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MHO vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO) vs. Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MHO and TOL are prominent homebuilders, but MHO focuses on mid‑range single‑family homes while TOL targets luxury segments.
- MHO’s recent price decline has been deeper than TOL’s, driven by slower regional demand and higher inventory levels.
- TOL enjoys stronger balance‑sheet metrics (lower debt‑to‑equity, higher cash conversion) and a modest dividend yield, giving it a defensive edge.
- Analyst sentiment favors TOL’s earnings momentum, whereas MHO faces cautious outlooks due to muted growth in its northern markets.
- AI trading bots on Tickeron tend to prioritize TOL for trend consistency, while MHO appears in risk‑adjusted swing‑trade strategies.
Introduction
Homebuilding stocks often react sharply to housing‑market dynamics, mortgage rates, and regional supply constraints. This comparison pits M/I Homes, Inc. MHO against Toll Brothers, Inc. TOL, two publicly traded builders with different market positions. The analysis is relevant for value‑oriented investors, growth‑seeking traders, and anyone using algorithmic tools that monitor sector rotation in the residential real‑estate space.
MHO Overview and Recent Performance
M/I Homes, Inc. MHO builds and sells single‑family homes across the Midwest, South and select West Coast markets. In recent weeks the stock has slipped roughly 10%‑12% from its 52‑week high, reflecting a combination of higher inventory in the northern markets, modest land‑cost inflation, and a slight dip in builder confidence reported by the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Index.
Key developments include the company’s expanded mortgage‑service platform, which now accounts for about 12% of total revenue, and a $100 million increase to its share‑repurchase authorization announced earlier in the quarter. Earnings for the most recent reporting period showed revenue of $1.15 billion (down ~4% YoY) and a net margin of 5.8%, modestly above the prior quarter. The firm’s beta (a measure of volatility relative to the market) stands at 0.45, indicating lower price swings than the broader market.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers, Inc. TOL specializes in luxury home construction and operates in more than 60 U.S. markets, covering the North, Mid‑Atlantic, South, Mountain and Pacific regions. Over the same period, TOL’s share price has fallen about 4%‑5% from its peak, outperforming MHO’s decline. The broader luxury‑home demand rebound, driven by higher‑income buyer confidence, has cushioned the stock.
Recent highlights: a 15% YoY revenue rise to $2.15 billion, a net margin of 9.1%, and an EPS (earnings per share) of $14.00. The company’s balance sheet shows a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 32.4% (well below many peers) and a cash‑to‑debt ratio that supports continued dividend payments of $0.26 per share (yield ≈0.74%). TOL’s beta of 1.39 suggests a higher sensitivity to market moves, yet its stable cash flow and modest dividend add a defensive layer for investors.
Trending AI Robots
The Trending AI Robots page on Tickeron curates a selection of the platform’s most performant algorithmic bots from a library of hundreds that trade thousands of tickers. These bots span a range of strategies—momentum, mean‑reversion, AI‑driven sentiment, and multi‑timeframe approaches—with back‑tested win rates often between 55% and 70% and Sharpe ratios (risk‑adjusted return metric) above 1.2. Only the bots that demonstrate consistent edge under current market conditions earn a spot in the Trending AI Robots section, offering traders a quick entry point to capitalize on sector‑specific opportunities.
Head-to-Head Comparison
- Business Model: MHO focuses on volume‑driven, mid‑price homes; TOL emphasizes luxury, high‑margin projects and ancillary services (mortgage, title, smart‑home tech).
- Growth Drivers: MHO’s growth hinges on expanding land inventories in the South and boosting its financial‑services segment; TOL benefits from premium pricing power and recent acquisitions in high‑growth markets.
- Recent Momentum: TOL shows steadier price performance and stronger earnings beat expectations; MHO’s momentum is more volatile due to regional demand fluctuations.
- Risk Factors: MHO faces exposure to slower housing starts in the Midwest and higher sensitivity to interest‑rate hikes; TOL’s risks include luxury‑segment softness and higher construction‑cost inflation.
- Financial Health: TOL’s lower debt‑to‑equity and dividend payout provide a buffer in a tightening credit environment, whereas MHO’s stronger cash flow conversion supports its share‑buyback program.
- Market Sentiment: Analyst coverage tilts slightly bullish for TOL (average rating “Buy”), while MHO holds a “Neutral” consensus, reflecting caution over its regional exposure.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trends—stable earnings, stronger balance‑sheet ratios, and a modest dividend—Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a marginally higher probability of outperformance to TOL. The algorithm favors stocks with consistent momentum and defensive financial metrics, both of which align with TOL’s recent profile. MHO remains attractive for traders seeking higher volatility and potential upside from a regional recovery, but the AI’s probability weighting leans toward TOL for the near term.
Disclaimer
“The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.”
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MHO is a StrongBuy and TOL is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MHO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MHO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MHO’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MHO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MHO (@Homebuilding) experienced а +2.91% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +6.66% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +2.75%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +13.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.08%.
Reported Earning Dates
MHO is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Aug 25, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+2.75% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| MHO | TOL | MHO / TOL | |
| Capitalization | 3.62B | 13.7B | 26% |
| EBITDA | 516M | 1.7B | 30% |
| Gain YTD | 10.457 | 9.189 | 114% |
| P/E Ratio | 10.62 | 11.18 | 95% |
| Revenue | 4.36B | 11B | 40% |
| Total Cash | 767M | 1.11B | 69% |
| Total Debt | 1.01B | 2.92B | 35% |
MHO | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 79 | 66 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 42 Fair valued | 67 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 48 | 43 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 67 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MHO's Valuation (42) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (67). This means that MHO’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (43) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MHO (48). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to MHO’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (55) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MHO (67). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to MHO’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MHO (46). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to MHO’s over the last 12 months.
MHO's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (25). This means that MHO’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| MHO | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 75% | 19 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 65% | 7 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 64% |
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MHO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MHO has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MHO jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.