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MHO vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? M/I Homes (MHO) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MHO and TOL are U.S. homebuilders, but they target different buyer segments: M/I Homes emphasizes entry-level and move-up single-family homes, while Toll Brothers is a luxury-focused builder.
- Toll Brothers is roughly four times larger by market capitalization and operates a nationwide footprint, whereas M/I Homes concentrates on 17 regional markets.
- Both companies face a common headwind — average 30-year mortgage rates rebounding above 7% — which has weighed on affordability, deliveries, and margins across the sector.
- Analyst consensus is broadly constructive on both names, but Toll Brothers attracts far wider sell-side coverage and offers a dividend, while M/I Homes pays none.
- Recent momentum favors Toll Brothers' relative stability, while M/I Homes has carried more volatility and sharper earnings revisions over recent quarters.
Introduction
Homebuilder stocks sit at the intersection of interest rates, consumer confidence, and long-term housing supply dynamics, making them a useful lens for both growth and value investors. This stock comparison examines MHO (M/I Homes, Inc.) and TOL (Toll Brothers, Inc.), two publicly traded builders that compete for many of the same buyers yet occupy distinct positions in the market. By evaluating relative performance, market positioning, and recent catalysts, traders and investors can better understand how each company is navigating a cooling, rate-sensitive housing environment — and which profile may better suit their objectives.
MHO Overview and Recent Performance
M/I Homes is a Columbus, Ohio-based builder of single-family homes serving first-time, move-up, and luxury buyers across 17 U.S. markets, including Ohio, Florida, Texas, and the Southeast. The company also operates a financial-services segment that provides mortgage and title services to its customers.
Recent market activity has been challenging for MHO. The company's GAAP earnings (earnings calculated under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) fell in 2025 and continued to decline in the first half of 2026, with homes delivered and revenue both down year over year. Rising mortgage rates and softer affordability have compressed demand and pushed cancellation rates higher. In response, M/I Homes has leaned on share repurchases, announcing a $250 million buyback authorization in recent months, while maintaining a strong balance sheet with record shareholders' equity and no borrowings under its credit facility. Despite a pullback, analyst price targets remain above current levels, though near-term earnings revisions have trended lower.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers is the leading U.S. luxury homebuilder, designing, building, and financing detached and attached homes across a nationwide footprint. Its average delivered home price of roughly $1 million reflects its premium positioning among affluent, often less rate-sensitive buyers, many of whom purchase with cash.
In its most recent fiscal quarter, TOL reported results that beat consensus estimates even as revenue and net income declined year over year. Net signed contracts rose in both units and dollar value, a relatively constructive signal in a cooling market, and the company raised its full-year guidance. Margins compressed on higher inventory impairments and costs, and management has pointed to softer demand in select markets. Toll Brothers has continued returning capital through share repurchases and an increased quarterly dividend, and it maintains substantial liquidity. Recent sell-side coverage remains broadly favorable, with several firms citing the resilience of its affluent customer base.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two builders diverge most sharply on scale, buyer mix, and capital returns. Toll Brothers commands a market capitalization near $12 billion and generates revenue from a high-end clientele, which can cushion it from mortgage-rate swings because many buyers use cash. M/I Homes, with a market cap around $3 billion, serves a broader and more rate-sensitive customer base, making its order book more exposed to affordability shifts.
On growth drivers, Toll Brothers is expanding its community count and entered the Northwest Arkansas market through the Buffington Homes acquisition, while M/I Homes is focused on operational efficiency and share buybacks rather than geographic expansion. Risk profiles also differ: M/I Homes carries a higher beta (a measure of volatility relative to the broader market) and has seen sharper earnings revisions, whereas Toll Brothers faces margin pressure from inventory impairments and higher selling costs. From a market-sentiment standpoint, Toll Brothers benefits from wider analyst coverage and a dividend, while M/I Homes trades at a comparatively low earnings multiple but with less consistent near-term momentum.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, customer-base resilience, and capital-return stability, Tickeron's AI would likely favor TOL in the current environment. Toll Brothers' affluent buyer mix, positive order growth, and ongoing share repurchases and dividends provide steadier fundamentals, even as margins compress. MHO is not without merit — its low valuation and strong balance sheet suggest potential upside — but its higher sensitivity to mortgage rates and downward earnings revisions currently imply a less favorable risk-adjusted profile. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive and reflects current market positioning rather than a recommendation.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MHO is a Hold and TOL is a StrongBuy.
MHO's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for MHO entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 183 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 132 of the 183 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MHO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for MHO's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 18 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.76% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MHO advanced for three days, in 237 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
MHO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 5 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 41 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.893) is normal, around the industry mean (1.685). P/E Ratio (9.371) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.941). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.050) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.001) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. MHO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
Momentum Indicator for TOL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TOL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 87 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 67 of the 87 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 37 of 56 cases where TOL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 42 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Following a +1.38% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 225 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
TOL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for TOL moved below the 200-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator for TOL entered a downward trend on September 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.459) is normal, around the industry mean (1.685). P/E Ratio (10.804) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.941). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
MHO | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 80 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 41 Fair valued | 69 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 57 | 45 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 70 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 72 | 57 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 15 | 29 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 5 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MHO's Valuation (41) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (69). This means that MHO’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (45) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MHO (57). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to MHO’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (58) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MHO (70). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to MHO’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (57) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MHO (72). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to MHO’s over the last 12 months.
MHO's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (29). This means that MHO’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| MHO | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 76% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | about 1 month ago 75% | 21 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 68% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MHO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MHO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MHO’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MHO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 2 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
MHO (@Homebuilding) experienced а -7.64% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +3.56% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +3.52%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.02%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.41%.
Reported Earning Dates
MHO is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+3.52% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.