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JBHT vs UPS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) vs. United Parcel Service (UPS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- JBHT delivered roughly 20% year-over-year revenue growth in its latest quarter, but a softer earnings-per-share (EPS) result and cost pressures weighed on sentiment.
- UPS has shifted its strategy toward higher-margin volume, completing a planned reduction in lower-margin Amazon shipments while cutting costs.
- JBHT is a North American surface transportation and logistics operator; UPS is a global integrated package-delivery and supply-chain company with far larger revenue and market capitalization.
- Valuation differs sharply: JBHT trades at a premium price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple relative to its history, while UPS carries a lower multiple and an elevated dividend yield.
- Both names face rising fuel costs and labor-related expenses, but their relative momentum and catalysts are diverging in the current cycle.
Introduction
Investors tracking the freight and logistics sector often compare JBHT and UPS because the two companies occupy related but distinct corners of the same industry. JBHT is primarily an asset-light North American trucking, intermodal, and brokerage business, while UPS is a global integrated delivery and supply-chain giant. This stock comparison is relevant to traders and investors weighing a cyclical transportation play against a large-cap turnaround story. Recent market activity has highlighted meaningful differences in their growth profiles, cost structures, and market positioning, making a side-by-side review of their relative performance useful for portfolio decisions.
JBHT Overview and Recent Performance
J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) operates across intermodal rail, Dedicated Contract Services (DCS), Integrated Capacity Solutions (ICS) brokerage, Final Mile, and Truckload segments, serving retailers, manufacturers, and consumer-goods companies throughout North America. Its market capitalization sits near $22 billion.
In its most recent quarterly report, JBHT grew total revenue roughly 20% year over year, supported by an approximate 8% rise in volume and improving gross margins. However, earnings per share (EPS) came in below consensus expectations, and the shares pulled back after the report. Management pointed to several profitability headwinds: higher driver recruitment and retention costs, fuel-price volatility, and rising insurance and medical claims. Even so, the company has emphasized a shift toward "repricing contractual capacity," signaling confidence in recovering higher costs through customer pricing. Analysts broadly retain a Buy consensus, though the stock's trailing P/E multiple remains elevated relative to its longer-term average.
UPS Overview and Recent Performance
United Parcel Service (UPS) is a global package-delivery and supply-chain company operating across U.S. Domestic Package, International Package, and Supply Chain Solutions segments, with roughly $78 billion in market capitalization. Its most recent reported quarter showed revenue growth of about 7.6% and an adjusted-EPS beat, prompting the company to raise its full-year revenue and profit outlook.
UPS has been executing a deliberate strategic transition: it completed a planned "glide down" of lower-margin Amazon volume, which reduced Amazon's share of the business from more than 13% to below 9%, and it has been closing facilities and pursuing roughly $3 billion in annual savings. The company also launched a Driver Choice Program with early-retirement buyouts, which created a large near-term severance charge. UPS is pivoting toward higher-yield segments such as healthcare logistics and small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), while investing in RFID (radio-frequency identification) tracking and AI-driven network automation. The shares have lagged the broader market over the past year even as management's cost and yield initiatives progress.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most clearly in scale and business model. UPS generates annual revenue near $91 billion and operates a global, asset-heavy integrated network, while JBHT is a smaller, largely asset-light freight operator with annual revenue under $15 billion. This distinction shapes their growth drivers: JBHT's momentum is tied to trucking and intermodal demand and its ability to reprice contracts, whereas UPS's story hinges on cost takeout, yield improvement, and replacing lower-margin Amazon volume with premium business.
Risk profiles also diverge. JBHT is more exposed to freight-cycle swings and rising driver and insurance costs, while UPS faces labor-union dynamics, fuel surcharges, and competitive pressure from Amazon's own logistics expansion. On valuation, JBHT trades at a notable premium to its historical multiple, reflecting growth expectations, while UPS trades at a lower multiple with an elevated dividend yield that appeals to income-oriented investors. Recent momentum has favored JBHT over the trailing year, though its latest post-earnings reaction reflects near-term profitability concerns.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward JBHT for trend consistency and revenue momentum, given its stronger top-line growth and constructive contract-repricing cycle. However, UPS may present a more compelling risk-adjusted setup from a stability and valuation standpoint, supported by completed cost restructuring, margin expansion, and an income component. The AI's preference would depend on the timeframe and strategy applied: a momentum-oriented model may favor JBHT's cyclical recovery, while a value or stability-oriented model may favor UPS's defensive yield and improving margins. Both companies remain subject to fuel costs and macroeconomic freight demand.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is JBHT is a StrongBuy and UPS is a Hold.
JBHT's RSI Indicator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for JBHT moved out of oversold territory on October 01, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 22 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 17 of the 22 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 36 of 54 cases where JBHT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on JBHT as a result. In 56 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for JBHT just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where JBHT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Following a +1.85% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where JBHT advanced for three days, in 189 of 292 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for JBHT moved below the 200-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where JBHT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
The Aroon Indicator for JBHT entered a downward trend on October 27, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. JBHT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 79 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.956) is normal, around the industry mean (2.645). JBHT has a moderately high P/E Ratio (32.761) as compared to the industry average of (7.719). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.628) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.020) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.781) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
Momentum Indicator for UPS turns positive, indicating new upward trend
UPS saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 101 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 67 of the 101 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UPS just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where UPS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
UPS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for UPS crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Following a +3.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UPS advanced for three days, in 192 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for UPS moved below the 200-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UPS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
UPS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for UPS entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. UPS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 63 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.991) is normal, around the industry mean (2.645). P/E Ratio (19.719) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.719). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.340) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). UPS has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.062) as compared to the industry average of (0.020). P/S Ratio (0.935) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UPS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
JBHT | UPS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 34 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 79 Overvalued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 49 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 26 | 12 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UPS's Valuation (63) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as JBHT (79) in the Trucking industry. This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to JBHT’s over the last 12 months.
JBHT's Profit vs Risk Rating (55) in the Trucking industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UPS (100) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry. This means that JBHT’s stock grew somewhat faster than UPS’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's SMR Rating (34) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as JBHT (49) in the Trucking industry. This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to JBHT’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as JBHT (56) in the Trucking industry. This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to JBHT’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as JBHT (26) in the Trucking industry. This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to JBHT’s over the last 12 months.
| JBHT | UPS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 65% | 6 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 70% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 63% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
JBHT’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while UPS’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- JBHT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- UPS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
JBHT’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UPS’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- JBHT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- UPS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
JBHT (@Other Transportation) experienced а +2.45% price change this week, while UPS (@Other Transportation) price change was +7.68% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was -4.49%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.37%, and the average quarterly price growth was -32.97%.
Reported Earning Dates
JBHT is expected to report earnings on Jan 21, 2027.
UPS is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (-4.49% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
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JBHT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, JBHT has been closely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 68% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if JBHT jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To JBHT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JBHT | 100% | +3.33% | ||
| XPO - JBHT | 68% Closely correlated | +3.07% | ||
| LSTR - JBHT | 62% Loosely correlated | +2.19% | ||
| HUBG - JBHT | 46% Loosely correlated | +5.33% | ||
| UPS - JBHT | 45% Loosely correlated | +5.75% | ||
| RLGT - JBHT | 44% Loosely correlated | +2.16% | ||
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UPS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UPS has been loosely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if UPS jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UPS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | 100% | +5.75% | ||
| XPO - UPS | 64% Loosely correlated | +3.07% | ||
| GXO - UPS | 57% Loosely correlated | +1.48% | ||
| FDX - UPS | 50% Loosely correlated | +2.17% | ||
| RLGT - UPS | 36% Loosely correlated | +2.16% | ||
| CHRW - UPS | 31% Poorly correlated | +2.45% | ||
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