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HTLD vs KNX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Heartland Express (HTLD) vs. Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both HTLD and KNX have posted strong gains in recent market activity, with approximately 18% increases over the past month, reflecting improved sentiment in the trucking sector.
- KNX boasts a significantly larger market capitalization of about $10.65 billion compared to HTLD's $900 million, offering greater scale and diversification.
- HTLD reports negative earnings per share (EPS, a measure of profitability per share) of -$0.68 on trailing twelve months (TTM), with revenue declines, while KNX shows positive EPS of $0.41.
- Recent quarterly revenue for HTLD fell 26% year-over-year, contrasting with KNX's more stable slight decline of 0.4%.
- Both exhibit similar volatility with betas (a measure of market sensitivity) around 1.1, but KNX provides a dividend yield.
- Analyst consensus leans toward hold ratings for both, amid trucking industry challenges like freight demand and costs.
Introduction
Heartland Express (HTLD) and Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX) are prominent players in the U.S. trucking industry, specializing in truckload transportation amid fluctuating freight volumes and economic pressures. This comparison analyzes their recent performance, financial health, and market positioning, helping investors and traders evaluate opportunities in the transportation sector. With both stocks showing momentum in recent weeks, sector watchers can assess relative strengths in scale, profitability, and growth potential during a period of industry recovery.
HTLD Overview and Recent Performance
Heartland Express (HTLD) operates as a short-to-medium-haul truckload carrier, focusing on dry van services with an asset-heavy model emphasizing safety and efficiency. In recent market activity, the stock has rebounded sharply, gaining around 18% over the past month and 30% year-to-date, lifting it toward its 52-week high near $12. This uptrend follows a period of weakness tied to soft freight demand and high operating costs, with Q4 2025 results showing revenue of $179 million (down 26% year-over-year) and a net loss, though EPS beat estimates slightly. Sentiment has improved on signs of stabilizing volumes and a recent quarterly dividend declaration, but negative ROE (return on equity, a profitability gauge) of -6.65% underscores ongoing pressures from elevated operating ratios above 100%.
KNX Overview and Recent Performance
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX), the largest truckload carrier in the U.S., offers a diversified portfolio including truckload, less-than-truckload (LTL), and logistics services following its major merger. The stock has surged in recent weeks, up about 19% in the past month and 25% year-to-date, approaching its 52-week high of $66, with even stronger 68% gains over the past year. Performance reflects resilience amid sector headwinds, though Q1 2026 earnings guidance was revised downward ahead of the April report. TTM revenue stands at $7.47 billion with positive EPS of $0.41 and ROE of 0.92%, supported by steady cash flows, despite minor revenue dips and cost challenges like fuel. Investor sentiment benefits from its scale and a 1.22% dividend yield.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both companies operate in the competitive trucking sector but differ in scale and diversification: HTLD emphasizes regional truckload with a conservative fleet model, while KNX leverages its size for truckload, LTL, and intermodal exposure, providing broader growth drivers like logistics expansion. Recent momentum is comparable, but KNX's positive profitability contrasts HTLD's losses, highlighting trade-offs in risk—HTLD has lower debt/equity (21% vs. 38%) but higher revenue volatility. Sector risks like fuel costs and freight rates affect both equally (similar betas), yet KNX shows stronger market sentiment via analyst targets and cash generation.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models would currently favor KNX over HTLD, based on superior trend consistency, positive earnings stability, larger scale for economic resilience, and upcoming catalysts like Q1 results. While HTLD offers rebound potential, KNX's relative positioning suggests higher probability of sustained outperformance in the trucking recovery.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HTLD is a Hold and KNX is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HTLD’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileKNX’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- HTLD’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KNX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HTLD’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KNX’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HTLD’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- KNX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
HTLD (@Trucking) experienced а -3.62% price change this week, while KNX (@Trucking) price change was -4.31% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucking industry was -2.85%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.34%, and the average quarterly price growth was +39.90%.
Reported Earning Dates
HTLD is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
KNX is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucking (-2.85% weekly)The trucking industry provides road transportation delivery and logistical services, including moving large quantities of raw materials, works in process, and finished goods —often from manufacturing plants to retail distribution centers. Trucks are also used in the construction industry, as they transport large amounts of rocks, concrete, and other building materials used in construction. Trucks in the U.S. are responsible for the majority of freight movement over land, and therefore play an important role in the manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing industries. The business could be affected by economic cycles, since it is closely linked with manufacturing, retail and construction. Some of the major trucking companies in the U.S. are Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., and XPO Logistics, Inc.
| HTLD | KNX | HTLD / KNX | |
| Capitalization | 1.16B | 12.2B | 9% |
| EBITDA | 108M | 993M | 11% |
| Gain YTD | 65.563 | 43.932 | 149% |
| P/E Ratio | 52.32 | 359.05 | 15% |
| Revenue | 763M | 7.5B | 10% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 153M | 2.66B | 6% |
HTLD | KNX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 74 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 69 Overvalued | 91 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 38 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 94 | 91 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 2 | 2 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HTLD's Valuation (69) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as KNX (91). This means that HTLD’s stock grew similarly to KNX’s over the last 12 months.
KNX's Profit vs Risk Rating (38) in the Trucking industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HTLD (100). This means that KNX’s stock grew somewhat faster than HTLD’s over the last 12 months.
KNX's SMR Rating (91) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as HTLD (94). This means that KNX’s stock grew similarly to HTLD’s over the last 12 months.
HTLD's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as KNX (40). This means that HTLD’s stock grew similarly to KNX’s over the last 12 months.
HTLD's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as KNX (2). This means that HTLD’s stock grew similarly to KNX’s over the last 12 months.
| HTLD | KNX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 60% | 13 days ago 65% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 71% | 1 day ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 61% |
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HTLD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HTLD has been closely correlated with CVLG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HTLD jumps, then CVLG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HTLD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HTLD | 100% | N/A | ||
| CVLG - HTLD | 81% Closely correlated | -0.59% | ||
| MRTN - HTLD | 78% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| SNDR - HTLD | 74% Closely correlated | -0.22% | ||
| WERN - HTLD | 74% Closely correlated | +0.33% | ||
| ODFL - HTLD | 72% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
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KNX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KNX has been closely correlated with SNDR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KNX jumps, then SNDR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KNX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KNX | 100% | -2.02% | ||
| SNDR - KNX | 81% Closely correlated | -0.22% | ||
| CVLG - KNX | 74% Closely correlated | -0.59% | ||
| TFII - KNX | 72% Closely correlated | +1.24% | ||
| HTLD - KNX | 70% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| XPO - KNX | 66% Loosely correlated | +0.22% | ||
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