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MDU vs TRC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? MDU Resources Group (MDU) vs. Tejon Ranch Co. (TRC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MDU is a regulated utility and energy infrastructure company, while TRC is a diversified California land, real estate development, and agribusiness company.
- MDU offers a steadier earnings profile with a ~3% dividend yield, whereas TRC carries no dividend and its results swing with land sales and development timing.
- MDU's growth narrative is anchored by the proposed Bakken East Pipeline and data-center load; TRC's hinges on industrial leasing, water monetization, and long-dated master-planned communities.
- TRC's valuation (P/E above 70) reflects asset value and development optionality, while MDU trades near a ~20x P/E with more predictable cash flows.
- Relative momentum recently favored MDU's consistency, while TRC has posted sharp year-over-year earnings improvement from a smaller base.
Introduction
Investors weighing stability against optionality may find a useful contrast in MDU and TRC. MDU Resources Group operates regulated electric and natural gas utilities alongside a pipeline business across the Upper Midwest and Mountain West. Tejon Ranch Co. controls one of California's largest private land holdings and develops commercial, industrial, and residential projects while running farming and mineral-resources operations. These are fundamentally different businesses, yet both are often evaluated on long-horizon catalysts. This stock comparison examines recent relative performance, market positioning, and the growth drivers that could shape how each performs in the months ahead.
MDU Overview and Recent Performance
MDU Resources Group is a pure-play energy and utilities company after spinning off its construction business in late 2024. Its electric, natural gas distribution, and pipeline segments serve customers in Montana, the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wyoming, Idaho, and Washington. In recent quarters, earnings have been solid but modestly pressured by mild weather and higher operating costs. First-quarter 2026 net income was $80.8 million ($0.39 per share), slightly below the prior year, while second-quarter net income rose sharply to $21.3 million.
Management has reaffirmed full-year 2026 earnings guidance of $0.93 to $1.00 per share and a long-term earnings-per-share (EPS) growth target of 6% to 8%. The most closely watched catalyst is the proposed Bakken East Pipeline, a $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion project that has drawn roughly 1.4 billion cubic feet per day of customer interest, including a firm commitment from the state of North Dakota. Data-center demand is another tailwind, with 580 megawatts under signed electric service agreements. The stock trades near the low end of its 52-week range, reflecting a defensive, yield-oriented profile.
TRC Overview and Recent Performance
Tejon Ranch Co. is a diversified real estate and agribusiness enterprise built around roughly 270,000 acres of California land. Its Tejon Ranch Commerce Center anchors an industrial portfolio that is essentially fully leased, while its commercial and outlet retail assets, Terra Vista multifamily community, and mineral-resources royalties contribute recurring income. Recent results have improved markedly: second-quarter 2026 revenue rose about 72% year over year to $14.3 million, and the company returned to profitability with net income of $2.6 million ($0.10 per share) versus a loss a year earlier.
Trailing twelve-month adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) climbed 21% to roughly $29.8 million, helped by cost reductions and a land sale into an industrial joint venture. Outlet traffic and sales have been lifted by the nearby Hard Rock Casino Tejon, and Terra Vista leasing has crossed 80% occupancy. Still, results remain lumpy, and the long-dated Centennial and Mountain Village residential projects carry regulatory and litigation risk that keeps near-term earnings volatile.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge sharply on business model, sector exposure, and risk profile. MDU's regulated utility earnings are comparatively predictable and supported by rate recovery mechanisms, giving it lower beta (roughly 0.6) and a dividend yield near 3%. Its main risks are weather variability, rate-case outcomes, and the execution and financing of large pipeline projects. TRC operates in industrials and real estate, with earnings tied to land sales, leasing velocity, commodity-linked farming, and the California entitlement process. It pays no dividend and trades at a much higher P/E (price-to-earnings) multiple, reflecting land value and development optionality rather than current earnings power.
On recent momentum, MDU's relative performance has been muted but steady, while TRC has delivered a dramatic year-over-year swing from loss to profit off a small base. Growth drivers also differ: MDU leans on infrastructure build-out and electrification, whereas TRC leans on commercial real estate demand, water monetization, and governance-driven cost discipline. In short, MDU offers consistency and income; TRC offers higher-beta, catalyst-driven upside with less predictable cash flow.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and catalyst clarity, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward MDU in the current environment. The utility's earnings visibility, affirmed guidance, dividend support, and lower beta suggest a steadier, more reliable trend pattern than TRC's lumpy, land-sale-driven results. That said, TRC's improving EBITDA, cost discipline, and asset-backed optionality could attract algorithmic interest if its momentum stabilizes. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: MDU's consistent trend and clearer catalysts currently offer a more favorable risk-reward profile for systematic, trend-following strategies, while TRC remains a higher-volatility candidate better suited to catalyst-oriented approaches.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MDU is a StrongBuy and TRC is a StrongBuy.
Momentum Indicator for MDU turns positive, indicating new upward trend
MDU saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 96 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 66 of the 96 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MDU's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 14 of 21 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MDU just turned positive on September 28, 2026. Looking at past instances where MDU's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 23 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +1.16% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MDU advanced for three days, in 192 of 335 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MDU declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
MDU broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MDU entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 49, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MDU’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 61 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.374) is normal, around the industry mean (1.386). P/E Ratio (20.126) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.056). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.360) is also within normal values, averaging (1.861). Dividend Yield (0.030) settles around the average of (0.038) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.114) is also within normal values, averaging (2.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
TRC's Stochastic Oscillator is sitting in oversold zone for 1 day
Be on the lookout for a price bounce soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for TRC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +2.17% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TRC advanced for three days, in 152 of 275 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
TRC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 103 of 183 cases where TRC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 56%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 16, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TRC as a result. In 52 of 96 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TRC turned negative on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 25 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 49%.
TRC moved below its 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TRC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TRC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.908) is normal, around the industry mean (-0.832). P/E Ratio (72.909) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.940). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.060) is also within normal values, averaging (0.772). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (510.270) among similar stocks. TRC's P/S Ratio (7.610) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.059).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TRC’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
MDU | TRC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 86 | 70 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 61 Fair valued | 76 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 13 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 79 | 89 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 88 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MDU's Valuation (61) in the Gas Distributors industry is in the same range as TRC (76) in the Real Estate Development industry. This means that MDU’s stock grew similarly to TRC’s over the last 12 months.
MDU's Profit vs Risk Rating (13) in the Gas Distributors industry is significantly better than the same rating for TRC (100) in the Real Estate Development industry. This means that MDU’s stock grew significantly faster than TRC’s over the last 12 months.
MDU's SMR Rating (79) in the Gas Distributors industry is in the same range as TRC (89) in the Real Estate Development industry. This means that MDU’s stock grew similarly to TRC’s over the last 12 months.
MDU's Price Growth Rating (57) in the Gas Distributors industry is in the same range as TRC (59) in the Real Estate Development industry. This means that MDU’s stock grew similarly to TRC’s over the last 12 months.
MDU's P/E Growth Rating (52) in the Gas Distributors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TRC (88) in the Real Estate Development industry. This means that MDU’s stock grew somewhat faster than TRC’s over the last 12 months.
| MDU | TRC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 54% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 49% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 52% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | about 1 month ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 46% | 4 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 56% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MDU’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TRC’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- MDU’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TRC’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MDU’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TRC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MDU’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TRC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MDU (@Gas Distributors) experienced а +3.13% price change this week, while TRC (@Industrial Conglomerates) price change was -1.05% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Gas Distributors industry was +3.10%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.54%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.95%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Conglomerates industry was -4.84%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -10.63%, and the average quarterly price growth was -15.15%.
Reported Earning Dates
MDU is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
TRC is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Gas Distributors (+3.10% weekly)Gas distributors are involved in moving and selling gas – from wellheads or over-distribution systems operated by other firms – to residential and non-residential customers. These companies perform tasks such as the gathering and processing of gas, intrastate and interstate transport, and delivery to the customer. Some of the biggest gas distributing companies in the U.S. include Sempra Energy, Avangrid Inc and Atmos Energy Corporation.
@Industrial Conglomerates (-4.84% weekly)Industrial Conglomerates specialize in numerous types of products, most of which comprise industrial goods, while some also go towards meeting household needs. Honeywell (makes engineering services and aerospace systems), United Technologies Corporation(manufactures aircraft engines, aerospace systems, HVAC, elevators and escalators, fire and security, building systems, and industrial products, among others), 3M (over 60,000 products under several world-renowned brands, including adhesives, abrasives, laminates, passive fire protection, personal protective equipment, window films, paint protection films, dental and orthodontic products, electrical & electronic connecting and insulating materials, medical products, car-care products, electronic circuits, healthcare software and optical films).
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MDU and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MDU has been loosely correlated with BKH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 54% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MDU jumps, then BKH could also see price increases.
TRC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TRC has been loosely correlated with MDU. These tickers have moved in lockstep 42% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TRC jumps, then MDU could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TRC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRC | 100% | -0.68% | ||
| MDU - TRC | 42% Loosely correlated | +0.10% | ||
| IIIN - TRC | 41% Loosely correlated | +0.33% | ||
| MATW - TRC | 38% Loosely correlated | -1.44% | ||
| MLI - TRC | 35% Loosely correlated | +1.28% | ||
| NWPX - TRC | 35% Loosely correlated | +1.93% | ||
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