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HUM vs UNH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Humana (HUM) vs. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HUM has delivered a year-to-date return of approximately 57% as of mid-July 2026, significantly outpacing UNH's roughly 31% gain over the same period, reflecting divergent recovery trajectories in the managed-care sector.
- UnitedHealth Group remains the far larger enterprise, with annual revenues exceeding $447 billion compared to Humana's approximately $130 billion, offering greater diversification across insurance and healthcare services through its Optum platform.
- Both companies continue to navigate elevated medical cost trends, though Humana's medical loss ratio (MLR — the percentage of premium revenue spent on patient care) has shown signs of stabilization, while UnitedHealth faces ongoing margin compression in its Medicare Advantage book.
- Regulatory and legal risks weigh more heavily on UNH, which is contending with Department of Justice (DOJ) civil and criminal inquiries into its Medicare billing practices, while HUM's primary regulatory overhang centers on Star Ratings litigation.
- Humana's focused Medicare Advantage strategy has resonated with investors in recent months, whereas UnitedHealth's broader, more complex structure presents both resilience and a slower path to earnings recovery.
Introduction
Humana Inc. (HUM) and UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) represent two of the most closely watched names in the U.S. managed-care industry. Both are deeply exposed to Medicare Advantage (MA) — the federally funded private insurance program for seniors — as well as pharmacy benefit management and healthcare services. This comparison is relevant for investors seeking to understand how two companies with overlapping end markets can diverge in strategy, financial performance, and market sentiment. While UnitedHealth commands unparalleled scale and diversification, Humana has carved out a reputation as a pure-play MA specialist. Examining their relative performance, risk profiles, and recent catalysts offers a clearer picture of how these healthcare giants stack up in the current market environment.
HUM Overview and Recent Performance
Humana, headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, is one of the largest health insurers in the United States, with a dominant focus on Medicare Advantage plans. The company also operates CenterWell, a growing portfolio of pharmacy, primary care, and home health services aimed at creating an integrated care delivery ecosystem. In recent weeks, HUM has attracted considerable investor attention, with shares climbing sharply from their 2025 lows. The stock has posted a year-to-date gain of approximately 57% as of mid-July 2026, and a three-month surge close to 95%, reflecting a pronounced recovery from a period of deep undervaluation. Earlier in 2025, Humana faced headwinds including elevated medical costs, Medicare Advantage membership attrition, and uncertainty surrounding its Star Ratings — quality scores that directly affect federal bonus payments. However, the company raised its full-year 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance and narrowed its expected MA membership decline, signaling improved operational control. The CenterWell segment has been a bright spot, contributing stronger-than-expected pharmacy and primary care results. Sentiment has also been buoyed by Humana's commitment to streamlining prior authorization requirements and exiting unprofitable plans, moves seen as supportive of long-term margin recovery.
UNH Overview and Recent Performance
UnitedHealth Group, based in Eden Prairie, Minnesota, is the largest healthcare company in the world by revenue, operating through two primary divisions: UnitedHealthcare, which provides health insurance to more than 50 million people, and Optum, a diversified health services platform spanning pharmacy benefits (Optum Rx), data analytics (Optum Insight), and value-based care delivery (Optum Health). In recent market activity, UNH shares have delivered a year-to-date return of roughly 31% and a three-month gain of around 32% — a solid performance, though notably trailing Humana's recovery pace. The company has navigated a turbulent period marked by a sharp increase in medical utilization, particularly in its Medicare Advantage book, where the medical care ratio rose to 89.4% in the second quarter of 2025, well above the prior-year level. UnitedHealth suspended and later re-established its full-year 2025 earnings outlook at a reduced level, citing accelerating medical cost trends. Compounding these operational pressures, the company disclosed in 2025 that the DOJ is conducting civil and criminal investigations into aspects of its Medicare business. On the leadership front, Stephen Helmsley returned as CEO amid a broader restructuring. Despite these challenges, Optum's pharmacy and analytics divisions have continued to expand, and the company's scale provides a formidable competitive moat.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both companies operate at the intersection of health insurance and healthcare services, their structural differences create distinct risk-and-reward profiles. Scale and diversification heavily favor UnitedHealth. Its Optum segment alone generates more annual revenue than Humana's entire business, and the company's presence across employer-sponsored plans, Medicaid, and international markets provides multiple revenue streams that can partially offset weakness in any single area. Humana, by contrast, derives the overwhelming majority of its premiums from government-funded Medicare programs, making it more sensitive to changes in reimbursement rates, Star Ratings, and MA enrollment trends.
Recent momentum tilts toward Humana. The stock's sharper recovery from 2025 lows suggests that the market is pricing in a more rapid earnings normalization, supported by improving benefit ratios, disciplined cost management, and the expansion of CenterWell's integrated care model. UnitedHealth, while hardly stagnant, carries a heavier burden of unresolved regulatory risk — the DOJ investigation creates an overhang that Humana does not face to the same degree, even accounting for Humana's own Star Ratings lawsuit.
Risk factors differ in nature. Humana's concentrated MA exposure means a single adverse regulatory ruling on Star Ratings could have a material financial impact, potentially affecting billions in bonus payments. UnitedHealth's risks are more dispersed but cumulatively meaningful: elevated medical cost trends, integration of the Amedisys acquisition, higher financial leverage, and potential reputational fallout from ongoing federal probes. On valuation, Humana trades at a modestly lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple in certain metrics, reflecting its smaller scale and narrower business mix, while UnitedHealth commands a premium consistent with its industry-leading diversification.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, relative price momentum, and the resolution trajectory of company-specific headwinds, Tickeron's AI-driven analysis would likely tilt in favor of HUM in the current environment. The stock's stronger recent momentum, improving benefit ratio trajectory, and clearer path toward margin recovery present a more constructive technical and fundamental picture. UnitedHealth's challenges — compressed margins, DOJ scrutiny, and a slower earnings rebound — introduce greater uncertainty that can weigh on algorithmic confidence scores. That said, UnitedHealth's scale and diversification make it a structurally more resilient holding, and if medical cost trends ease or regulatory clarity improves, the AI verdict could shift. As always, probabilistic models reflect the weight of current data, not certain outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Humana Inc. (HUM) and UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) are large healthcare companies based in the US. Unitedhealth is the larger of the two by several orders of magnitude, with an enterprise value of $424B, while Humana has an EV of $57B at the time of this writing. Both companies operate as insurers for major medical policies, as well as supplemental policies such as Medicare Advantage and dental coverages. UNH operates in multiple segments under the Optum brand and the Unitedhealth brand, serving medical and pharmaceutical industry infrastructure with financial services and other logistics. Both companies derive significant income from government contracts for Medicaid, Medicare, and ACA-related health policies. Their margins are more modest than some industries, but they have reliable earnings. UNH has a slightly better ROE, currently at 22% at the time of this writing compared to HUM’s 17%, but their ROA is almost the same figure, at approximately 6.4%.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HUM’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileUNH’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- HUM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- UNH’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HUM’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UNH’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HUM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UNH’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
HUM (@Managed Health Care) experienced а -2.67% price change this week, while UNH (@Managed Health Care) price change was -1.26% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Managed Health Care industry was -3.04%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.36%, and the average quarterly price growth was +26.69%.
Reported Earning Dates
HUM is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
UNH is expected to report earnings on Oct 09, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Managed Health Care (-3.04% weekly)Managed healthcare industry focuses on providing health/medical and disability insurance plans, generally intended to reduce the cost of for-profit health care. The insurance products might be provided through employer-paid (fully or partly) insurance and benefit programs, or through Medicare/Medicaid. Some of the largest providers of managed health care include Aetna, Humana Inc., and Cigna, and UnitedHealthcare.
| HUM | UNH | HUM / UNH | |
| Capitalization | 46.7B | 382B | 12% |
| EBITDA | N/A | 22.8B | - |
| Gain YTD | 53.133 | 29.179 | 182% |
| P/E Ratio | 41.55 | 31.68 | 131% |
| Revenue | 137B | 450B | 30% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 14B | 77.9B | 18% |
HUM | UNH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 80 | 77 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 11 Undervalued | 6 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 90 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 95 | 64 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 2 | 12 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 8 | 7 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UNH's Valuation (6) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as HUM (11). This means that UNH’s stock grew similarly to HUM’s over the last 12 months.
UNH's Profit vs Risk Rating (90) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as HUM (100). This means that UNH’s stock grew similarly to HUM’s over the last 12 months.
UNH's SMR Rating (64) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as HUM (95). This means that UNH’s stock grew similarly to HUM’s over the last 12 months.
HUM's Price Growth Rating (2) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as UNH (12). This means that HUM’s stock grew similarly to UNH’s over the last 12 months.
UNH's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as HUM (8). This means that UNH’s stock grew similarly to HUM’s over the last 12 months.
| HUM | UNH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 49% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 61% | 9 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 45% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 47% |
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Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UNH has been loosely correlated with ELV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if UNH jumps, then ELV could also see price increases.