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NVDA vs TSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) vs. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NVDA and TSM both benefit from AI-driven demand for advanced semiconductors, with NVDA focusing on design and TSM on manufacturing.
- In recent market activity, NVDA has shown price volatility around the $200 level amid broader sector rotation, while TSM has traded near $400 with solid year-to-date gains.
- NVDA reported record fiscal 2026 revenue exceeding $215 billion, driven primarily by data center growth.
- TSM anticipates more than 30% revenue growth in 2026, supported by high-performance computing demand representing a majority of recent revenues.
- Business models differ significantly: NVDA captures higher margins through intellectual property, while TSM provides critical foundry capacity with geographic diversification efforts.
- Market sentiment for both remains tied to AI infrastructure spending, though relative performance has varied with NVDA lagging some chip peers in 2026.
Introduction
NVDA and TSM represent two pivotal players in the semiconductor ecosystem powering artificial intelligence advancements. NVIDIA Corporation designs graphics processing units and related technologies, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company serves as the leading contract manufacturer for advanced chips. Investors and traders seeking to understand relative performance, sector exposure, and positioning within the AI supply chain may find this comparison relevant. The analysis examines recent market behavior, business fundamentals, and observable trends without projecting future outcomes.
NVDA Overview and Recent Performance
NVIDIA Corporation develops and markets graphics processing units, systems-on-chips, and software platforms primarily for gaming, data centers, automotive, and professional visualization markets. In recent weeks, the stock has traded in a range near $200 following earlier peaks above $230, reflecting broader market adjustments in technology valuations. Fiscal 2026 results highlighted record full-year revenue of $215.9 billion, with data center revenue reaching $62.3 billion in the fourth quarter alone. Sentiment has been influenced by sustained demand for AI accelerators alongside sector-wide rotation toward other semiconductor names. Trading volumes have remained elevated during periods of price fluctuation.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company operates as the world’s largest dedicated independent semiconductor foundry, producing chips designed by other companies using advanced process nodes. In recent market activity, the stock has hovered near $400 after reaching highs above $470 earlier in the period, supported by consistent revenue expansion. The company expects more than 30% revenue growth for 2026, with high-performance computing contributing approximately 61% of first-quarter revenues. Performance has been shaped by ongoing demand for AI-related fabrication capacity and progress on geographic expansion, including increased investment in U.S. facilities. Investor attention has focused on execution of capacity plans amid global supply considerations.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
NVDA operates an asset-light model centered on chip design and ecosystem development, enabling higher gross margins but greater exposure to demand cyclicality in end markets. TSM functions as a capital-intensive foundry with manufacturing scale advantages, offering more stable production revenue while facing higher capital expenditure requirements. Recent momentum has seen TSM deliver steadier year-to-date price appreciation compared with NVDA’s more pronounced fluctuations. Risk factors include NVDA’s concentration in AI-specific products and TSM’s reliance on Taiwan-based operations alongside ongoing U.S. expansion. Both maintain significant sector exposure to artificial intelligence infrastructure, though TSM benefits indirectly as the primary fabricator for many NVDA designs. Market sentiment reflects shared tailwinds from AI spending tempered by valuation considerations across the semiconductor group.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency in recent trading, stability of reported fundamentals, and positioning within supply-chain catalysts, Tickeron’s AI systems would currently assign a modestly higher probability of favorable relative performance to TSM. This assessment draws from broader data patterns without constituting a definitive forecast or recommendation.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NVDA is a Hold and TSM is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NVDA’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileTSM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- NVDA’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NVDA’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TSM’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NVDA’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
NVDA (@Semiconductors) experienced а +0.66% price change this week, while TSM (@Semiconductors) price change was +1.43% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +3.43%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -12.52%, and the average quarterly price growth was +46.60%.
Reported Earning Dates
NVDA is expected to report earnings on Aug 26, 2026.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Oct 15, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+3.43% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| NVDA | TSM | NVDA / TSM | |
| Capitalization | 5.06T | 1.92T | 263% |
| EBITDA | 193B | 2.99T | 6% |
| Gain YTD | 12.077 | 38.160 | 32% |
| P/E Ratio | 31.97 | 36.54 | 87% |
| Revenue | 253B | 4.1T | 6% |
| Total Cash | 80.6B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 12.3B | N/A | - |
NVDA | TSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 13 | 53 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 80 Overvalued | 65 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 5 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 11 | 27 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 31 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 89 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TSM's Valuation (65) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NVDA (80). This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NVDA (7). This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's SMR Rating (11) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (27). This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Price Growth Rating (31) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (42). This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's P/E Growth Rating (25) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NVDA (89). This means that TSM’s stock grew somewhat faster than NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
| NVDA | TSM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 84% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 75% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 69% | 1 day ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 74% |
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NVDA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVDA has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVDA jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NVDA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 100% | -1.56% | ||
| LRCX - NVDA | 70% Closely correlated | +0.15% | ||
| KLAC - NVDA | 69% Closely correlated | +1.88% | ||
| AMAT - NVDA | 66% Closely correlated | +1.60% | ||
| AMKR - NVDA | 63% Loosely correlated | -2.45% | ||
| CAMT - NVDA | 63% Loosely correlated | -1.02% | ||
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TSM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSM has been closely correlated with ASML. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSM jumps, then ASML could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 100% | -1.34% | ||
| ASML - TSM | 74% Closely correlated | +0.06% | ||
| LRCX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | +0.15% | ||
| KLAC - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +1.88% | ||
| AMAT - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +1.60% | ||
| CAMT - TSM | 66% Closely correlated | -1.02% | ||
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