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QCML vs SOXL
Which ETF would AI Choose? GraniteShares 2x Long QCOM Daily ETF (QCML) vs. Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL)
Key Takeaways
- Different leverage and scope: QCML delivers 2x (200%) daily exposure to a single stock, QCOM (Qualcomm), while SOXL delivers 3x (300%) daily exposure to an entire 30-stock semiconductor index.
- Concentration versus diversification: QCML is a single-name bet on Qualcomm; SOXL spreads risk across leading U.S.-listed chipmakers including NVDA and AMD.
- Cost structure: QCML carries a higher 1.50% net expense ratio, versus SOXL's 0.75% net expense ratio.
- Scale and maturity: SOXL is a mature, heavily traded fund with tens of billions in assets, while QCML is a newer, smaller single-stock product launched in 2025.
- Both are short-term trading tools: Daily-reset leverage in each fund can cause returns to drift from the underlying over holding periods longer than one day, especially in volatile markets.
Introduction
Leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have become a popular way for active traders to express directional views without using margin. QCML and SOXL both fall into this category, yet they represent fundamentally different bets. QCML magnifies the daily move of one semiconductor company, while SOXL magnifies the daily move of a broad basket of chipmakers. Comparing them offers a useful lens on single-stock versus sector-level leverage, and on how concentration, cost, and daily-reset mechanics shape risk and relative positioning. They do not compete directly; instead, they sit at opposite ends of the semiconductor leverage spectrum.
GraniteShares 2x Long QCOM Daily ETF (QCML) Overview
QCML, the GraniteShares 2x Long QCOM Daily ETF, is an actively managed, single-stock leveraged fund that seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, equal to 200% (2x) of the daily percentage change in the common stock of QCOM (Qualcomm). Rather than holding a diversified portfolio, the fund obtains its exposure primarily through swap agreements referencing Qualcomm, collateralized with U.S. Treasury securities and cash. It is classified as non-diversified and is designed strictly as a short-term tactical vehicle.
The fund effectively carries roughly 200% notional swap exposure to a single issuer, with cash and Treasury collateral making up the remainder of the portfolio. Its net expense ratio is 1.50%, reflecting the higher operational and financing costs typical of single-stock leveraged products. QCML launched in February 2025 and remains comparatively small, with assets in the tens of millions of dollars and modest trading volume relative to larger leveraged ETFs. Because its entire outcome depends on one company's earnings, licensing and smartphone demand cycles, and royalty disputes, its volatility is extremely high.
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL) Overview
SOXL, the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares, is a leveraged ETF that seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, equal to 300% (3x) of the daily performance of the ICE Semiconductor Index. That index is a rules-based, modified float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted benchmark tracking the 30 largest U.S.-listed semiconductor companies. The fund achieves its leverage mainly through swap agreements and is non-diversified.
Unlike QCML's single-name profile, SOXL spreads exposure across the semiconductor value chain. Its largest underlying positions typically include NVDA (NVIDIA), AMD (Advanced Micro Devices), MU (Micron Technology), AVGO (Broadcom), INTC (Intel), MRVL (Marvell Technology), TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's American Depositary Receipt, or ADR), AMAT (Applied Materials), KLAC (KLA), and LRCX (Lam Research). SOXL carries a 0.75% net expense ratio, launched in 2010, and manages assets in the tens of billions of dollars with deep daily liquidity. Its three-times leverage and sector concentration make it one of the most volatile widely traded ETFs.
Industry and Thematic Backdrop
Both funds sit squarely within the semiconductor complex, a sector driven by artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure demand, data-center capital spending, memory pricing cycles, and the rollout of advanced chips for smartphones and PCs. Broader macro forces, including interest-rate expectations and global trade and export-control policy, influence chip valuations and capital flows. SOXL captures this theme across the entire industry, while QCML isolates it to Qualcomm's specific mix of handset chipsets, licensing revenue, and emerging exposure to automotive and edge-AI processors. In recent market cycles, sector rotation into AI beneficiaries has favored the diversified semiconductor basket, though single names such as Qualcomm can diverge sharply on company-specific news such as licensing rulings or handset demand revisions.
Performance and Positioning Comparison
Over recent weeks and months, SOXL's performance has been driven by broad semiconductor momentum, particularly around AI-related capital expenditure and memory upcycles affecting its largest constituents. QCML's fund performance, by contrast, has tracked the narrower narrative around Qualcomm's fundamentals. Structurally, SOXL's higher 3x leverage and 30-stock base produce extreme volatility with a beta far above the broader market, while QCML's 2x single-stock leverage produces volatility concentrated in one issuer's idiosyncratic risk. The daily reset inherent in both funds means their multi-week returns can differ meaningfully from a simple multiple of their underlying, a key consideration for relative positioning. SOXL offers materially greater diversification and liquidity, whereas QCML offers a more precise but less diversified expression of a single-company view.
AI Screener
Tickeron's AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market using technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs with customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. Explore the AI Screener to streamline your research and surface high-conviction setups across sectors.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable structural factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor SOXL in the current environment. Its broader 30-stock diversification reduces single-name risk relative to QCML, its 0.75% expense ratio is more cost-efficient than QCML's 1.50%, and its deep liquidity and sector-level trend exposure align with sustained semiconductor momentum. QCML's concentrated, single-issuer profile carries higher idiosyncratic risk and a higher fee, making it more suitable only for traders with a specific, short-horizon conviction in Qualcomm. Both remain high-risk, daily-reset instruments best suited to short-term tactical use rather than long-term holding.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is QCML is a Buy and SOXL is a Hold.
QCML's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for QCML turned positive on November 11, 2026. Looking at past instances where QCML's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 12 of 13 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 18 of 21 cases where QCML's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Following a +5.75% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QCML advanced for three days, in 95 of 103 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
QCML may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on QCML as a result. In 21 of 23 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
QCML moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for QCML crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 5 of 5 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QCML declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator for QCML entered a downward trend on November 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
SOXL sees its 50-day moving average cross bearishly below its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for SOXL moved below the 200-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SOXL as a result. In 72 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SOXL turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 45 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 88%.
SOXL moved below its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SOXL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SOXL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator for SOXL entered a downward trend on November 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SOXL's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 25 of 25 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +37.51% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SOXL advanced for three days, in 317 of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
SOXL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
| QCML | SOXL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 3 days ago 89% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 2 days ago 88% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 90% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 3 days ago 90% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 90% | 7 days ago 90% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 88% | 1 day ago 90% |
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SOXL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SOXL has been closely correlated with ASX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SOXL jumps, then ASX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SOXL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOXL | 100% | +17.78% | ||
| ASX - SOXL | 85% Closely correlated | +6.60% | ||
| TSM - SOXL | 83% Closely correlated | +4.25% | ||
| MKSI - SOXL | 82% Closely correlated | +5.87% | ||
| ONTO - SOXL | 82% Closely correlated | +8.89% | ||
| STM - SOXL | 78% Closely correlated | +3.49% | ||
More | ||||
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