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MHO vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? M/I Homes (MHO) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MHO and TOL are both U.S. residential homebuilders operating in a housing market characterized by moderating demand and elevated mortgage rates in recent weeks.
- MHO reported record second-quarter new contracts in late July 2026, while TOL prepares to release third-quarter results in mid-August amid broader sector caution.
- Year-to-date relative performance shows divergence, with MHO posting stronger gains than TOL in several market analyses through mid-August 2026.
- MHO focuses on a broader buyer demographic across multiple regions, whereas TOL emphasizes luxury segments with higher average selling prices.
- Sector sentiment reflects ongoing challenges from inventory levels and buyer affordability, influencing both stocks’ recent trading patterns without clear directional dominance.
- Market positioning highlights trade-offs in scale, with TOL commanding a larger market capitalization compared to MHO.
Introduction
Investors and traders often compare homebuilding stocks such as MHO and TOL to assess relative positioning within the residential construction sector. Both companies build and sell single-family homes across the United States, exposing them to similar macroeconomic drivers including interest rates, housing inventory, and consumer demand. This comparison appeals to those evaluating cyclical exposure, momentum shifts, and operational contrasts in the current market environment. Market participants monitoring housing data releases or sector rotations may find the analysis useful for understanding performance differentials without implying directional forecasts.
M/I Homes Overview and Recent Performance
MHO, or M/I Homes, Inc., constructs and sells single-family homes primarily in the Midwest and South, serving first-time, move-up, and multi-generational buyers. The company also offers mortgage and title services. In recent market activity, shares have reflected broader housing sector dynamics amid moderating existing-home sales reported in July 2026. Late July earnings highlighted a 15% increase in new contracts to a quarterly record, partially offset by a 6% decline in homes delivered. Sentiment has been shaped by these operational metrics alongside industry-wide affordability pressures, contributing to measured price behavior in recent weeks.
Toll Brothers Overview and Recent Performance
TOL, or Toll Brothers, Inc., specializes in luxury detached and attached homes, targeting higher-end buyers with amenities such as golf courses and smart-home features. The company maintains a national footprint with additional operations in land development and financing. Recent performance aligns with sector trends, as shares responded to cautious housing demand signals and upcoming third-quarter earnings scheduled for mid-August 2026. Analysts have noted projected revenue and earnings figures in the context of soft buyer activity. Market positioning in recent weeks has been influenced by luxury segment resilience relative to broader residential trends.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Business models differ notably: MHO serves a wider demographic spectrum across regional markets, while TOL concentrates on premium luxury communities with elevated average selling prices. Growth drivers reflect these focuses, with MHO benefiting from volume-oriented contract gains and TOL drawing on land positioning in desirable locations. Recent momentum shows MHO with comparatively stronger year-to-date returns in available comparisons, contrasted against TOL’s larger scale and market capitalization. Risk factors include shared exposure to mortgage rate sensitivity and inventory buildup, though TOL’s luxury orientation may provide relative insulation in certain cycles. Sector sentiment remains tempered by national housing data, creating trade-offs between MHO’s regional breadth and TOL’s premium positioning.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as recent contract trends, earnings visibility, and relative price stability, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a modestly higher probabilistic preference to MHO for trend consistency in the near term. This assessment incorporates MHO’s documented operational momentum alongside broader sector positioning, while acknowledging TOL’s scale advantages and upcoming earnings catalyst. The view remains probabilistic and subject to evolving market data rather than a definitive recommendation.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MHO is a Hold and TOL is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MHO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTOL’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- MHO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MHO’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MHO’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MHO (@Homebuilding) experienced а -2.46% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was -6.57% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +0.30%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.89%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.13%.
Reported Earning Dates
MHO is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Aug 25, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+0.30% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| MHO | TOL | MHO / TOL | |
| Capitalization | 3.76B | 13.4B | 28% |
| EBITDA | 516M | 1.7B | 30% |
| Gain YTD | 16.092 | 6.228 | 258% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.47 | 10.86 | 115% |
| Revenue | 4.36B | 11B | 40% |
| Total Cash | 767M | 1.11B | 69% |
| Total Debt | 1.01B | 2.92B | 35% |
MHO | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 72 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 41 Fair valued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 40 | 43 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 65 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 13 | 36 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MHO's Valuation (41) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (63). This means that MHO’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
MHO's Profit vs Risk Rating (40) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (43). This means that MHO’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (55) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MHO (65). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to MHO’s over the last 12 months.
MHO's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (52). This means that MHO’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
MHO's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (36). This means that MHO’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| MHO | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 75% | 15 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| MYHE | 25.00 | -0.04 | -0.14% |
| State Street®My2031 HighYield CrptBdETF | |||
| PSFF | 34.89 | -0.08 | -0.23% |
| Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | |||
| SPE | 13.34 | -0.12 | -0.90% |
| Special Opportunities Fund | |||
| DFIS | 37.03 | -0.41 | -1.10% |
| Dimensional International Small Cap ETF | |||
| AVGG | 26.31 | -1.94 | -6.88% |
| Leverage Shares 2X Long AVGO Daily ETF | |||
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.