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NVDA vs TSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) vs. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Two layers of the same trade: NVDA designs the AI accelerators; TSM manufactures the advanced chips they run on.
- Valuation has converged: both names trade near 27 times trailing earnings, despite very different business models.
- Growth profile differs: NVDA is growing revenue at a triple-digit clip, while TSM is expanding more moderately at roughly 40% year over year.
- Margins tell a story: NVDA posts net margins above 60%, while TSM's gross margin is compressing near-term as it ramps 2-nanometer capacity.
- Sentiment has cooled: both stocks pulled back in recent weeks amid broader AI-sector selling and higher-rate concerns, despite strong fundamentals.
Introduction
Investors tracking the artificial intelligence boom frequently compare NVDA and TSM because they occupy adjacent—and deeply intertwined—positions in the semiconductor supply chain. One designs the chips; the other builds them. This stock comparison is relevant for traders seeking relative performance signals within the sector, as well as for longer-term investors weighing growth-versus-stability trade-offs in their market positioning. Although the two companies are partners rather than direct competitors, their share prices respond to overlapping catalysts, making a side-by-side review a useful way to understand how AI-related demand is being priced across the value chain.
NVDA Overview and Recent Performance
NVIDIA Corporation designs graphics processing units (GPUs) and accelerated-computing platforms that power data centers, gaming, and automotive systems. It has become the primary supplier of AI accelerators, with its Blackwell and Vera Rubin architectures underpinning much of the current buildout of AI infrastructure. In its most recent reported quarter, NVDA delivered revenue of approximately $96 billion, up more than 100% year over year, with a net margin above 60% and a market capitalization near $5.2 trillion.
Recent market activity has been mixed. The stock gained on strong demand signals and an expanded share-repurchase authorization, yet pulled back in recent weeks as rising yields and broader semiconductor-sector selling weighed on high-multiple technology names. Investor attention has also focused on risks to NVIDIA's software moat, as hyperscale customers increasingly pursue custom silicon, and on insider selling activity near record valuations. These crosscurrents have kept sentiment constructive but more cautious than earlier in the year.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is the world's largest dedicated semiconductor foundry, fabricating chips for customers that design their own processors, including NVIDIA, Apple, and AMD. TSM reported its sixth consecutive record profit in its most recent quarter, with revenue of roughly $46.7 billion—up 41% year over year—and net income rising nearly 69%. High-performance computing (HPC) now represents about 68% of total revenue.
Despite the strength, the stock has softened in recent weeks. The decline reflects sector-wide selling and concern over near-term margin pressure from the ramp-up of 2-nanometer (2nm) production and higher-cost overseas fabs, which pushed gross margin slightly lower sequentially. Management has maintained a capital-expenditure (capex) budget of $60 billion to $64 billion for the year while signaling that 2027 spending will rise further, framing the margin dip as an investment ahead of future capacity. These factors leave TSM's fundamental story intact but its near-term sentiment more measured.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two companies is structural. NVDA is a fabless designer with a software ecosystem (CUDA) that supports strong pricing power and exceptional margins, but it carries higher beta—reflecting greater sensitivity to sentiment shifts around AI demand. TSM operates a capital-intensive foundry model with lower relative volatility and a more diversified customer base, but thinner margins and exposure to geographic concentration risk in Taiwan.
On growth, NVDA's revenue is accelerating faster, while TSM offers steadier, broad-based expansion across HPC, smartphones, and other segments. On risk, NVDA faces emerging competitive threats from custom silicon and customer-financing concerns; TSM faces margin dilution from new process nodes and overseas expansion. Notably, despite these differences, the two stocks now trade at nearly identical trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples, a convergence that highlights how thoroughly AI enthusiasm has been priced across the sector.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward TSM for relative stability at this juncture. Its trend has been underpinned by consistent, record-level earnings beats, diversified end-market demand, and a lower beta profile that tends to hold up better during sector-wide drawdowns. While NVDA offers superior growth and margin quality, its higher volatility and emerging competitive overhangs introduce greater near-term uncertainty. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: the two names remain complementary exposures, and the more favorable candidate can shift as momentum, catalysts, and market conditions evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NVDA is a Buy and TSM is a Buy.
NVDA's Stochastic Oscillator slumps into oversold zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for NVDA moved into oversold territory on October 30, 2026. Be on the watch for the price uptrend or consolidation in the future. At that time, consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +3.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVDA advanced for three days, in 295 of 355 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
NVDA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 280 of 334 cases where NVDA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 84%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for NVDA moved out of overbought territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 30 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 68%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NVDA as a result. In 58 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NVDA turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 72%.
NVDA moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NVDA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVDA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NVDA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NVDA's P/B Ratio (21.580) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (6.106). P/E Ratio (25.741) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.186). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.478) is also within normal values, averaging (3.803). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (17.212) is also within normal values, averaging (46.468).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
TSM in +3.57% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on October 28, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where TSM advanced for three days, in 236 of 317 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TSM's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 201 of 276 cases where TSM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 40 of 67 cases where TSM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TSM as a result. In 55 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TSM turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 61%.
TSM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TSM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TSM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
TSM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 42 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.327) is normal, around the industry mean (6.106). P/E Ratio (0.950) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.186). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.859) is also within normal values, averaging (3.803). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (15.480) is also within normal values, averaging (46.468).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TSM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
NVDA | TSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 80 Overvalued | 42 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 6 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 13 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 53 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 91 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TSM's Valuation (42) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NVDA (80). This means that TSM’s stock grew somewhat faster than NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (8). This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's SMR Rating (13) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (26). This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Price Growth Rating (53) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NVDA (57). This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's P/E Growth Rating (91) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (97). This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
| NVDA | TSM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 83% | 5 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 66% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 84% | 3 days ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NVDA’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while TSM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- NVDA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NVDA’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TSM’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NVDA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
Price Growth
NVDA (@Semiconductors) experienced а -3.00% price change this week, while TSM (@Semiconductors) price change was -2.96% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -0.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -18.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was -16.09%.
Reported Earning Dates
NVDA is expected to report earnings on Nov 17, 2026.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Jan 21, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (-0.34% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
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TSM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSM has been closely correlated with ASML. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSM jumps, then ASML could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 100% | -5.95% | ||
| ASML - TSM | 74% Closely correlated | -6.55% | ||
| LRCX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | -6.01% | ||
| KLAC - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | -5.69% | ||
| AMAT - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | -7.49% | ||
| ASX - TSM | 70% Closely correlated | -11.34% | ||
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