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HUM vs UNH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Humana Inc. (HUM) vs. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HUM has re-rated sharply after a major Medicare Advantage (MA) Star Ratings recovery, with roughly 95% of members now in 4-star-or-higher plans.
- UNH is executing a margin-recovery strategy, improving its medical care ratio while deliberately accepting lower Medicare Advantage membership.
- Both stocks carry strong analyst support, but HUM trades at a materially richer forward earnings multiple than UNH.
- UNH offers greater diversification through its Optum platform, while HUM is more concentrated in government-funded senior coverage.
- Relative performance and market positioning diverge: HUM is riding a catalyst-driven rerating, while UNH reflects steadier, operationally driven improvement.
Introduction
Humana Inc. and UnitedHealth Group Incorporated are two of the most closely watched names in U.S. managed care, yet they occupy very different positions within the sector. This stock comparison is relevant to investors weighing a concentrated Medicare Advantage turnaround story against a diversified healthcare giant in the middle of its own margin-recovery cycle. Recent market activity has pushed both equities higher, but for different reasons: Humana has been lifted by a regulatory quality-ratings reset, while UnitedHealth has benefited from improving medical cost discipline and stronger earnings visibility. Understanding how these drivers translate into relative performance and market positioning can help traders and longer-term investors assess which profile better fits the current environment.
HUM Overview and Recent Performance
Humana Inc. (HUM) is a leading health insurer focused heavily on Medicare Advantage, the privately run alternative to traditional Medicare, supplemented by its CenterWell healthcare-services segment. In recent weeks, the stock has been one of the sector's standout performers after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) released 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings showing that roughly 95% of Humana's Medicare Advantage members are enrolled in plans rated 4 stars or higher, a sharp rebound from a much smaller share in the prior cycle. Higher star ratings unlock federal quality bonus payments, which for Humana land primarily in the 2028 bonus year; sell-side estimates have placed the value of the recovery in the billions of dollars.
The news triggered a significant single-session advance and drove the shares to a 52-week high, with several analysts raising price targets. Humana also reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted earnings outlook of at least $9 per share, while its valuation has climbed to a notably higher forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple than most peers. The company still faces an overhang from Medicare Advantage plan exits affecting hundreds of thousands of members and ongoing regulatory scrutiny, but the ratings recovery has meaningfully reduced the central downside scenario that had weighed on sentiment for much of the prior two years.
UNH Overview and Recent Performance
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) is the largest U.S. health insurer by revenue and operates a more diversified model than Humana, combining the UnitedHealthcare insurance business with Optum, which spans pharmacy services (Optum Rx), care delivery (Optum Health), and healthcare data and technology (Optum Insight). In recent market activity, UnitedHealth has shown improving operational momentum rather than a single catalyst-driven spike. Its second-quarter results featured an adjusted medical care ratio that improved to 86.7% from 89.4% a year earlier, reflecting stronger pricing, benefit-design changes, and better medical cost management. Management subsequently raised its full-year 2026 adjusted earnings outlook to a range of $19.50 to $20 per share.
Unlike Humana, UnitedHealth has been intentionally sacrificing Medicare Advantage membership to protect margins, a trade-off that has supported profitability but limited top-line growth. Its 2027 star ratings also moved in the opposite direction of Humana's, with a smaller share of members in 4-star-plus plans. The stock trades at a far lower forward P/E multiple than Humana, and it retains a Strong Buy consensus among analysts, though some recent price-target revisions have been trimmed ahead of earnings. Elevated medical costs in the commercial book and continued regulatory attention remain key watchpoints.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two is structural. HUM is a more concentrated wager on Medicare Advantage and senior-focused care, which makes its earnings power highly sensitive to star ratings, reimbursement rates, and regulatory rule changes. UNH spreads risk across commercial, government, and employer markets while leaning on Optum's recurring services revenue, giving it a steadier earnings base but also broader regulatory and competitive exposure.
On momentum, HUM currently carries the stronger near-term catalyst in the form of restored bonus eligibility, yet that benefit is largely a 2028 event, leaving a gap between the rerating and the actual cash flow. UNH is already converting its strategy into reported earnings growth, with a second consecutive guidance increase and a much lower valuation multiple. Risk profiles differ accordingly: Humana's tail risk has diminished but its valuation leaves less room for execution missteps, while UnitedHealth still must prove that commercial-margin recovery and Optum momentum can offset declining Medicare Advantage membership.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward UNH for its combination of trend consistency and valuation cushion, while recognizing that HUM currently exhibits stronger short-term momentum and a more potent catalyst. UnitedHealth's steadier earnings trajectory, diversified revenue base, and lower forward multiple suggest a more durable market positioning, whereas Humana's rally, though fundamentally supported, follows an abrupt rerating that may be more prone to consolidation. A momentum-oriented model could favor Humana in the near term, but a stability- and risk-weighted framework would more likely assign a higher probability to UnitedHealth over a longer horizon.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Humana Inc. (HUM) and UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) are large healthcare companies based in the US. Unitedhealth is the larger of the two by several orders of magnitude, with an enterprise value of $424B, while Humana has an EV of $57B at the time of this writing. Both companies operate as insurers for major medical policies, as well as supplemental policies such as Medicare Advantage and dental coverages. UNH operates in multiple segments under the Optum brand and the Unitedhealth brand, serving medical and pharmaceutical industry infrastructure with financial services and other logistics. Both companies derive significant income from government contracts for Medicaid, Medicare, and ACA-related health policies. Their margins are more modest than some industries, but they have reliable earnings. UNH has a slightly better ROE, currently at 22% at the time of this writing compared to HUM’s 17%, but their ROA is almost the same figure, at approximately 6.4%.
Aroon Indicator for HUM shows an upward move is likely
HUM's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on September 18, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 239 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 172 of the 239 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on HUM as a result. In 55 of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HUM just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where HUM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
HUM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for HUM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +2.81% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HUM advanced for three days, in 218 of 349 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for HUM moved out of overbought territory on October 13, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 21 of the 31 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 68%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 45 of 64 cases where HUM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HUM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
HUM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 3 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. HUM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.582) is normal, around the industry mean (3.448). P/E Ratio (38.685) is within average values for comparable stocks, (126.060). HUM's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.304) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.786). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.319) is also within normal values, averaging (0.569).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HUM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
UNH's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UNH turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where UNH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UNH as a result. In 43 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
UNH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +7.65% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UNH advanced for three days, in 183 of 332 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for UNH moved out of overbought territory on October 16, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 19 of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 53%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UNH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
UNH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for UNH entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 39 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. UNH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 63 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.660) is normal, around the industry mean (3.448). P/E Ratio (25.733) is within average values for comparable stocks, (126.060). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.025) is also within normal values, averaging (0.786). UNH has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.023) as compared to the industry average of (0.009). P/S Ratio (0.757) is also within normal values, averaging (0.569).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UNH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock worse than average.
HUM | UNH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 83 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 93 | 94 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 98 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 5 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 5 | 7 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 3 | 39 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UNH's Valuation (63) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as HUM (83). This means that UNH’s stock grew similarly to HUM’s over the last 12 months.
HUM's Profit vs Risk Rating (93) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as UNH (94). This means that HUM’s stock grew similarly to UNH’s over the last 12 months.
UNH's SMR Rating (58) in the Managed Health Care industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HUM (98). This means that UNH’s stock grew somewhat faster than HUM’s over the last 12 months.
HUM's Price Growth Rating (5) in the Managed Health Care industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UNH (42). This means that HUM’s stock grew somewhat faster than UNH’s over the last 12 months.
HUM's P/E Growth Rating (5) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as UNH (7). This means that HUM’s stock grew similarly to UNH’s over the last 12 months.
| HUM | UNH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 53% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 52% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 62% | 5 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 66% | 7 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 52% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 60% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HUM’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while UNH’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- HUM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- UNH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HUM’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UNH’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HUM’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- UNH’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
HUM (@Managed Health Care) experienced а -4.33% price change this week, while UNH (@Managed Health Care) price change was +5.83% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Managed Health Care industry was +2.33%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.18%, and the average quarterly price growth was +45.99%.
Reported Earning Dates
HUM is expected to report earnings on Nov 06, 2026.
UNH is expected to report earnings on Jan 20, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Managed Health Care (+2.33% weekly)Managed healthcare industry focuses on providing health/medical and disability insurance plans, generally intended to reduce the cost of for-profit health care. The insurance products might be provided through employer-paid (fully or partly) insurance and benefit programs, or through Medicare/Medicaid. Some of the largest providers of managed health care include Aetna, Humana Inc., and Cigna, and UnitedHealthcare.
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HUM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HUM has been closely correlated with UNH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HUM jumps, then UNH could also see price increases.
UNH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UNH has been closely correlated with ELV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UNH jumps, then ELV could also see price increases.