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MHO vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? M/I Homes (MHO) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- M/I Homes (MHO) is an entry-level and move-up single-family builder, while Toll Brothers (TOL) is a luxury homebuilder — two very different segments of the same housing cycle.
- Recent quarters show diverging momentum: TOL grew net signed contracts roughly 7% year over year, while MHO saw lower revenue, compressed margins, and a 12% cancellation rate.
- Both maintain strong balance sheets, but TOL's more affluent buyer base has proven less sensitive to elevated mortgage rates and affordability pressure.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: The AI would favor TOL in the current environment, based on more consistent order growth, margin stability, and relative trend strength.
- For deeper context, explore MHO Major News and MHO Today's Price Move, as well as TOL Major News and TOL Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are navigating these names, browse the curated Trending AI Robots section.
Introduction
M/I Homes and Toll Brothers both operate at the center of the U.S. housing market, yet they serve different buyers and face different pressures. This stock comparison is useful for investors and traders evaluating how homebuilders are positioned amid elevated mortgage rates, softer demand, and lingering economic uncertainty. While MHO focuses on entry-level and move-up single-family homes across 17 markets, TOL concentrates on the luxury segment, where buyers are often less rate-sensitive. Comparing their relative performance, balance-sheet strength, and recent momentum helps clarify which company offers more consistent market positioning in the current cycle.
MHO Overview and Recent Performance
MHO, or M/I Homes, Inc., is a Columbus, Ohio-based builder of single-family homes serving first-time, move-up, and empty-nester buyers across the Midwest, Florida, Texas, the Carolinas, and Tennessee. In recent market activity, the company has faced margin pressure tied to mortgage rate buydowns, which management uses to sustain sales volume. These financing incentives helped support orders but reduced gross margin to roughly 21% in recent quarters. Management has described conditions as "increasingly difficult," citing higher mortgage rates and weaker demand, and its cancellation rate has held near 12%. The company retains a strong financial position, with record shareholders' equity around $3.3 billion, low debt, and active share repurchases, but recent earnings revisions have turned negative and the stock has pulled back toward its 52-week low.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
TOL, or Toll Brothers, Inc., is the nation's leading luxury homebuilder, serving affluent move-up, first-time, and move-down buyers with average home prices exceeding $1 million. In recent quarters, TOL grew net signed contracts about 7% year over year and raised its full-year guidance across key homebuilding metrics, supported by expanding community count and a resilient, higher-income customer base. Its adjusted gross margin has remained in the mid-20s, and the company has maintained pricing discipline while growing communities at an 8% to 10% pace. TOL also returned capital through share repurchases and a dividend increase, backed by an investment-grade credit rating and ample liquidity. While demand remains subdued overall, TOL's affluent buyers have proven less sensitive to affordability and mortgage-rate pressures.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron operates hundreds of AI trading bots that actively trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance record, and set of target securities. Because not every bot suits every market condition, Tickeron curates a dedicated Trending AI Robots page that highlights only the strategies best aligned with current market dynamics. These bots span varied approaches — from short-term momentum to longer-horizon trend following — allowing traders to review statistics and historical performance before choosing an approach. For those comparing names like MHO and TOL, the section offers a practical way to observe how automated, rules-based systems are positioning across the homebuilding sector. Explore the Trending AI Robots page to review the strategies currently standing out.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks is their exposure to the affordability cycle. MHO's entry-level and move-up buyers are more sensitive to mortgage rates, which has forced heavier use of rate buydowns and compressed margins. TOL's luxury buyers, by comparison, benefit from years of income growth and home-equity appreciation, insulating demand. Growth drivers also differ: TOL is expanding its community count and entering new markets such as Northwest Arkansas, while MHO's near-term story centers on defending margins and preserving its balance sheet. On risk, both face softer demand and elevated cancellations, but TOL's lower rate sensitivity and order growth give it more stable relative positioning. Market sentiment reflects this gap, with MHO seeing negative earnings revisions and TOL receiving relatively steadier support.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor TOL over MHO in the current environment. TOL demonstrates more consistent order growth, stronger margin stability, and a more resilient customer base, while also expanding its community count and maintaining disciplined capital returns. MHO retains a robust balance sheet and a low valuation, but its margin compression, elevated cancellation rate, and negative revisions suggest less favorable trend consistency in the near term. As with any probabilistic model, the outcome depends on evolving housing conditions, mortgage-rate trends, and each company's execution, but TOL's current relative positioning appears stronger.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MHO is a Hold and TOL is a Buy.
MHO's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for MHO moved out of oversold territory on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 17 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 15 of the 17 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MHO as a result. In 58 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MHO just turned positive on October 26, 2026. Looking at past instances where MHO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Following a +1.77% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MHO advanced for three days, in 234 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 41 of 59 cases where MHO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
MHO moved below its 50-day moving average on November 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for MHO moved below the 200-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MHO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
MHO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MHO entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 42 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.031) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (10.813) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.050) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.001) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MHO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
TOL in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
The 10-day moving average for TOL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TOL as a result. In 59 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
TOL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 217 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TOL moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 55%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 39 of 66 cases where TOL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.648) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (12.205) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
MHO | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 42 Fair valued | 70 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 43 | 35 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 70 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MHO's Valuation (42) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (70). This means that MHO’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (35) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MHO (43). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to MHO’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (58) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MHO (70). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to MHO’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MHO (51). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to MHO’s over the last 12 months.
MHO's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (19). This means that MHO’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| MHO | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 74% | 10 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 65% | 6 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | N/A |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MHO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MHO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MHO’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MHO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MHO (@Homebuilding) experienced а +1.07% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +1.98% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -6.47%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.55%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.32%.
Reported Earning Dates
MHO is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-6.47% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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MHO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MHO has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MHO jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.