Advertisement
NKE vs UA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Nike (NKE) vs. Under Armour (UA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both NKE and UA are navigating multi-year turnarounds in a pressured athletic-apparel sector, but their scale and risk profiles differ sharply.
- Nike remains the global category leader with roughly $46 billion in annual revenue, yet its stock has fallen sharply in 2026 on weak guidance and margin pressure.
- Under Armour is a much smaller, higher-beta business whose restructuring and margin-repair story is still unfolding.
- Nike offers a durable, growing dividend; Under Armour pays no dividend and recently swung to a net-debt position.
- Analyst consensus is "Hold" for both stocks, reflecting limited near-term conviction on either turnaround.
Introduction
Nike and Under Armour are two of the most recognized names in athletic apparel, yet they occupy very different positions within the same competitive landscape. Nike is the world's largest sportswear brand, while Under Armour is a smaller performance-focused challenger working through a long-running reset. For traders and investors evaluating consumer-discretionary exposure, this stock comparison is useful because it contrasts a market leader defending its share against a turnaround candidate attempting to rebuild profitability. Understanding the relative performance, market positioning, and momentum of NKE and UA can help clarify which risk-reward profile fits a given strategy.
NKE Overview and Recent Performance
Nike, Inc. (NKE) designs, markets, and distributes athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment under the Nike and Jordan brands. As the dominant player in the sector, it generates annual revenue in the range of $46 billion. In recent weeks, the stock has traded near multi-year lows, reflecting a difficult stretch that has seen shares decline materially through 2026. The company's fiscal 2026 results showed revenue that was essentially flat year over year, with growth in North America offset by continued weakness in Greater China.
Sentiment has been shaped by a few key factors. Higher U.S. tariffs have compressed gross margins for several consecutive quarters, while management has guided for a high-single-digit revenue decline in fiscal 2027 as it accelerates an inventory cleanup and restructuring. CEO Elliott Hill's "Win Now" turnaround has included job reductions and a renewed push into wholesale channels. On the positive side, North American sell-through has improved, the dividend yield has climbed toward roughly 4% on 24 consecutive years of increases, and the balance sheet retains a large cash cushion. Still, near-term catalysts remain limited, and credit agencies have turned more cautious on the company's outlook.
UA Overview and Recent Performance
Under Armour, Inc. (UA) develops and markets performance apparel, footwear, and accessories for men, women, and youth. It is a materially smaller business, with annual revenue near $5 billion, and it carries a higher beta (a measure of volatility relative to the broader market). In recent market activity, shares have traded in the mid-single digits, and the company has continued to execute a multi-year brand reset led by founder and CEO Kevin Plank.
Recent results and guidance have underscored the slow pace of recovery. Fiscal 2026 revenue declined by a low-single-digit percentage, and the company posted a wider full-year net loss as it absorbed restructuring costs and tariff-related margin pressure. Management has guided for a modest revenue decline in fiscal 2027 alongside expected margin expansion and adjusted operating income in the range of $140 million to $160 million. The strategy centers on premiumization, SKU (stock-keeping unit) reduction, and higher-quality revenue, with North America wholesale remaining soft while international markets show pockets of strength. Notably, UK-based Frasers Group recently disclosed an 8.8% stake, an external signal of strategic interest. Analysts, however, have flagged a delayed turnaround and elevated operating costs.
Trending AI Robots
For investors who want a data-driven view of names like these, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated selection of algorithmic trading tools. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI Trading Bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, but only the strongest and most suitable performers for current market conditions earn a place in this featured section. Each bot operates with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance history, and universe of tickers, so no two are identical. This diversity lets users review bots tailored to different risk appetites, from short-term momentum strategies to longer-horizon trend approaches. Browsing the Trending AI Robots can be a practical starting point for identifying systematic signals on stocks such as Nike and Under Armour.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The most striking contrast between the two companies is scale and financial resilience. NKE generates nearly ten times the revenue of UA, maintains a substantial cash position, and returns capital to shareholders through a dividend it has raised for more than two decades. Under Armour, by contrast, pays no dividend and has shifted from a net-cash to a net-debt position as its restructuring progresses.
Growth drivers also diverge. Nike's near-term story hinges on stabilizing North America while repairing a materially weakened Greater China segment. Under Armour's path depends on margin execution and premiumization, with management explicitly accepting modest revenue declines to improve the quality of sales. On risk factors, both face tariff exposure, promotional retail environments, and rising competition from newer brands, but Under Armour's smaller scale and higher beta make it comparatively more volatile and more sensitive to a single misstep.
From a momentum and sentiment standpoint, neither stock is showing strong bullish conviction. Both carry "Hold" consensus ratings, and recent analyst actions have leaned cautious or negative. The difference is structural: Nike offers a stronger balance sheet and brand moat, while Under Armour offers a smaller base and a higher degree of operating leverage if its margin story succeeds.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, financial stability, catalyst visibility, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely express a cautious preference for NKE over UA in the current environment. Nike's larger scale, resilient balance sheet, established dividend, and early signs of North American stabilization provide a steadier foundation than Under Armour's still-unproven margin turnaround. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: Nike's own negative near-term revenue guidance and margin pressure mean the AI would likely frame the choice as a relative call favoring stability over a higher-risk, higher-uncertainty restructuring story, rather than a strong conviction on either name.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NKE is a StrongBuy and UA is a StrongBuy.
NKE in +2.02% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on October 20, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where NKE advanced for three days, in 143 of 267 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NKE as a result. In 46 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NKE just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where NKE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 20 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
NKE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NKE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
NKE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for NKE entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NKE’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 64 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.745) is normal, around the industry mean (2.954). P/E Ratio (17.871) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.630). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.427) is also within normal values, averaging (0.949). NKE has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.044) as compared to the industry average of (0.022). P/S Ratio (1.142) is also within normal values, averaging (1.252).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NKE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock worse than average.
UA in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on September 28, 2026
UA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 33 of 39 cases where UA's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where UA's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 31 of 42 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 41 of 63 cases where UA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UA just turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where UA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Following a +1.05% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UA advanced for three days, in 196 of 285 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UA as a result. In 58 of 77 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
The 50-day moving average for UA moved below the 200-day moving average on September 17, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
The Aroon Indicator for UA entered a downward trend on October 08, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 39 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.375) is normal, around the industry mean (2.700). P/E Ratio (-3.974) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.111). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.073) is also within normal values, averaging (0.686). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.120) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.423) is also within normal values, averaging (0.827).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. UA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
NKE | UA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 6 | 11 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 64 Fair valued | 39 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 44 | 97 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 74 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 88 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UA's Valuation (39) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as NKE (64). This means that UA’s stock grew similarly to NKE’s over the last 12 months.
UA's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as NKE (100). This means that UA’s stock grew similarly to NKE’s over the last 12 months.
NKE's SMR Rating (44) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UA (97). This means that NKE’s stock grew somewhat faster than UA’s over the last 12 months.
NKE's Price Growth Rating (61) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as UA (74). This means that NKE’s stock grew similarly to UA’s over the last 12 months.
NKE's P/E Growth Rating (88) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as UA (97). This means that NKE’s stock grew similarly to UA’s over the last 12 months.
| NKE | UA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 75% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 83% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 11 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 72% | 9 days ago 78% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 85% | 1 day ago 85% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 80% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NKE’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while UA’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- NKE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- UA’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NKE’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UA’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NKE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
NKE (@Wholesale Distributors) experienced а +3.18% price change this week, while UA (@Apparel/Footwear) price change was -1.93% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Wholesale Distributors industry was -3.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.10%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Apparel/Footwear industry was +0.83%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.89%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3.66%.
Reported Earning Dates
NKE is expected to report earnings on Dec 17, 2026.
UA is expected to report earnings on Nov 06, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Wholesale Distributors (-3.86% weekly)Companies in this industry handle the wholesale shipments for the manufacturer of a product. They have warehouses and distribution centers, and they ship products directly to the retailer. Digitization, increasing competition, emerging customer demand, and product innovation are some of shifts that the industry has been facing in recent times – something that is potentially creating needs/opportunities for business model revisions or transformations. Data, analytics, and technology are becoming increasingly important for whole distributors in anticipating and analyzing consumer needs, and therefore planning their business strategies accordingly. Fastenal Company, W.W. Grainger, Inc., Genuine Parts Company and Pool Corporation are some of the largest names in the business.
@Apparel/Footwear (+0.83% weekly)Apparel/footwear might be slightly more ‘cyclical’ in the largely non-cyclical category of non-durables. While digital giants like Amazon have been rapidly expanding their presence, traditional clothing/footwear retailers have also been bulking up their online presence in recent years, to milk the burgeoning trend of online shopping among consumers across the globe. The apparel and footwear retail market was valued at around $ 360 billion in 2018, and this figure was expected to reach about $386 billion by 2020 (according to a Statista report). NIKE, Inc, V.F. Corporation and Under Armour, Inc. are some of the companies with the largest U.S. stock market caps in this segment.
Advertisement
UA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UA has been closely correlated with UAA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 99% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UA jumps, then UAA could also see price increases.