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NVDL vs NVDX
Which ETF would AI Choose? GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL) vs. T-Rex 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF (NVDX)
Key Takeaways
- Both NVDL and NVDX are single-stock leveraged ETFs (exchange-traded funds) seeking 2x (200%) the daily return of NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation), before fees and expenses.
- The two funds carry identical net expense ratios of 1.05%, making cost a non-differentiator in this ETF comparison.
- NVDL is substantially larger and more liquid, with assets under management (AUM) measured in the billions of dollars versus roughly $450 million for NVDX.
- Both are non-diversified and use swap agreements to obtain leveraged exposure, concentrating risk in a single issuer and a small number of counterparties.
- Daily reset mechanics mean both funds are designed for short-term tactical positioning and can diverge sharply from 2x underlying returns over multi-day holding periods due to compounding and volatility decay.
Introduction
Investors seeking amplified exposure to the artificial intelligence and semiconductor boom increasingly turn to single-stock leveraged ETFs. NVDL and NVDX do not compete as distinct strategies so much as they offer near-identical objectives: 2x daily leveraged exposure to NVDA. Because both funds pursue the same daily outcome, their differences lie in issuer, size, liquidity, and operational structure rather than investment philosophy. For traders and investors weighing relative positioning, understanding these structural nuances matters more than headline returns.
GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL) Overview
NVDL, issued by GraniteShares, seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, equal to 2 times (200%) the daily percentage change in the common stock of NVIDIA Corporation. Launched in December 2022, it is an actively managed, non-diversified ETF that primarily obtains its notional exposure through swap agreements and options, supplemented by direct holdings of the underlying stock and cash equivalents.
The fund typically reports holdings numbering in the dozens, but they are overwhelmingly NVDA equity swaps plus cash; its effective exposure is concentrated in a single issuer, so sector allocation is effectively 100% technology/semiconductors. The net expense ratio is 1.05%. With AUM in the multi-billion-dollar range and high average daily trading volume, NVDL offers comparatively deep liquidity and tight bid-ask spreads, making it a widely used vehicle for tactical leveraged exposure.
T-Rex 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF (NVDX) Overview
NVDX, issued by REX Shares in partnership with Tuttle Capital Management under the "T-Rex" brand, likewise seeks daily investment results of 200% of the daily performance of NVDA. Launched in October 2023, it is a non-diversified, actively managed ETF that, under normal circumstances, invests at least 80% of its net assets in financial instruments designed to deliver 2x daily exposure, primarily through swap agreements.
The fund maintains a lean portfolio, often reporting only a handful of holdings consisting of swaps, cash, and other short-term assets. Its net expense ratio is also 1.05%. With AUM of roughly $450 million and lower average daily volume than its larger peer, NVDX may exhibit wider spreads and lower depth, though it remains liquid enough for most short-term trading needs. Its sector exposure is effectively fully concentrated in NVDA and the semiconductor industry.
Industry and Thematic Backdrop
Both funds are expressions of a single powerful theme: the rapid buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure and the resulting demand for advanced graphics processing units (GPUs) and accelerated-computing systems. NVDA sits at the center of this cycle, with revenue growth tied to hyperscaler capital expenditures, data-center expansion, and enterprise AI adoption. In recent market cycles, sentiment has been shaped by supply-chain constraints, export-control developments affecting advanced chips, and the pace of cloud providers' spending commitments. These catalysts create elevated single-stock volatility, which in turn amplifies both the upside and the compounding risk embedded in leveraged funds. Investors in either ETF are therefore exposed not just to NVDA's fundamentals but to the sector's regulatory and cyclical sensitivity.
Performance and Positioning Comparison
Because both funds track the same underlying at the same 2x daily multiple and charge the same 1.05% fee, their recent performance has tracked each other closely over short windows, with any divergence driven primarily by fund size, execution efficiency, and slight differences in swap counterparties and cash management. Over recent weeks and months, both have mirrored the strong but choppy performance of NVDA, with volatility elevated relative to the broad market.
The more meaningful distinction is structural. NVDL's larger asset base and deeper volume support tighter execution and lower transaction costs for institutional traders, while NVDX is a newer, smaller entrant. Both share the same core risk: daily rebalancing and compounding mean that during periods of high volatility, even a flat or modestly rising NVDA can produce losses over holding periods longer than a single day. Relative positioning, therefore, hinges less on one fund outperforming the other than on selecting the vehicle with appropriate liquidity for the intended trade size.
AI Screener
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable structural factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor NVDL at present. The two funds are functionally equivalent in objective, leverage, and cost, but NVDL's substantially larger AUM, deeper liquidity, longer track record, and tighter bid-ask spreads offer a marginal advantage in execution and risk management. Both remain high-risk, short-horizon instruments whose daily reset makes them unsuitable for long-term buy-and-hold positioning. Investors should treat any preference as probabilistic and dependent on trade size, holding period, and volatility expectations rather than as a definitive recommendation.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NVDL is a Hold and NVDX is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for NVDL turns negative, indicating new downward trend
NVDL saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 58 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 53 of the 58 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NVDL turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 38 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
NVDL moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NVDL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVDL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
The Aroon Indicator for NVDL entered a downward trend on November 04, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NVDL's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 11 of 11 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +6.50% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVDL advanced for three days, in 276 of 281 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
NVDL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Momentum Indicator for NVDX turns negative, indicating new downward trend
NVDX saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 43 of the 45 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NVDX turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 30 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
NVDX moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NVDX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 8 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVDX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator for NVDX entered a downward trend on November 04, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NVDX's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 7 of 7 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +6.51% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVDX advanced for three days, in 200 of 205 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
NVDX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
| NVDL | NVDX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 90% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 90% | 10 days ago 90% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 86% | 4 days ago 90% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
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NVDX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor tells us that NVDX and NVDA have been poorly correlated (+-7% of the time) for the last year. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is low statistical probability that NVDX and NVDA's prices will move in lockstep.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NVDX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDX | 100% | -6.17% | ||
| NVDA - NVDX | -7% Poorly correlated | -3.17% |
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