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MUFG vs SMFG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) vs. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MUFG holds a larger market cap of approximately $202 billion compared to SMFG's $135 billion, reflecting greater scale and global reach via its Morgan Stanley partnership.
- Both stocks delivered strong one-year returns around 46-51%, with YTD gains of 10-13%, though recent market volatility has pressured prices in recent weeks.
- CET1 ratios stand solid at ~10.5% for MUFG and 12.75% for SMFG (common equity tier 1 capital ratio, a key measure of bank capital strength), supporting resilience amid rate shifts.
- MUFG edges in ROE (return on equity, profitability relative to shareholders' equity) at ~9-10%, bolstered by net interest income (NII, earnings from loans minus deposit costs) growth from Japan rate hikes.
- Recent expansions include MUFG's APAC M&A leadership and SMFG's U.S. aircraft leasing acquisition, signaling proactive growth strategies.
- Low betas (0.32 for MUFG, 0.39 for SMFG) indicate lower volatility than the broader market, appealing for stability-focused investors.
Introduction
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) represent Japan's megabanks, dominating domestic lending with international footprints. This comparison analyzes their business models, recent performance amid Bank of Japan rate normalization, and relative positioning in a reflationary environment. Traders seeking momentum in financials and long-term investors eyeing dividend yields and capital returns will find value in evaluating their scale, profitability metrics, and exposure to global growth drivers like overseas lending and securities alliances.
MUFG Overview and Recent Performance
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), Japan's largest bank by market cap, operates retail, corporate, and investment banking globally, bolstered by a significant stake in Morgan Stanley. In recent market activity, MUFG shares traded around $18, with YTD returns near 13% and one-year gains of 46%, outperforming broader indices in longer horizons but facing pullbacks amid yen volatility and geopolitical tensions. Sentiment has been supported by robust net profits up 31% in recent fiscal periods to ¥1.86 trillion, driven by NII expansion from higher Japanese rates and overseas contributions. Key developments include leading APAC M&A advisory and financing for renewables like MN8 Energy's solar projects. Capital strength shines with CET1 at ~10.5-11% (excluding unrealized gains), ROE around 9.9%, and low beta of 0.32, cushioning against equity market swings. Trading near 52-week highs earlier, recent weeks saw consolidation as oil spikes weighed on risk assets.
SMFG Overview and Recent Performance
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG), a close peer with strong retail and SME focus, manages consumer finance via Promise and SMBC Card alongside global wholesale banking. Shares hovered near $21 in recent trading, posting YTD returns of ~11% and one-year advances of ~51%, reflecting solid momentum though tempered by broader financial sector rotation. Performance drew from profit growth to $8.99 billion over nine months, fueled by rate-sensitive NII and fee income, with gross profits up ¥569 billion year-over-year. Highlights encompass a new group vision targeting mid-teens ROE, U.S. expansion via 2,000 Charlotte jobs, and SMBC Aviation Capital's Air Lease stake. CET1 ratio strengthened to 12.75%, ROE near 9-12% in segments, and beta of 0.39 underscore stability. Recent weeks mirrored peer pressures from JGB yield shifts and global risks, yet strategic moves like Jefferies alliance exploration sustain positive sentiment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both MUFG and SMFG pursue universal banking models emphasizing domestic deposits/loans (MUFG 8.4% share, SMFG 7.3%), but MUFG's Morgan Stanley tie enhances global investment banking, while SMFG leans into consumer finance and leasing. Growth drivers diverge: MUFG benefits from APAC deal flow and renewables financing; SMFG from U.S. operations and aircraft assets. Recent momentum shows SMFG's slight one-year edge (51% vs. 46%), yet MUFG trades closer to highs with steadier trends. Risk factors include JGB volatility impacting NII and geopolitical oil shocks, though low betas mitigate equity risks. Sector exposure aligns in Japan rates (boosting margins) but MUFG offers broader diversification. P/E ratios favor SMFG at 15 vs. MUFG's 17, trading value amid comparable 9-10% ROE and CET1 buffers above 10%.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently lean toward MUFG due to its superior scale, consistent earnings beats (75% rate), and positioning via Morgan Stanley for global catalysts amid Japan reflation. Trend stability and CET1 resilience suggest higher probability of outperformance versus SMFG's retail tilt, though both warrant monitoring for rate-driven NII lifts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MUFG is a Hold and SMFG is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MUFG’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileSMFG’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- MUFG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- SMFG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MUFG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SMFG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MUFG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SMFG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MUFG (@Major Banks) experienced а +3.37% price change this week, while SMFG (@Major Banks) price change was +3.00% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was +0.98%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was +16.30%.
Reported Earning Dates
MUFG is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
SMFG is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Major Banks (+0.98% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
| MUFG | SMFG | MUFG / SMFG | |
| Capitalization | 233B | 157B | 148% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 31.526 | 29.488 | 107% |
| P/E Ratio | 15.85 | 16.34 | 97% |
| Revenue | 7.52T | 5.79T | 130% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 35.1T | 32.55T | 108% |
MUFG | SMFG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 83 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 86 Overvalued | 83 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 1 | 1 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 29 | 27 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SMFG's Valuation (83) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as MUFG (86). This means that SMFG’s stock grew similarly to MUFG’s over the last 12 months.
SMFG's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as MUFG (7). This means that SMFG’s stock grew similarly to MUFG’s over the last 12 months.
SMFG's SMR Rating (1) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as MUFG (1). This means that SMFG’s stock grew similarly to MUFG’s over the last 12 months.
SMFG's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as MUFG (41). This means that SMFG’s stock grew similarly to MUFG’s over the last 12 months.
SMFG's P/E Growth Rating (27) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as MUFG (29). This means that SMFG’s stock grew similarly to MUFG’s over the last 12 months.
| MUFG | SMFG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 48% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 72% | 6 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 44% | 8 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 68% |
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MUFG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MUFG has been closely correlated with SMFG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MUFG jumps, then SMFG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MUFG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUFG | 100% | -1.04% | ||
| SMFG - MUFG | 89% Closely correlated | -0.79% | ||
| BCS - MUFG | 59% Loosely correlated | +3.72% | ||
| SAN - MUFG | 56% Loosely correlated | +1.56% | ||
| ING - MUFG | 52% Loosely correlated | +2.68% | ||
| BBVA - MUFG | 49% Loosely correlated | +1.51% | ||
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SMFG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SMFG has been closely correlated with MUFG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SMFG jumps, then MUFG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SMFG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMFG | 100% | -0.79% | ||
| MUFG - SMFG | 88% Closely correlated | -1.04% | ||
| BCS - SMFG | 54% Loosely correlated | +3.72% | ||
| SAN - SMFG | 53% Loosely correlated | +1.56% | ||
| ING - SMFG | 51% Loosely correlated | +2.68% | ||
| HSBC - SMFG | 48% Loosely correlated | +1.62% | ||
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