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COLM vs NKE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM) vs. Nike, Inc. (NKE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Columbia Sportswear (COLM) is showing modest recovery momentum, while Nike (NKE) remains in a deep multi-year drawdown.
- COLM trades at roughly 14x earnings with a debt-free balance sheet, whereas NKE carries a higher multiple and elevated restructuring uncertainty.
- COLM's international business is growing, but its U.S. market remains soft; NKE's Greater China segment is contracting sharply.
- NKE offers a substantially higher dividend yield (above 4%) than COLM (around 2%), reflecting divergent risk profiles.
- NKE has fallen more than 40% year-to-date, while COLM has held roughly flat over the same stretch, a wide gap in relative performance.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two well-known names in consumer apparel and footwear: Columbia Sportswear Company, an outdoor-focused brand, and Nike, Inc., the world's largest sportswear maker. Both operate in the same discretionary sector, yet they currently sit at very different points in their business cycles. Value-conscious investors may find COLM's modest valuation and clean balance sheet appealing, while contrarian and income-oriented traders may be drawn to NKE's fallen share price and elevated yield. Understanding their relative performance, market positioning, and risk factors can help both long-term investors and shorter-horizon traders assess where opportunity currently lies.
COLM Overview and Recent Performance
Columbia Sportswear Company designs and sells outdoor apparel, footwear, and accessories under brands including Columbia, SOREL, Mountain Hardwear, and prAna. In recent market activity, COLM has held up notably better than the broader sportswear complex, with its shares trading near the middle of a 52-week range and roughly flat on a year-to-date basis after a softer three-month stretch.
Recent quarters have reflected a bifurcated business. International sales, which now exceed 40% of revenue, continue to grow at a healthy pace, led by EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) and Latin America/Asia Pacific. Footwear has been a bright spot, with technical styles and premium hiking products gaining traction under the company's ACCELERATE growth strategy. However, the U.S. market has lagged, weighed down by soft wholesale orders and cautious consumer demand. A one-time tariff refund boosted reported results in the most recent quarter, but underlying margins remain under pressure. The company maintains a strong balance sheet with meaningful cash and no debt, which supports its buyback program and dividend.
NKE Overview and Recent Performance
Nike, Inc. is the global leader in athletic footwear and apparel, operating brands including Nike, Jordan, Converse, and ACG. In contrast to COLM, NKE has experienced a severe decline, with shares trading near multi-year lows and down more than 40% year-to-date after a prolonged slide.
The company's challenges are well documented. Greater China revenue has contracted sharply, and the Converse brand has struggled alongside Nike's direct-to-consumer channel. Management guided fiscal 2027 revenue to decline by a high-single-digit percentage and introduced a restructuring program called "Pace," targeting roughly $2.5 billion in cumulative savings through fiscal 2031. Credit agencies have responded with rating actions and negative outlooks. On the positive side, Nike's North America wholesale business has shown signs of stabilization, the Running category continues to grow, and the company retains a robust balance sheet with a dividend that has been raised for more than two decades. CEO Elliott Hill has also made personal open-market share purchases, a signal some investors interpret as confidence in the eventual turnaround.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge across several key dimensions. In business model terms, COLM is a focused, value-priced outdoor brand with a market capitalization under $3 billion, while NKE is a global sportswear behemoth with a market value roughly twenty times larger. Growth drivers also differ: COLM leans on international expansion, footwear momentum, and brand elevation, whereas NKE's recovery depends on rebuilding wholesale relationships, reigniting product innovation, and stabilizing China.
On recent momentum, COLM has been comparatively resilient, while NKE's downward trend remains firmly intact. Risk factors diverge too—COLM faces U.S. demand softness and tariff exposure, while NKE contends with structural market-share losses to fast-growing rivals, credit-rating pressure, and a longer path to profitability. Both companies maintain strong liquidity, but COLM's debt-free balance sheet offers a clearer margin of safety. In sentiment, analysts rate COLM a consensus Hold with a wide range of price targets, while NKE's consensus is Hold amid unusually bearish positioning and frequent downgrades.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative stability, and near-term catalysts, Tickeron's AI framework would more likely favor COLM over NKE in the current environment. COLM's cleaner balance sheet, firmer relative price action, growing international segment, and modest valuation suggest a more stable risk-reward profile. By contrast, NKE's persistent downtrend, contracting revenue guidance, and restructuring uncertainty present a more challenging setup despite the stock's deep-value appearance and higher yield. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: a sudden positive catalyst in China or an acceleration of NKE's turnaround could shift the balance, just as a further deterioration in COLM's U.S. business could weaken its case.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is COLM is a Hold and NKE is a StrongBuy.
COLM's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for COLM turned positive on October 14, 2026. Looking at past instances where COLM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 56 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on COLM as a result. In 55 of 97 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
COLM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for COLM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 22 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Following a +6.59% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where COLM advanced for three days, in 140 of 289 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 49 of 105 cases where COLM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 47%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for COLM moved out of overbought territory on October 16, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 24 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for COLM moved below the 200-day moving average on September 23, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where COLM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
COLM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. COLM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 62 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.984) is normal, around the industry mean (2.700). P/E Ratio (16.206) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.111). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.600) is also within normal values, averaging (0.686). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.120) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.889) is also within normal values, averaging (0.827).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. COLM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
NKE in +2.02% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on October 20, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where NKE advanced for three days, in 143 of 267 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NKE as a result. In 46 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NKE just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where NKE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 20 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
NKE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NKE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
NKE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for NKE entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NKE’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 64 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.745) is normal, around the industry mean (2.954). P/E Ratio (17.871) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.630). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.427) is also within normal values, averaging (0.949). NKE has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.044) as compared to the industry average of (0.022). P/S Ratio (1.142) is also within normal values, averaging (1.252).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NKE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock worse than average.
COLM | NKE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 6 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 62 Fair valued | 64 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 62 | 44 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 22 | 88 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
COLM's Valuation (62) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as NKE (64). This means that COLM’s stock grew similarly to NKE’s over the last 12 months.
COLM's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as NKE (100). This means that COLM’s stock grew similarly to NKE’s over the last 12 months.
NKE's SMR Rating (44) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as COLM (62). This means that NKE’s stock grew similarly to COLM’s over the last 12 months.
COLM's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as NKE (61). This means that COLM’s stock grew similarly to NKE’s over the last 12 months.
COLM's P/E Growth Rating (22) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is significantly better than the same rating for NKE (88). This means that COLM’s stock grew significantly faster than NKE’s over the last 12 months.
| COLM | NKE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 51% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 47% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 54% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 48% | 3 days ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 9 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 85% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 72% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COLM’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while NKE’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- COLM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NKE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COLM’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NKE’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COLM’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
- NKE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
COLM (@Apparel/Footwear) experienced а +2.06% price change this week, while NKE (@Wholesale Distributors) price change was +3.18% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Apparel/Footwear industry was +0.65%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.04%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3.78%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Wholesale Distributors industry was -3.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
COLM is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
NKE is expected to report earnings on Dec 17, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Apparel/Footwear (+0.65% weekly)Apparel/footwear might be slightly more ‘cyclical’ in the largely non-cyclical category of non-durables. While digital giants like Amazon have been rapidly expanding their presence, traditional clothing/footwear retailers have also been bulking up their online presence in recent years, to milk the burgeoning trend of online shopping among consumers across the globe. The apparel and footwear retail market was valued at around $ 360 billion in 2018, and this figure was expected to reach about $386 billion by 2020 (according to a Statista report). NIKE, Inc, V.F. Corporation and Under Armour, Inc. are some of the companies with the largest U.S. stock market caps in this segment.
@Wholesale Distributors (-3.86% weekly)Companies in this industry handle the wholesale shipments for the manufacturer of a product. They have warehouses and distribution centers, and they ship products directly to the retailer. Digitization, increasing competition, emerging customer demand, and product innovation are some of shifts that the industry has been facing in recent times – something that is potentially creating needs/opportunities for business model revisions or transformations. Data, analytics, and technology are becoming increasingly important for whole distributors in anticipating and analyzing consumer needs, and therefore planning their business strategies accordingly. Fastenal Company, W.W. Grainger, Inc., Genuine Parts Company and Pool Corporation are some of the largest names in the business.
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