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MUFG vs SMFG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) vs. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MUFG and SMFG are Japanese megabanks benefiting from the Bank of Japan's interest-rate normalization and rising lending margins.
- MUFG is Japan's largest bank, with a more global footprint and a roughly 24% stake in Morgan Stanley, while SMFG is the second-largest, with a growing Jefferies alliance.
- Both lenders have posted record or near-record annual profits, supported by strong loan demand and the end of Japan's deflation.
- Capital returns are active across both names, with share buybacks, dividend increases, and a recent stock split at SMFG.
- The comparison hinges on scale and global diversification (MUFG) versus capital-return discipline and earnings momentum (SMFG).
Introduction
Japanese banks have re-emerged as a focal point for global investors as the country's interest rates normalize for the first time in decades. This stock comparison examines two of the sector's largest players: MUFG (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group) and SMFG (Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group). Both institutions are benefiting from higher net interest income, improved lending spreads, and increased corporate activity. For traders and long-term investors weighing market positioning, scale, and growth catalysts, understanding the relative performance and structural differences between these two megabanks is essential to evaluating which better aligns with current market conditions.
MUFG Overview and Recent Performance
MUFG, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, is Japan's largest banking group by market capitalization and assets and one of the largest non-Chinese banks globally. Its operations span domestic retail and corporate banking, Southeast Asian franchises such as Krungsri in Thailand and Bank Danamon in Indonesia, and a meaningful equity-method stake in Morgan Stanley, which contributes a significant share of group net income.
In recent market activity, MUFG has sustained a strong multi-year upward trend, with its American depositary receipts trading well above their 52-week low and roughly mid-range within their 52-week high. The group reported record fiscal-year profit, with return on equity (ROE, a measure of profitability relative to shareholder capital) exceeding 11% for the first time since its formation. Sentiment has been shaped by rising yen interest rates, expanding net interest income, and strategic investments such as a stake in India's Shriram Finance. However, a decline in its Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio below the company's target range has drawn analyst attention as a watch item.
SMFG Overview and Recent Performance
SMFG, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, is Japan's second-largest lender, centered on Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, with commercial banking, leasing, securities, and consumer finance operations in Japan and overseas. Its global strategy is anchored by an alliance with Jefferies Financial Group, which the company has signaled it may deepen into areas such as equity trading.
In recent quarters, SMFG has delivered standout earnings momentum. The group posted a sharp jump in fourth-quarter net profit and a record annual result, then guided toward another record year ahead, supported by strong domestic retail banking and trading income amid elevated market volatility. Management has also prioritized shareholder returns through share buybacks, dividend growth, and a two-for-one stock split, alongside overseas expansion in India and Southeast Asia. These actions have reinforced a narrative of capital efficiency and confident forward guidance, even as valuation multiples have expanded.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast is scale versus focus. MUFG offers broader geographic diversification and deeper exposure to global markets through Morgan Stanley and its Southeast Asian franchises, which can smooth earnings but also introduce complexity. SMFG is smaller but has demonstrated sharper recent earnings growth and more aggressive capital-return and restructuring actions.
On growth drivers, both rely on Japan's rising rates and end-of-deflation corporate activity. MUFG's growth is partly tied to overseas acquisitions and fee income, while SMFG emphasizes domestic retail strength, trading gains, and its Jefferies partnership. On risk factors, MUFG faces scrutiny over its capital ratio, whereas SMFG faces execution risk around overseas expansion and an elevated valuation relative to its own history. Market sentiment has favored both, but their relative positioning differs: MUFG is often viewed through the lens of global scale, while SMFG is framed around earnings momentum and capital efficiency.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, earnings momentum, and the clarity of near-term catalysts, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward SMFG in the current environment. The combination of accelerating profit growth, record guidance, active capital returns, and a broadening global strategy presents a comparatively stronger momentum profile. That said, MUFG's scale, diversification, and steady rate-driven earnings support remain compelling, particularly for investors prioritizing stability over speed. The relative edge is probabilistic rather than definitive and could shift as capital-ratio developments, rate expectations, and overseas execution evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MUFG is a StrongBuy and SMFG is a StrongBuy.
MUFG's RSI Oscillator is remaining in oversold zone for 1 day
It is expected that a price bounce should occur soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 11 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.67% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MUFG advanced for three days, in 246 of 343 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
MUFG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MUFG as a result. In 47 of 97 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
MUFG moved below its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MUFG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 6 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 38%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MUFG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 43%.
The Aroon Indicator for MUFG entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 19 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: MUFG's P/B Ratio (0.010) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (1.507). MUFG's P/E Ratio (0.089) is considerably lower than the industry average of (11.673). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.830) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.024) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. MUFG's P/S Ratio (5.160) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.867).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MUFG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
SMFG's RSI Indicator stays in oversold zone for 1 day
It is expected that a price bounce should occur soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 11 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.69% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SMFG advanced for three days, in 244 of 347 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
SMFG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
SMFG moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SMFG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 4 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 22%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SMFG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 42%.
The Aroon Indicator for SMFG entered a downward trend on October 26, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 25 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SMFG's P/B Ratio (0.009) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (1.507). SMFG's P/E Ratio (0.089) is considerably lower than the industry average of (11.673). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.432) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.028) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.218) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SMFG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
MUFG | SMFG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 63 | 68 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 19 Undervalued | 25 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 1 | 1 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 1 | 1 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MUFG's Valuation (19) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as SMFG (25). This means that MUFG’s stock grew similarly to SMFG’s over the last 12 months.
MUFG's Profit vs Risk Rating (1) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as SMFG (1). This means that MUFG’s stock grew similarly to SMFG’s over the last 12 months.
MUFG's SMR Rating (1) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as SMFG (1). This means that MUFG’s stock grew similarly to SMFG’s over the last 12 months.
MUFG's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as SMFG (48). This means that MUFG’s stock grew similarly to SMFG’s over the last 12 months.
MUFG's P/E Growth Rating (97) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as SMFG (97). This means that MUFG’s stock grew similarly to SMFG’s over the last 12 months.
| MUFG | SMFG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 45% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 42% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 72% | 22 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 43% | 5 days ago 42% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 40% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MUFG’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while SMFG’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- MUFG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- SMFG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MUFG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SMFG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MUFG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SMFG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MUFG (@Major Banks) experienced а -2.63% price change this week, while SMFG (@Major Banks) price change was -2.46% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was +0.29%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.75%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.54%.
Reported Earning Dates
MUFG is expected to report earnings on Nov 13, 2026.
SMFG is expected to report earnings on Nov 13, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Major Banks (+0.29% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
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MUFG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MUFG has been closely correlated with SMFG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MUFG jumps, then SMFG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MUFG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUFG | 100% | +0.09% | ||
| SMFG - MUFG | 89% Closely correlated | +0.04% | ||
| ING - MUFG | 56% Loosely correlated | +1.54% | ||
| BCS - MUFG | 56% Loosely correlated | +2.44% | ||
| BMO - MUFG | 51% Loosely correlated | +0.81% | ||
| SAN - MUFG | 51% Loosely correlated | -3.66% | ||
More | ||||
SMFG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SMFG has been closely correlated with MUFG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SMFG jumps, then MUFG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SMFG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMFG | 100% | +0.04% | ||
| MUFG - SMFG | 89% Closely correlated | +0.09% | ||
| ING - SMFG | 57% Loosely correlated | +1.54% | ||
| HSBC - SMFG | 54% Loosely correlated | +0.58% | ||
| BCS - SMFG | 54% Loosely correlated | +2.44% | ||
| SAN - SMFG | 53% Loosely correlated | -3.66% | ||
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