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NKE vs UAA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Nike (NKE) vs. Under Armour (UAA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NKE, the world's largest sportswear company, is navigating a deep multi-year turnaround marked by declining revenues, margin compression, and a stock price that has fallen roughly 39% over the past year.
- UAA is executing its own restructuring under returning founder-CEO Kevin Plank, focusing on brand premiumization and reduced promotional activity, yet revenue continues to contract.
- Both companies face significant headwinds from U.S. tariffs on imported goods, weak consumer spending in China, and intensifying competition from nimbler brands such as On Holding and Hoka.
- NKE offers a substantially larger market capitalization (~$65 billion vs. ~$2.6 billion) and a 3.75% dividend yield backed by 24 consecutive years of payout increases, providing an income component UAA does not.
- While NKE benefits from unmatched brand scale and pricing power, UAA has attracted notable value-oriented institutional interest, including a 16.1% stake from Fairfax Financial, suggesting some investors see deep undervaluation.
- Both stocks carry elevated turnaround risk, making this comparison especially relevant for patient, value-conscious investors evaluating contrasting risk-reward profiles in the consumer discretionary sector.
Introduction
In the competitive landscape of athletic apparel and footwear, two American-born brands stand at pivotal crossroads. NKE (Nike, Inc.) and UAA (Under Armour, Inc.) share common DNA — both built on performance-driven sportswear — yet their current market positioning, scale, and financial trajectories could hardly be more different. Nike, a $65 billion behemoth, is wrestling with one of the most challenging chapters in its corporate history, while Under Armour, a fraction of that size, fights to reclaim relevance after years of underperformance. This comparison examines both stocks through the lens of recent financial developments, market sentiment, and structural positioning, offering traders and investors a clear, fact-based framework for evaluating these two names side by side.
NKE Overview and Recent Performance
Nike, Inc., headquartered in Beaverton, Oregon, remains the undisputed global leader in sportswear, operating through the Nike, Jordan, and Converse brands. Despite its cultural dominance, the company has faced a difficult operating environment in recent quarters. Fiscal 2025 revenue contracted 10% year over year to $46.3 billion, while net income dropped 44%, reflecting an intentional pullback on key product franchises — including the Air Force 1 and Dunk lines — as well as heavy discounting to clear excess inventory. The company's "Win Now" strategy, led by returning CEO Elliott Hill, has prioritized restoring wholesale partnerships, rebalancing distribution away from an overreliance on direct-to-consumer digital channels, and reigniting product innovation through what management calls a "sport offense."
Recent quarterly results have shown tentative stabilization: fiscal 2026 second-quarter revenue edged up 1% to $12.4 billion, though earnings per share (EPS) fell 32% as gross margins dipped to 40.6%, pressured by elevated North American tariffs and promotional activity. The stock has reflected this uncertainty, trading near $43–$44 in mid-July 2026 — roughly 75% below its November 2021 all-time high of approximately $170. The market capitalization sits around $65 billion, with a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 21x. On the income side, Nike continues to return capital to shareholders, having raised its dividend for 24 consecutive years; the current yield exceeds 3.7%.
UAA Overview and Recent Performance
Under Armour, Inc., based in Baltimore, Maryland, is a significantly smaller competitor with a market capitalization of approximately $2.6 billion. Founded in 1996 by former University of Maryland football player Kevin Plank, the company built its brand on moisture-wicking performance apparel but has struggled to sustain growth in an increasingly crowded market. Plank returned as CEO in 2024 and immediately launched a restructuring plan — now estimated to cost up to $160 million — aimed at improving operational efficiency, tightening inventory, reducing promotional activity, and returning the brand to a premium positioning.
The financial picture remains challenging. Fiscal 2025 revenue declined 9% to $5.2 billion, and the company posted a net loss of $201 million. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, revenue fell another 5% year over year to $1.33 billion, though results modestly exceeded analyst expectations. North American revenue — still the company's largest segment — declined 8%, while the EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) region showed strength with 12% growth. Gross margins remain respectable at around 47%, but operating margins have been razor-thin or negative. Notably, Fairfax Financial Holdings, led by respected value investor Prem Watsa, has accumulated a 16.1% stake, signaling institutional conviction in a potential turnaround. UAA's stock has traded in the $4–$6 range in recent months, down roughly 40% year-to-date as of mid-2026.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Scale and Market Position: Nike's revenue base of over $46 billion dwarfs Under Armour's roughly $5 billion. Nike holds dominant market share across footwear and apparel globally, while Under Armour remains a niche challenger, particularly strong in North American performance apparel but with limited footwear traction. This scale differential gives Nike a durable competitive moat in athlete endorsements, marketing spend, and R&D (research and development) investment, yet also makes its turnaround inherently slower to execute.
Growth Drivers and Turnaround Status: Nike's recovery hinges on successfully rebalancing its distribution channels, reigniting product innovation, and stabilizing its critical China business, where sales have declined for seven consecutive quarters amid rising competition from domestic Chinese brands. Under Armour's path is narrower but potentially sharper — centered on brand premiumization, SKU (stock keeping unit) rationalization, and reduced reliance on discounting. Its EMEA segment has shown double-digit growth, providing a bright spot.
Risk Factors: Both companies are exposed to U.S. tariffs on imported goods, with a large portion of each company's production concentrated in China and Vietnam. Nike faces additional headwinds from an EEOC (Equal Employment Opportunity Commission) investigation, significant workforce reductions, and reputational challenges. Under Armour contends with a high debt load relative to its equity base, persistent operating losses, and the risk that its brand may have permanently lost mindshare to newer, faster-growing competitors.
Market Sentiment and Valuation: Nike trades at approximately 1.4x trailing sales and a forward P/E near 25x — inexpensive by its own historical standards but not conventionally cheap. Under Armour's valuation appears more distressed, with a price-to-sales ratio well below 1x and a market capitalization that some investors view as undervaluing the brand. However, value without catalysts can remain unrealized for extended periods.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable market data and trend characteristics, Tickeron's AI analytical framework would likely view neither stock as offering a clean bullish signal in the current environment. However, between the two, Nike's relative advantages — including a more stable revenue base, consistent dividend growth, stronger gross margin recovery potential, and deeper institutional liquidity — would probably give it the edge in a probabilistic model. Under Armour's greater volatility and smaller market cap may appeal to certain momentum-driven or deep-value AI strategies, but the lack of sustained positive earnings momentum introduces more noise. Ultimately, a trend-following AI might favor NKE for its emerging stabilization signals and income component, while acknowledging that both names require patience and a tolerance for elevated uncertainty.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NKE is a Hold and UAA is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NKE’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileUAA’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- NKE’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- UAA’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NKE’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UAA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NKE’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- UAA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
NKE (@Wholesale Distributors) experienced а +0.02% price change this week, while UAA (@Apparel/Footwear) price change was -5.41% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Wholesale Distributors industry was +11.87%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.91%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Apparel/Footwear industry was +0.41%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.39%, and the average quarterly price growth was +21.83%.
Reported Earning Dates
NKE is expected to report earnings on Sep 24, 2026.
UAA is expected to report earnings on Aug 07, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Wholesale Distributors (+11.87% weekly)Companies in this industry handle the wholesale shipments for the manufacturer of a product. They have warehouses and distribution centers, and they ship products directly to the retailer. Digitization, increasing competition, emerging customer demand, and product innovation are some of shifts that the industry has been facing in recent times – something that is potentially creating needs/opportunities for business model revisions or transformations. Data, analytics, and technology are becoming increasingly important for whole distributors in anticipating and analyzing consumer needs, and therefore planning their business strategies accordingly. Fastenal Company, W.W. Grainger, Inc., Genuine Parts Company and Pool Corporation are some of the largest names in the business.
@Apparel/Footwear (+0.41% weekly)Apparel/footwear might be slightly more ‘cyclical’ in the largely non-cyclical category of non-durables. While digital giants like Amazon have been rapidly expanding their presence, traditional clothing/footwear retailers have also been bulking up their online presence in recent years, to milk the burgeoning trend of online shopping among consumers across the globe. The apparel and footwear retail market was valued at around $ 360 billion in 2018, and this figure was expected to reach about $386 billion by 2020 (according to a Statista report). NIKE, Inc, V.F. Corporation and Under Armour, Inc. are some of the companies with the largest U.S. stock market caps in this segment.
| NKE | UAA | NKE / UAA | |
| Capitalization | 61.9B | 2.8B | 2,208% |
| EBITDA | 4.59B | 74.2M | 6,191% |
| Gain YTD | -33.507 | 33.803 | -99% |
| P/E Ratio | 19.86 | 20.95 | 95% |
| Revenue | 46.4B | 4.97B | 934% |
| Total Cash | 9.03B | 309M | 2,921% |
| Total Debt | 11B | 1.94B | 567% |
NKE | UAA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 15 | 92 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 10 Undervalued | 66 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 43 | 98 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 63 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 93 | 68 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 34 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NKE's Valuation (10) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UAA (66). This means that NKE’s stock grew somewhat faster than UAA’s over the last 12 months.
NKE's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as UAA (100). This means that NKE’s stock grew similarly to UAA’s over the last 12 months.
NKE's SMR Rating (43) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UAA (98). This means that NKE’s stock grew somewhat faster than UAA’s over the last 12 months.
UAA's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as NKE (63). This means that UAA’s stock grew similarly to NKE’s over the last 12 months.
UAA's P/E Growth Rating (68) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as NKE (93). This means that UAA’s stock grew similarly to NKE’s over the last 12 months.
| NKE | UAA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 82% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 81% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 54% | 6 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 78% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 79% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 71% |
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NKE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NKE has been loosely correlated with COLM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if NKE jumps, then COLM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NKE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKE | 100% | -1.37% | ||
| COLM - NKE | 56% Loosely correlated | -5.43% | ||
| UA - NKE | 53% Loosely correlated | -2.84% | ||
| LEVI - NKE | 52% Loosely correlated | -0.12% | ||
| UAA - NKE | 51% Loosely correlated | -2.64% | ||
| OXM - NKE | 50% Loosely correlated | -0.86% | ||
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UAA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UAA has been closely correlated with UA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 99% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UAA jumps, then UA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UAA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAA | 100% | -2.64% | ||
| UA - UAA | 99% Closely correlated | -2.84% | ||
| NKE - UAA | 51% Loosely correlated | -1.37% | ||
| COLM - UAA | 49% Loosely correlated | -5.43% | ||
| SHOO - UAA | 46% Loosely correlated | -3.66% | ||
| ONON - UAA | 45% Loosely correlated | -2.32% | ||
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