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MPLX vs PAA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? MPLX LP (MPLX) vs. Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MPLX and PAA are both midstream energy Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) focused on pipelines and infrastructure for oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs).
- PAA has delivered significantly stronger year-to-date (YTD) returns of approximately 44% compared to MPLX's roughly 14% through late July 2026.
- Both entities maintain solid distribution coverage and leverage ratios within target ranges, with upcoming second-quarter 2026 earnings releases in early August.
- MPLX offers a higher current distribution yield near 7.4%, while PAA has shown greater recent price momentum amid sector tailwinds.
- Relative performance highlights trade-offs between MPLX's longer-term stability and PAA's outsized short-term gains in the current market environment.
Introduction
Midstream energy MLPs such as MPLX and PAA provide investors with exposure to fee-based infrastructure assets that transport and store hydrocarbons. These stocks appeal to income-oriented traders and investors seeking relatively stable cash flows through distributions, as well as those monitoring energy sector dynamics. The comparison examines recent relative performance, business fundamentals, and positioning within the broader midstream space to help market participants evaluate trade-offs in the prevailing environment.
MPLX Overview and Recent Performance
MPLX LP operates a diversified portfolio of midstream assets, including natural gas gathering, processing, and transportation pipelines, as well as crude oil and refined products infrastructure. In recent market activity, the stock has posted YTD returns of approximately 13.85% through late July 2026, supported by consistent operational execution and reaffirmed distributions. First-quarter 2026 results showed adjusted EBITDA of $1.7 billion and distributable cash flow of $1.4 billion, enabling capital returns while maintaining a leverage ratio of 3.7x. Sentiment has remained constructive amid stable demand for midstream services, with the partnership set to report second-quarter results on August 4, 2026.
PAA Overview and Recent Performance
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. focuses on the transportation, storage, and marketing of crude oil, refined products, and NGLs through an extensive pipeline network. Recent market activity has featured robust outperformance, with YTD total returns near 44% through late July 2026, driven by strong volume trends and raised full-year guidance following first-quarter results. The partnership reported first-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $730 million and announced a quarterly distribution of $0.4175 per unit payable in August, with second-quarter earnings scheduled for release on August 7, 2026. Market positioning reflects resilience in core segments and favorable leverage metrics post-asset adjustments.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both MPLX and PAA operate fee-based midstream models with long-term contracts that provide relative insulation from commodity price swings. MPLX benefits from broader asset diversification and a higher distribution yield, supporting income-focused strategies, while PAA has exhibited stronger recent momentum tied to volume growth and guidance upgrades. Risk factors include leverage management and regulatory considerations common to the sector, with PAA showing higher near-term volatility alongside its outperformance. Market sentiment favors PAA on short-term catalysts, whereas MPLX offers a track record of steadier long-term total returns in the midstream space.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency and relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a probabilistic edge to PAA due to its stronger recent momentum and sector-specific catalysts. MPLX remains competitive on yield and stability metrics. Outcomes depend on earnings execution and broader energy dynamics.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MPLX is a Buy and PAA is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPLX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePAA’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- MPLX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PAA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPLX’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PAA’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPLX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PAA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MPLX (@Oil & Gas Pipelines) experienced а -0.88% price change this week, while PAA (@Oil & Gas Pipelines) price change was -0.30% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Pipelines industry was +7.28%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.43%, and the average quarterly price growth was +19.82%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPLX is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
PAA is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Pipelines (+7.28% weekly)Oil & Gas Pipelines industry includes companies that transport natural gas and crude oil through pipelines. These companies also collect and market the fuels. The pipeline segment could be considered as a midstream operation – functioning as a link between the upstream and downstream operations in the oil and gas industry. Some of the largest U.S. pipeline players include Enterprise Products Partners L.P, TC Energy Corporation and Energy Transfer, L.P.
| MPLX | PAA | MPLX / PAA | |
| Capitalization | 59.6B | 16.6B | 359% |
| EBITDA | 7.35B | 2.91B | 253% |
| Gain YTD | 16.642 | 38.185 | 44% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.65 | 20.05 | 63% |
| Revenue | 11.7B | 45.3B | 26% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 26.1B | 11.6B | 225% |
MPLX | PAA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 76 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 8 Undervalued | 5 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 2 | 4 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 87 | 74 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 80 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PAA's Valuation (5) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry is in the same range as MPLX (8). This means that PAA’s stock grew similarly to MPLX’s over the last 12 months.
MPLX's Profit vs Risk Rating (2) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry is in the same range as PAA (4). This means that MPLX’s stock grew similarly to PAA’s over the last 12 months.
PAA's SMR Rating (74) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry is in the same range as MPLX (87). This means that PAA’s stock grew similarly to MPLX’s over the last 12 months.
PAA's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry is in the same range as MPLX (46). This means that PAA’s stock grew similarly to MPLX’s over the last 12 months.
MPLX's P/E Growth Rating (41) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PAA (80). This means that MPLX’s stock grew somewhat faster than PAA’s over the last 12 months.
| MPLX | PAA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 27% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 51% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 29% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 31% | 10 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 37% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 66% |
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MPLX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPLX has been loosely correlated with DKL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MPLX jumps, then DKL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MPLX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPLX | 100% | -1.87% | ||
| DKL - MPLX | 52% Loosely correlated | -12.83% | ||
| ET - MPLX | 48% Loosely correlated | -0.91% | ||
| PAA - MPLX | 44% Loosely correlated | +0.90% | ||
| PAGP - MPLX | 44% Loosely correlated | +1.35% | ||
| EPD - MPLX | 43% Loosely correlated | +0.26% | ||
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PAA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PAA has been closely correlated with PAGP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 97% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PAA jumps, then PAGP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PAA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAA | 100% | +0.90% | ||
| PAGP - PAA | 97% Closely correlated | +1.35% | ||
| AM - PAA | 77% Closely correlated | -0.72% | ||
| WES - PAA | 54% Loosely correlated | +0.25% | ||
| TRGP - PAA | 54% Loosely correlated | -0.67% | ||
| ET - PAA | 51% Loosely correlated | -0.91% | ||
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