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NKE vs UAA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Nike (NKE) vs. Under Armour (UAA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Nike (NKE) is executing a broad turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill, but fiscal 2027 guidance implies a high-single-digit revenue decline as it resets its direct-to-consumer strategy and Greater China business.
- Under Armour (UAA) is a smaller, higher-beta turnaround focused on SKU (stock-keeping unit) reduction, pricing discipline, and brand repositioning under founder Kevin Plank.
- Both stocks have traded well below their recent highs, yet NKE still generates meaningful profits and a dividend, while UAA is running an unprofitable transition.
- Scale and balance-sheet strength favor NKE; valuation and a fresh activist-style catalyst (Frasers Group's stake) introduce distinct dynamics for UAA.
- Relative performance and market positioning diverged recently, with NKE absorbing multiple downgrades while UAA holds near its mid-range after a volatile year.
Introduction
Nike, Inc. (NKE) and Under Armour, Inc. (UAA) are two of the most recognizable names in athletic apparel and footwear, yet they occupy very different positions in the current market cycle. This stock comparison examines their relative performance, growth drivers, and market positioning to help traders and investors evaluate two turnaround stories at different stages of maturity. Nike is a global industry leader resetting after years of strategic missteps, while Under Armour is a smaller brand attempting a fundamental repositioning. Both appeal to investors focused on consumer discretionary stocks, though their risk profiles, scale, and catalysts differ considerably.
NKE Overview and Recent Performance
Nike (NKE) is the world's largest sportswear company, with footwear, apparel, and equipment sold through wholesale, company-owned stores, and digital channels worldwide. In recent weeks, the stock has traded near multi-year lows after the company guided fiscal 2027 revenue to decline by a high-single-digit percentage and announced a restructuring plan called "Pace," which targets roughly $2.5 billion in cumulative savings through fiscal 2031 but involves about $1 billion in pre-tax charges.
Sentiment has been pressured by sustained weakness in Greater China, a shrinking Nike Direct digital business, and intense competition from brands such as On and Hoka. Credit agencies responded with a downgrade from S&P Global and a negative outlook from Moody's. Offsetting factors include a rebound in North America wholesale, a dividend yielding roughly 4.4% after 24 consecutive years of increases, and a strong early launch of the Caitlin Clark signature shoe. In relative performance terms, NKE has materially lagged the broader market recently, reflecting elevated execution risk in the company's "Win Now" turnaround.
UAA Overview and Recent Performance
Under Armour (UAA) is a Baltimore-based performance apparel, footwear, and accessories brand. Its fiscal 2026 revenue declined roughly 4% to about $4.97 billion, and the company reported a significant net loss as it works through a brand-first transformation under founder and CEO Kevin Plank. Recent market activity has been shaped by SKU reduction initiatives—cutting product assortment to focus on bestsellers—alongside pricing discipline and margin recovery.
In its most recent quarter, revenue fell again, with North America and Asia-Pacific weaker while EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) grew. Gross margin improved, partly helped by a tariff-refund benefit, and management has maintained its adjusted operating profit outlook despite trimming revenue expectations. A notable development was the disclosure that Frasers Group acquired an 8.8% stake, adding a new external investor catalyst. Analysts remain mixed, with ratings clustered around Hold and price targets implying upside from current levels. The stock has been volatile, trading within a wide range over the past year.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The sharpest contrast between these two stocks is scale. Nike generates tens of billions in annual revenue, retains pricing power, and pays a dividend, whereas Under Armour is roughly one-tenth Nike's size by revenue and is not currently profitable. Growth drivers also differ: Nike's opportunity lies in rebuilding wholesale relationships, stabilizing China, and reigniting product innovation, while Under Armour's thesis centers on assortment simplification, margin recovery, and brand premiumization.
On risk factors, NKE faces competition from fast-growing challengers and geographic concentration risk in China, while UAA contends with North America demand softness, promotional pressure, and a smaller financial cushion. Market sentiment has favored neither recently, though Nike's multi-year drawdown and credit-rating actions have made its path more visible to the market, whereas Under Armour's higher beta and thin float introduce sharper price swings. Investors weighing these names are essentially comparing a large, income-generating turnaround against a smaller, higher-risk repositioning.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative positioning, catalysts, and stability, Tickeron's AI would likely assign a modest preference to NKE over UAA in the current environment. Nike's larger scale, durable cash flow, and dividend provide a more stable foundation, and its turnaround has clearer, well-defined milestones. Under Armour's smaller market capitalization and unprofitable transition make its trend more volatile and less reliable for systematic models. That said, the AI verdict would remain probabilistic rather than definitive, acknowledging that Under Armour's valuation discount and the Frasers stake could generate sharper upside if its repositioning gains traction. Traders should weigh these differing risk-reward profiles against their own time horizon and objectives.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NKE is a StrongBuy and UAA is a StrongBuy.
NKE in +2.02% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on October 20, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where NKE advanced for three days, in 143 of 267 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NKE as a result. In 46 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NKE just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where NKE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 20 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
NKE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NKE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
NKE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for NKE entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NKE’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 64 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.745) is normal, around the industry mean (2.954). P/E Ratio (17.871) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.630). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.427) is also within normal values, averaging (0.949). NKE has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.044) as compared to the industry average of (0.022). P/S Ratio (1.142) is also within normal values, averaging (1.252).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NKE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock worse than average.
UAA's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UAA turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where UAA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where UAA's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 29 of 40 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 39 of 60 cases where UAA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UAA as a result. In 58 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +2.95% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UAA advanced for three days, in 187 of 280 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
UAA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UAA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
The Aroon Indicator for UAA entered a downward trend on October 08, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 39 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.405) is normal, around the industry mean (2.700). P/E Ratio (-4.061) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.111). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.083) is also within normal values, averaging (0.686). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.120) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.434) is also within normal values, averaging (0.827).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. UAA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UAA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
NKE | UAA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 6 | 12 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 64 Fair valued | 39 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 44 | 97 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 74 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 88 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UAA's Valuation (39) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as NKE (64). This means that UAA’s stock grew similarly to NKE’s over the last 12 months.
UAA's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as NKE (100). This means that UAA’s stock grew similarly to NKE’s over the last 12 months.
NKE's SMR Rating (44) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UAA (97). This means that NKE’s stock grew somewhat faster than UAA’s over the last 12 months.
NKE's Price Growth Rating (61) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as UAA (74). This means that NKE’s stock grew similarly to UAA’s over the last 12 months.
NKE's P/E Growth Rating (88) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as UAA (97). This means that NKE’s stock grew similarly to UAA’s over the last 12 months.
| NKE | UAA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 85% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 67% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 72% | 9 days ago 80% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 85% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 84% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NKE’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while UAA’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- NKE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- UAA’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NKE’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UAA’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NKE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UAA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
NKE (@Wholesale Distributors) experienced а +3.18% price change this week, while UAA (@Apparel/Footwear) price change was -2.51% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Wholesale Distributors industry was -3.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.10%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Apparel/Footwear industry was +0.83%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.89%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3.66%.
Reported Earning Dates
NKE is expected to report earnings on Dec 17, 2026.
UAA is expected to report earnings on Nov 06, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Wholesale Distributors (-3.86% weekly)Companies in this industry handle the wholesale shipments for the manufacturer of a product. They have warehouses and distribution centers, and they ship products directly to the retailer. Digitization, increasing competition, emerging customer demand, and product innovation are some of shifts that the industry has been facing in recent times – something that is potentially creating needs/opportunities for business model revisions or transformations. Data, analytics, and technology are becoming increasingly important for whole distributors in anticipating and analyzing consumer needs, and therefore planning their business strategies accordingly. Fastenal Company, W.W. Grainger, Inc., Genuine Parts Company and Pool Corporation are some of the largest names in the business.
@Apparel/Footwear (+0.83% weekly)Apparel/footwear might be slightly more ‘cyclical’ in the largely non-cyclical category of non-durables. While digital giants like Amazon have been rapidly expanding their presence, traditional clothing/footwear retailers have also been bulking up their online presence in recent years, to milk the burgeoning trend of online shopping among consumers across the globe. The apparel and footwear retail market was valued at around $ 360 billion in 2018, and this figure was expected to reach about $386 billion by 2020 (according to a Statista report). NIKE, Inc, V.F. Corporation and Under Armour, Inc. are some of the companies with the largest U.S. stock market caps in this segment.
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UAA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UAA has been closely correlated with UA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 99% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UAA jumps, then UA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UAA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAA | 100% | +4.50% | ||
| UA - UAA | 99% Closely correlated | +3.50% | ||
| COLM - UAA | 52% Loosely correlated | +4.30% | ||
| NKE - UAA | 51% Loosely correlated | +2.10% | ||
| LEVI - UAA | 49% Loosely correlated | +2.05% | ||
| SHOO - UAA | 46% Loosely correlated | -0.59% | ||
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