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PAA vs TRGP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) vs. Targa Resources (TRGP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PAA focuses on crude oil transportation and logistics, with recent strategic moves including the pending sale of its Canadian NGL (natural gas liquids) business and integration of the Cactus III pipeline, positioning it as a pure-play crude midstream operator.
- TRGP emphasizes natural gas gathering, processing, and NGL logistics, benefiting from record Permian Basin volumes and aggressive expansion projects.
- Year-to-date, TRGP has outperformed with approximately 42% gains compared to PAA's 31%, driven by stronger momentum in natural gas processing amid rising demand.
- Both stocks offer attractive yields, with PAA recently raising its quarterly distribution by 10% to $0.4175 per unit and TRGP hiking its dividend 25% to $1.25 per share, reflecting confidence in cash flows.
- TRGP trades at a higher P/E ratio (around 30x) versus PAA (around 18x), indicating premium valuation for its growth profile but potentially higher risk.
- Recent market activity shows both benefiting from midstream sector tailwinds, though TRGP exhibits greater volatility tied to Permian production surges.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines PAA (Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.) and TRGP (Targa Resources Corp.), two key players in the energy midstream sector. Both companies provide critical infrastructure for crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGL), serving major U.S. basins like the Permian. Traders seeking momentum and income may appreciate their high yields and relative performance amid volatile commodity prices, while long-term investors could value their fee-based revenue models and expansion catalysts. In recent market activity, midstream stocks have gained from steady production volumes and export demand, making this head-to-head analysis timely for evaluating relative positioning in stock portfolios.
PAA Overview and Recent Performance
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) is a master limited partnership (MLP) specializing in crude oil pipeline transportation, terminalling, storage, and gathering across the U.S. and Canada. It operates an extensive network handling over 9 million barrels per day, primarily through its Crude Oil segment, with NGL activities focused on processing and fractionation.
In recent weeks, PAA's stock has traded around $22.65, reflecting year-to-date gains of about 31% and 48% over one year, outperforming the S&P 500. Sentiment has been bolstered by a 10% quarterly distribution increase to $0.4175 per unit (annualized $1.67), signaling strong free cash flow expectations of $1.8 billion in 2026. Key developments include the pending $5.15 billion CAD sale of its Canadian NGL business to Keyera Corp., expected in Q1 2026, and full integration of the Cactus III pipeline (formerly EPIC Crude) in the Permian, targeting $50 million in synergies and $100 million in cost savings through 2027. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approval for fair-value accounting on Cactus III has enhanced strategic focus on crude operations, driving positive price behavior amid sector rotation into energy infrastructure.
TRGP Overview and Recent Performance
Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) owns and operates midstream assets focused on gathering, processing, transporting, and selling natural gas and NGLs, with key exposure to the Permian Basin and Gulf Coast export markets. Its segments include Gathering & Processing and Logistics & Transportation, supporting liquefied petroleum gas exports and fractionation.
Recently, TRGP shares have hovered near $259, posting year-to-date returns of roughly 42% and 64% over one year, surpassing broader indices and peer PAA. Performance reflects record Permian volumes exceeding 6.6 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day), robust 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $4.96 billion (up 20% year-over-year), and a 25% dividend hike to $1.25 quarterly ($5.00 annualized) for Q1 2026. Expansions like the Bull Moose II plant, Delaware Express Pipeline, and Forza interstate gas pipeline underscore growth, with Q1 2026 earnings anticipated to show 175% EPS growth. These catalysts, amid rising natural gas demand, have fueled sentiment shifts and upward momentum.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
PAA and TRGP both thrive in midstream energy but diverge in focus: PAA emphasizes crude oil logistics with lower volatility (beta ~0.5), while TRGP leverages NGL and gas processing tied to Permian growth (beta ~0.7). Growth drivers contrast—PAA via NGL divestiture proceeds for debt reduction (target 3.25x-3.75x leverage) and Cactus III synergies; TRGP through plant expansions and exports, projecting $5.4-5.6B EBITDA in 2026.
Recent momentum favors TRGP with superior YTD/1Y returns, but PAA offers cheaper valuation (P/E ~18x vs. 30x) and higher yield stability as an MLP. Risk factors include commodity exposure—crude for PAA, gas/NGL for TRGP—plus regulatory hurdles for PAA's Canadian sale. Sector-wise, both gain from Permian output, but TRGP shows stronger market sentiment via analyst upgrades. Trade-offs: PAA for income/defensive positioning; TRGP for growth potential.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors TRGP due to superior trend consistency in recent market activity, higher relative YTD performance (42% vs. 31%), and catalysts like Permian volume records and dividend growth signaling robust cash flow positioning. While PAA offers stability and value, TRGP's momentum and expansion outlook provide a probabilistic edge for near-term outperformance in a growth-oriented energy environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PAA is a Buy and TRGP is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PAA’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileTRGP’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- PAA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TRGP’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PAA’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TRGP’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PAA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TRGP’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
PAA (@Oil & Gas Pipelines) experienced а +5.32% price change this week, while TRGP (@Oil & Gas Pipelines) price change was +8.50% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Pipelines industry was +0.95%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.43%, and the average quarterly price growth was +34.83%.
Reported Earning Dates
PAA is expected to report earnings on Jul 31, 2026.
TRGP is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Pipelines (+0.95% weekly)Oil & Gas Pipelines industry includes companies that transport natural gas and crude oil through pipelines. These companies also collect and market the fuels. The pipeline segment could be considered as a midstream operation – functioning as a link between the upstream and downstream operations in the oil and gas industry. Some of the largest U.S. pipeline players include Enterprise Products Partners L.P, TC Energy Corporation and Energy Transfer, L.P.
| PAA | TRGP | PAA / TRGP | |
| Capitalization | 16.7B | 59.3B | 28% |
| EBITDA | 2.91B | 5.22B | 56% |
| Gain YTD | 36.874 | 51.204 | 72% |
| P/E Ratio | 21.28 | 28.21 | 75% |
| Revenue | 44.3B | 16.6B | 267% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 100M | - |
| Total Debt | 11.5B | 19.1B | 60% |
PAA | TRGP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 26 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 9 Undervalued | 48 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 6 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 64 | 15 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 42 | 15 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 34 | 58 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 26 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PAA's Valuation (9) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TRGP (48) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PAA’s stock grew somewhat faster than TRGP’s over the last 12 months.
PAA's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry is in the same range as TRGP (7) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PAA’s stock grew similarly to TRGP’s over the last 12 months.
TRGP's SMR Rating (15) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PAA (64) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry. This means that TRGP’s stock grew somewhat faster than PAA’s over the last 12 months.
TRGP's Price Growth Rating (15) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PAA (42) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry. This means that TRGP’s stock grew similarly to PAA’s over the last 12 months.
PAA's P/E Growth Rating (34) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry is in the same range as TRGP (58) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PAA’s stock grew similarly to TRGP’s over the last 12 months.
| PAA | TRGP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 38% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 82% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 53% | about 1 month ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 46% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 80% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| BUYO | 30.14 | N/A | N/A |
| KraneShares Man Buyout Beta Index ETF | |||
| RPG | 55.58 | -0.38 | -0.68% |
| Invesco S&P 500® Pure Growth ETF | |||
| PABD | 66.97 | -0.48 | -0.72% |
| iSharesParis-AlgndClmOptdMSCIWldexUSAETF | |||
| FMY | 11.50 | -0.09 | -0.78% |
| FIRST TRUST MORTGAGE Income FUND | |||
| RKLX | 83.01 | -6.15 | -6.90% |
| Defiance Daily Target 2X Long RKLB ETF | |||
PAA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PAA has been closely correlated with PAGP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 96% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PAA jumps, then PAGP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PAA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAA | 100% | +1.96% | ||
| PAGP - PAA | 96% Closely correlated | +1.87% | ||
| AM - PAA | 77% Closely correlated | +0.40% | ||
| OKE - PAA | 57% Loosely correlated | +1.58% | ||
| EPD - PAA | 57% Loosely correlated | +0.86% | ||
| TRGP - PAA | 53% Loosely correlated | +0.55% | ||
More | ||||
TRGP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TRGP has been closely correlated with OKE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TRGP jumps, then OKE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TRGP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRGP | 100% | +0.55% | ||
| OKE - TRGP | 71% Closely correlated | +1.58% | ||
| KMI - TRGP | 54% Loosely correlated | +1.57% | ||
| KNTK - TRGP | 54% Loosely correlated | +0.42% | ||
| PAGP - TRGP | 53% Loosely correlated | +1.87% | ||
| VNOM - TRGP | 53% Loosely correlated | -0.77% | ||
More | ||||