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PM vs TPB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) vs. Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PM boasts a market capitalization of approximately $248 billion, dwarfing TPB's $1.6 billion, offering greater scale and liquidity.
- PM's dividend yield stands at 3.61%, significantly higher than TPB's 0.36%, appealing to income-focused investors.
- Recent market activity shows both stocks experiencing pullbacks, with PM down about 4% and TPB down around 3% over the past month, amid regulatory concerns in the nicotine space.
- PM exhibits lower volatility with a beta of 0.45 (a measure of stock volatility relative to the market), compared to TPB's beta of 1.03, making PM more defensive.
- Year-to-date (YTD), PM has remained relatively flat at around -1% to +0.2%, while TPB has declined about 22%, highlighting PM's relative stability.
- Both companies face FDA scrutiny on nicotine products, but PM's global diversification provides a buffer against U.S.-centric risks affecting TPB.
Introduction
This stock comparison pits PM, a global leader in cigarettes and smoke-free products, against TPB, a niche player in alternative smoking accessories and modern oral nicotine. Both operate in the resilient tobacco sector, navigating regulatory pressures and shifts toward reduced-risk products. Investors seeking defensive income with stability or higher-growth exposure in consumer staples may find value in analyzing their relative performance, valuations, and market positioning in the current environment of heightened volatility and sector scrutiny.
PM Overview and Recent Performance
Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is a multinational tobacco giant, primarily selling cigarettes like Marlboro alongside smoke-free offerings such as IQOS heat-not-burn devices and ZYN nicotine pouches. With a market cap near $248 billion and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.95, PM trades around $158 recently. In recent weeks, the stock has pulled back about 4%, influenced by FDA delays in reviewing nicotine pouch applications and broader regulatory sentiment on smoke-free transitions. Despite this, PM's low beta of 0.45 underscores its defensive nature, supported by a robust 3.61% dividend yield and upcoming Q1 earnings expected to show revenue growth. Positive developments include expansions in the U.S. and partnerships like with Ferrari, bolstering long-term smoke-free catalysts.
TPB Overview and Recent Performance
Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) focuses on branded consumer products, including rolling papers, pipes, and Stoker's modern oral nicotine pouches, targeting the U.S. alternative smoking market. Its market cap is about $1.6 billion, with a higher P/E ratio of 27.18 reflecting growth expectations, and shares trading near $84. Recent market activity has seen volatility, with a roughly 3% monthly decline and YTD drop of 22%, driven by sharp weekly pullbacks amid FDA nicotine pouch delays and mixed trading sessions. New partnerships with TKO Group and UFC for pouch promotions have sparked optimism, but higher beta of 1.03 exposes TPB to broader market swings. A modest 0.36% dividend yield trails larger peers, though strong cash flows support its niche positioning.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
In business models, PM's global scale and diversified portfolio contrast TPB's U.S.-focused niche in accessories and pouches, exposing TPB to domestic regulatory risks. Growth drivers differ: PM advances smoke-free transitions amid declining cigarettes, while TPB leverages oral nicotine expansion. Recent momentum shows pullbacks for both due to FDA hurdles, but PM's stability shines versus TPB's volatility. Risk factors include regulatory overhang for nicotine products, with PM's lower beta offering trade-offs for income over TPB's potential upside. Sector exposure ties both to tobacco's defensiveness, yet market sentiment favors PM's proven dividend consistency amid economic uncertainty, while TPB appeals for higher-growth speculation in alternatives.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward PM over TPB, citing superior trend consistency, lower volatility (beta 0.45), attractive dividend yield, and robust market positioning amid regulatory challenges. PM's scale and upcoming catalysts position it probabilistically better for relative outperformance in defensive rotations, though TPB's partnerships warrant monitoring for momentum shifts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PM is a StrongBuy and TPB is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PM’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileTPB’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- PM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TPB’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PM’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TPB’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TPB’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
PM (@Tobacco) experienced а +3.37% price change this week, while TPB (@Tobacco) price change was -4.62% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was -1.82%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -11.76%, and the average quarterly price growth was -11.89%.
Reported Earning Dates
PM is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
TPB is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Tobacco (-1.82% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
| PM | TPB | PM / TPB | |
| Capitalization | 287B | 1.6B | 17,949% |
| EBITDA | 17.9B | 111M | 16,126% |
| Gain YTD | 15.926 | -23.776 | -67% |
| P/E Ratio | 25.95 | 28.27 | 92% |
| Revenue | 41.5B | 481M | 8,628% |
| Total Cash | 5.45B | 192M | 2,839% |
| Total Debt | 51.9B | 310M | 16,742% |
PM | TPB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 79 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 19 Undervalued | 69 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 68 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 3 | 46 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 62 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 51 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 17 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PM's Valuation (19) in the Tobacco industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TPB (69). This means that PM’s stock grew somewhat faster than TPB’s over the last 12 months.
PM's Profit vs Risk Rating (12) in the Tobacco industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TPB (68). This means that PM’s stock grew somewhat faster than TPB’s over the last 12 months.
PM's SMR Rating (3) in the Tobacco industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TPB (46). This means that PM’s stock grew somewhat faster than TPB’s over the last 12 months.
PM's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as TPB (62). This means that PM’s stock grew similarly to TPB’s over the last 12 months.
TPB's P/E Growth Rating (51) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PM (62). This means that TPB’s stock grew similarly to PM’s over the last 12 months.
| PM | TPB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 4 days ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 45% | 3 days ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 49% | 3 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 67% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 52% | 3 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 48% | 5 days ago 65% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 80% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | N/A |
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TPB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TPB has been loosely correlated with PM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 39% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TPB jumps, then PM could also see price increases.