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IEX vs ITW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? IDEX Corporation (IEX) vs. Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- IDEX Corporation (IEX) delivered record sales of $3.5 billion in fiscal 2025, fueled by surging demand in its Health & Science Technologies (HST) segment tied to AI-related projects and data center infrastructure.
- Illinois Tool Works (ITW) generated $16 billion in revenue with a record operating margin of 26.3%, showcasing the resilience and efficiency of its diversified seven-segment industrial model.
- Both companies are multi-industrial manufacturers with strong free cash flow generation and shareholder-friendly capital return policies, yet they differ significantly in scale, growth catalysts, and margin profiles.
- IEX trades at a higher earnings multiple (P/E ratio above 33) reflecting growth expectations from AI-linked end markets, while ITW offers a comparatively lower valuation with best-in-class operating margins above 26%.
- Recent momentum favors IEX, whose order book surged 16% organically in the final quarter of 2025, while ITW delivered steady but more modest organic growth of 1.3% in the same period.
- Analyst consensus rates IEX as a "Buy" with a price target implying further upside, while ITW holds a more mixed set of ratings reflecting its mature, steady-growth profile.
Introduction
Investors scouting the multi-industrial manufacturing space often encounter two well-regarded names: IDEX Corporation and Illinois Tool Works. Though both operate across diversified industrial end markets, they represent distinctly different investment propositions. IDEX, with a market capitalization near $16.7 billion, is a mid-cap player leaning into high-growth niches such as semiconductor fabrication, life sciences, and data center cooling. Illinois Tool Works, a Fortune 300 giant with roughly $16 billion in annual revenue, is a large-cap stalwart celebrated for its operational discipline and extraordinary margin consistency. This stock comparison examines how these two companies stack up in the current market environment, helping traders and investors weigh growth potential against defensive reliability.
IEX Overview and Recent Performance
IDEX Corporation (IEX), headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, operates through three segments: Health & Science Technologies (HST), Fluid & Metering Technologies (FMT), and Fire & Safety/Diversified Products (FSDP). The company designs and manufactures precision fluidics systems, pumps, valves, flow meters, sealing solutions, and firefighting equipment for customers across industrial, life science, water, and energy markets.
In recent market activity, IEX has delivered compelling financial results. For full-year 2025, the company reported record sales of $3.5 billion, representing 6% reported growth and 1% organic growth. The standout performer has been the HST segment, which recorded a remarkable 34% organic orders surge in the fourth quarter, driven by accelerating demand for AI-related projects including data center power solutions and semiconductor applications. Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) — a measure that strips out one-time items to show underlying profitability — reached $7.95, up 1% year over year. Free cash flow conversion remained robust at 103% of adjusted net income, and the company returned $248 million to shareholders through share repurchases during the year. Looking ahead, management guided for 2026 organic sales growth of 1% to 2% and adjusted EPS of $8.15 to $8.35.
The stock has reflected this positive sentiment, rising roughly 28% year-to-date through mid-July 2026 and trading near its 52-week high. However, headwinds persist in the FSDP segment, where softening demand for dispensing equipment and fire and rescue tools has weighed on overall performance, while FMT continues to navigate a challenging environment in chemical, energy, and agriculture markets.
ITW Overview and Recent Performance
Illinois Tool Works (ITW), based in Glenview, Illinois, is a Fortune 300 global multi-industrial manufacturing leader with approximately 43,000 employees worldwide. The company operates across seven diverse segments — including Automotive OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer), Food Equipment, Test & Measurement and Electronics, Welding, Polymers & Fluids, Construction Products, and Specialty Products — leveraging its proprietary ITW Business Model to drive operational excellence.
In recent quarters, ITW has demonstrated the dependable consistency that long-term shareholders have come to expect. Full-year 2025 revenue reached $16 billion, up 0.9% year over year, with organic growth essentially flat as currency translation provided a modest tailwind. More impressively, operating margin expanded to a record 26.3%, with enterprise initiatives contributing 130 basis points (a basis point equals one-hundredth of a percentage point). GAAP EPS — earnings per share calculated under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles — reached $10.49, exceeding the midpoint of management's prior guidance. Six of seven segments expanded margins, and three segments posted operating margins above 30%.
The company's Customer-Back Innovation strategy contributed 2.4% to revenue growth in 2025, underscoring its ability to generate organic demand even in a flat macro environment. ITW also returned $3.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, raised its dividend for the 62nd consecutive year (with the annualized payout now at $6.44 per share), and plans to repurchase approximately $1.5 billion in shares during 2026. Management initiated 2026 EPS guidance of $11.00 to $11.40, representing 7% growth at the midpoint.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Comparing IEX and ITW reveals meaningful contrasts across several dimensions. Starting with scale, ITW is approximately four to five times larger by revenue, generating $16 billion in 2025 versus IEX's $3.5 billion. This scale advantage gives ITW greater diversification across end markets and geographies, reducing vulnerability to any single sector downturn.
In terms of profitability, ITW holds a clear edge. Its 26.3% operating margin — with three segments exceeding 30% — reflects decades of margin discipline through the proprietary ITW Business Model. IEX, while profitable and improving, operates at lower margins: its adjusted EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) margin stood at 26.8% in 2025, but its net income margin is around 14%, reflecting a different cost structure and heavier reinvestment.
On growth catalysts, the contrast sharpens. IEX has emerged as a direct beneficiary of AI infrastructure buildout through its HST segment's exposure to data center power solutions and semiconductor consumables. Organic order growth of 16% in Q4 2025 materially outpaced ITW's 1.3% organic growth in the same period. However, this growth concentration also introduces risk: if AI-related capital spending moderates, IEX faces greater cyclical exposure. ITW's growth, while slower, is broadly distributed and less dependent on any single thematic tailwind.
Valuation is another differentiator. IEX trades at a forward P/E (Price-to-Earnings) ratio of approximately 26, reflecting market enthusiasm for its AI-linked growth narrative. ITW trades at a lower multiple, consistent with its mature, steady-growth profile. For income investors, ITW stands out with its 62-year track record of consecutive dividend increases and a higher absolute dividend payout, while IEX offers a more modest but growing dividend yield.
Finally, market sentiment appears more bullish toward IEX, with analysts maintaining a consensus "Buy" rating and a price target above $238. ITW has received more mixed analyst coverage — including an upgrade from BofA Securities to Neutral and a maintained Underweight rating from Wells Fargo — reflecting a view that its premium operational quality may already be priced in.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable market data and trend patterns, Tickeron's AI-driven analysis would likely express a nuanced preference between these two industrial stocks depending on the strategy employed. For momentum-oriented and growth-focused strategies, the AI would probably lean toward IEX, given its powerful order momentum in AI-adjacent end markets, upward earnings revisions, and relative price strength near 52-week highs. The 16% organic order surge and tangible exposure to secular growth themes in semiconductors and data centers provide a catalyst-rich environment that trend-following algorithms tend to favor. For stability-oriented and mean-reversion strategies, ITW would likely present a more attractive profile: its consistent margin expansion, extraordinary dividend growth history, diversified revenue base, and proven ability to perform across economic cycles align with strategies that prioritize lower volatility and capital preservation. The AI's relative preference would ultimately depend on whether the prevailing market regime rewards growth acceleration or defensive quality — and at present, both stocks offer valid but distinctly different investment narratives.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is IEX is a Hold and ITW is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
IEX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileITW’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- IEX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ITW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
IEX’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ITW’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- IEX’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ITW’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
IEX (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а -0.74% price change this week, while ITW (@Industrial Machinery) price change was +2.52% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was -1.66%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -10.08%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.38%.
Reported Earning Dates
IEX is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
ITW is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (-1.66% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
| IEX | ITW | IEX / ITW | |
| Capitalization | 16.5B | 81.4B | 20% |
| EBITDA | 940M | 4.74B | 20% |
| Gain YTD | 26.795 | 16.336 | 164% |
| P/E Ratio | 33.03 | 26.28 | 126% |
| Revenue | 3.53B | 16.2B | 22% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 1.9B | 9.15B | 21% |
IEX | ITW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 70 | 32 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 25 Undervalued | 21 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 85 | 37 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 63 | 12 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 30 | 35 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 35 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ITW's Valuation (21) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as IEX (25). This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to IEX’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's Profit vs Risk Rating (37) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for IEX (85). This means that ITW’s stock grew somewhat faster than IEX’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's SMR Rating (12) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for IEX (63). This means that ITW’s stock grew somewhat faster than IEX’s over the last 12 months.
IEX's Price Growth Rating (30) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as ITW (35). This means that IEX’s stock grew similarly to ITW’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's P/E Growth Rating (35) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as IEX (36). This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to IEX’s over the last 12 months.
| IEX | ITW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 32% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 46% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 59% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 52% | 6 days ago 40% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 48% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 39% |
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IEX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, IEX has been closely correlated with ROP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if IEX jumps, then ROP could also see price increases.