution systems operated by other firms – to residential and non-residential customers. These companies perform tasks such as the gathering and processing of gas, intrastate and interstate transport, and delivery to the customer. Some of the biggest gas distributing companies in the U.S. include Sempra Energy, Avangrid Inc and Atmos Energy Corporation.
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MDU and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MDU has been loosely correlated with BKH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 54% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MDU jumps, then BKH could also see price increases.
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| Thornburg International Growth Fund ETF (TXUG) | |||
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| XAGG | 48.69 | 0.09 | +0.20% |
| Eaton Vance Income Opportunities ETF (XAGG) | |||
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