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HUM vs UNH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Humana (HUM) vs. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HUM has delivered sharply stronger recent momentum, rebounding from a multi-year decline on a Medicare Advantage Star Ratings recovery, while UNH has posted a steadier, margin-driven turnaround.
- UNH is the larger, more diversified operator (insurer UnitedHealthcare plus the Optum services businesses), whereas HUM is a more concentrated Medicare-focused play.
- Both companies are repairing medical-cost margins, but HUM carries a meaningfully richer valuation, while UNH trades at a more moderate forward earnings multiple.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: On balance, the AI framework currently favors HUM, reflecting stronger trend consistency and a concrete, high-impact catalyst in its Star Ratings recovery.
- For deeper context on each name, explore HUM Major News and HUM Today's Price Move, as well as UNH Major News and UNH Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are positioning across these and other tickers, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Humana Inc. (HUM) and UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) are two of the most closely watched names in U.S. managed care, and their stock comparison has become especially relevant as the sector works through a multi-year margin reset in Medicare Advantage and Medicaid. Investors weighing a concentrated, Medicare-centric turnaround against a diversified healthcare giant will find this head-to-head useful. Both stocks have re-rated sharply in recent market activity, yet their drivers differ: HUM is riding a ratings-led recovery, while UNH is rebuilding profitability through disciplined membership pruning. Understanding the contrasts in momentum, valuation, and risk helps clarify their relative market positioning.
HUM Overview and Recent Performance
HUM is a leading U.S. health insurer centered on Medicare Advantage plans for seniors, complemented by its CenterWell primary care, pharmacy, and home services businesses. The company has been the sector's most visible turnaround story. After a steep multi-year decline driven by weak Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and compressed margins, the stock has surged in recent months — up more than 60% year to date at recent levels — following the release of the 2027 Star Ratings. Humana reported that roughly 95% of its Medicare Advantage membership is now in plans rated four stars or higher, versus about 20% for 2026, restoring access to federal quality bonus payments and easing a key bear-case concern.
Recent earnings have also beaten expectations, with first- and second-quarter 2026 results exceeding consensus on revenue and adjusted earnings per share (EPS), supported by strong membership growth and a rebounding CenterWell segment. Management has affirmed full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of at least $9.00 and targeted a return to a sustainable Medicare Advantage margin of at least 3% by 2028. Activist investor involvement and analyst upgrades have further supported sentiment, though the stock's elevated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio reflects heightened expectations and leaves less room for execution missteps.
UNH Overview and Recent Performance
UNH is the largest U.S. health insurer by market capitalization, operating through two pillars: UnitedHealthcare (insurance) and Optum (pharmacy, care delivery, and health technology services). After a difficult 2025 that included elevated medical costs, regulatory scrutiny, and a decline of roughly a third, the stock has staged a steady recovery in 2026, advancing in the high teens year to date and outpacing the broader market. The turnaround has been margin-led rather than growth-led: UnitedHealth has deliberately shed less profitable membership, with total served lives falling year over year as it exited underperforming Medicare Advantage and other plans.
That discipline is showing up in results. In its most recent quarter, UNH reported adjusted EPS well above consensus, with its medical care ratio — the share of premiums spent on care — improving, and management raising full-year adjusted EPS guidance to at least $20.50. Optum's profitability has also improved, even as revenue declined, reflecting reduced exposure to lower-scale value-based care markets. Regulatory investigations and ongoing policy risk remain notable overhangs, but a more moderate forward earnings multiple and improving margin visibility have underpinned investor confidence in recent weeks.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page showcases a curated selection of automated trading strategies from a broader library of hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers. These bots vary widely in trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance, and the set of securities they monitor, so only the strategies best suited to current market conditions earn a place in the trending section. For traders and investors comparing names like HUM and UNH, the page offers a way to observe how systematic, data-driven approaches are interpreting real-time price action and trend signals across the market. Explore the Trending AI Robots to review the strategies currently positioned for prevailing conditions.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two stocks differ most clearly in scope and valuation. UNH is a diversified healthcare conglomerate whose insurance and services arms provide multiple earnings streams and some cushion against any single policy shift; its forward earnings multiple is comparatively moderate, and its dividend offers a steady income component. HUM, by contrast, is a more concentrated Medicare-focused business, giving it greater leverage to the Star Ratings recovery but also more exposure to Medicare reimbursement and coding risk, all of which is reflected in its richer valuation.
On growth drivers, HUM is expanding membership aggressively and monetizing a ratings-driven quality bonus, while UNH is optimizing margins by shrinking selectively — a trade-off between headline growth and profitability. Risk profiles also diverge: HUM faces execution risk in restoring margins and retaining members, whereas UNH faces regulatory and policy scrutiny alongside a still-unproven return to durable membership growth. Recent market sentiment has favored HUM's catalyst-driven momentum, while UNH has been rewarded for consistent earnings beats and guidance increases.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI framework currently leans toward HUM. The assessment reflects stronger relative momentum, a more consistent upward trend in recent months, and a concrete, high-impact catalyst — the Star Ratings recovery that restores billions in potential quality bonus payments — that has a clearer near-term earnings linkage than UNH's steadier, margin-driven improvement. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: HUM's elevated valuation and execution risk temper conviction, while UNH's diversification, improving margins, and moderate multiple make it a more stable alternative. Traders should weigh momentum and catalyst clarity against valuation and stability when considering relative positioning.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Humana Inc. (HUM) and UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) are large healthcare companies based in the US. Unitedhealth is the larger of the two by several orders of magnitude, with an enterprise value of $424B, while Humana has an EV of $57B at the time of this writing. Both companies operate as insurers for major medical policies, as well as supplemental policies such as Medicare Advantage and dental coverages. UNH operates in multiple segments under the Optum brand and the Unitedhealth brand, serving medical and pharmaceutical industry infrastructure with financial services and other logistics. Both companies derive significant income from government contracts for Medicaid, Medicare, and ACA-related health policies. Their margins are more modest than some industries, but they have reliable earnings. UNH has a slightly better ROE, currently at 22% at the time of this writing compared to HUM’s 17%, but their ROA is almost the same figure, at approximately 6.4%.
HUM in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026
The 10-day moving average for HUM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 16 of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 34 of 53 cases where HUM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on HUM as a result. In 54 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +3.44% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HUM advanced for three days, in 218 of 347 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for HUM moved out of overbought territory on October 13, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 21 of the 31 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for HUM turned negative on October 26, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HUM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
HUM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. HUM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.711) is normal, around the industry mean (3.520). P/E Ratio (40.612) is within average values for comparable stocks, (126.353). HUM's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.304) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.786). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.319) is also within normal values, averaging (0.569).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HUM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
Momentum Indicator for UNH turns negative, indicating new downward trend
UNH saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 83 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 58 of the 83 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for UNH moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 19 of the 35 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for UNH turned negative on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UNH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
UNH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
UNH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for UNH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Following a +2.23% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UNH advanced for three days, in 186 of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 108 of 245 cases where UNH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 44%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. UNH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 63 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.594) is normal, around the industry mean (3.520). P/E Ratio (25.266) is within average values for comparable stocks, (126.353). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.025) is also within normal values, averaging (0.786). UNH has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.024) as compared to the industry average of (0.009). P/S Ratio (0.757) is also within normal values, averaging (0.569).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UNH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock worse than average.
HUM | UNH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 79 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 82 Overvalued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 95 | 94 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 98 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 4 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 7 | 10 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UNH's Valuation (63) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as HUM (82). This means that UNH’s stock grew similarly to HUM’s over the last 12 months.
UNH's Profit vs Risk Rating (94) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as HUM (95). This means that UNH’s stock grew similarly to HUM’s over the last 12 months.
UNH's SMR Rating (58) in the Managed Health Care industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HUM (98). This means that UNH’s stock grew somewhat faster than HUM’s over the last 12 months.
HUM's Price Growth Rating (4) in the Managed Health Care industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UNH (45). This means that HUM’s stock grew somewhat faster than UNH’s over the last 12 months.
HUM's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as UNH (10). This means that HUM’s stock grew similarly to UNH’s over the last 12 months.
| HUM | UNH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 63% | 7 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 65% | 5 days ago 52% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 44% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HUM’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while UNH’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- HUM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- UNH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HUM’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UNH’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HUM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- UNH’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
HUM (@Managed Health Care) experienced а +3.12% price change this week, while UNH (@Managed Health Care) price change was -0.70% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Managed Health Care industry was +3.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.55%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.92%.
Reported Earning Dates
HUM is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
UNH is expected to report earnings on Jan 20, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Managed Health Care (+3.86% weekly)Managed healthcare industry focuses on providing health/medical and disability insurance plans, generally intended to reduce the cost of for-profit health care. The insurance products might be provided through employer-paid (fully or partly) insurance and benefit programs, or through Medicare/Medicaid. Some of the largest providers of managed health care include Aetna, Humana Inc., and Cigna, and UnitedHealthcare.
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HUM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HUM has been closely correlated with UNH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HUM jumps, then UNH could also see price increases.
UNH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UNH has been closely correlated with ELV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UNH jumps, then ELV could also see price increases.