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RDW vs SATL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Redwire Corporation (RDW) vs. Satellogic Inc. (SATL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both RDW and SATL operate in the burgeoning space sector, with RDW focusing on infrastructure and defense tech, while SATL specializes in earth observation satellites.
- SATL has delivered explosive year-to-date (YTD) gains of over 273%, far outpacing RDW's solid 35% rise, highlighting stronger short-term momentum.
- RDW boasts a larger market cap of $2.03 billion and higher trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue of $335 million compared to SATL's $958 million cap and $18 million revenue.
- Recent contracts bolster RDW, including ESA quantum-secure satellite deals and $20 million defense orders, signaling defense growth.
- SATL shows robust quarterly revenue growth of 94% in Q4 2025, driven by U.S. government contracts and new satellite deployments.
- RDW exhibits higher volatility (beta 2.51) versus SATL's 0.99, appealing to different risk appetites in space investments.
Introduction
In the rapidly expanding space economy, RDW and SATL represent distinct approaches to capitalizing on satellite technology and infrastructure demand. Redwire Corporation delivers comprehensive space solutions for government and commercial clients, while Satellogic Inc. provides high-resolution earth observation data. This stock comparison analyzes their recent market performance, business drivers, and positioning amid heightened sector interest from events like potential SpaceX developments. Traders seeking momentum plays and investors eyeing long-term space growth will find value in evaluating their relative strengths in today's volatile environment.
RDW Overview and Recent Performance
Redwire Corporation (RDW), headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida, specializes in space infrastructure, including sensors, avionics, and digital engineering tools for U.S. government agencies, allies, and commercial customers. Trading around $10.21 with a $2.03 billion market cap, the stock has climbed 35% YTD and 10% over the past year, within a 52-week range of $4.87 to $22.25. Recent market activity reflects steady gains, influenced by defense contract wins such as a $20 million U.S. Navy and Marine Corps order for unmanned systems and an ESA quantum-secure satellite agreement for the QKDSat program. Quarterly revenue surged 56% year-over-year to $109 million in Q4 2025, supporting positive sentiment despite ongoing losses (TTM EPS -$2.28). Heightened space economy buzz has further buoyed shares.
SATL Overview and Recent Performance
Satellogic Inc. (SATL), based in Davidson, North Carolina, is a vertically integrated provider of earth observation satellites and geospatial analytics for governments and enterprises worldwide. Shares trade near $6.70, with a $958 million market cap, posting explosive YTD gains exceeding 273% and 107% over one year, in a 52-week range of $1.25 to $8.02. Recent weeks have seen upward momentum, fueled by Q4 2025 revenue jumping 94% to $6.2 million and full-year growth of 38%, alongside introductions like the AI-first Merlin constellation. Though unprofitable (TTM EPS -$0.18), expanding U.S. government contracts and satellite launches have shifted sentiment positively in the high-growth earth observation niche.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
RDW and SATL both thrive in space tech but diverge in focus: RDW's diversified model spans infrastructure and defense (e.g., UAS, optics), contrasting SATL's niche in geospatial data and satellite-as-a-service. Growth drivers favor SATL's 94% quarterly revenue surge versus RDW's 56%, though from a smaller base. Recent momentum tilts to SATL with triple-digit YTD returns, while RDW offers scale. Risks include RDW's elevated beta (2.51, a measure of volatility relative to the market) versus SATL's steadier 0.99, with both exposed to government contract dependency. Market sentiment rides space sector tailwinds, but SATL trades at steeper valuations (P/S 51 vs. 3.6).
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward SATL for its superior momentum, with 273% YTD gains and accelerating revenue growth signaling stronger short-term trend consistency and catalysts in earth observation demand. While RDW provides stability through contracts and scale, SATL's relative positioning offers higher probability of outperformance in the near term amid space hype.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is RDW is a Hold and SATL is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
RDW’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileSATL’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- RDW’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SATL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
RDW’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SATL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- RDW’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- SATL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
RDW (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -12.20% price change this week, while SATL (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -15.17% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was -3.54%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.48%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.68%.
Reported Earning Dates
RDW is expected to report earnings on Aug 12, 2026.
SATL is expected to report earnings on Sep 17, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (-3.54% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| RDW | SATL | RDW / SATL | |
| Capitalization | 2.59B | 841M | 308% |
| EBITDA | -244.88M | -84.05M | 291% |
| Gain YTD | 71.316 | 203.476 | 35% |
| P/E Ratio | N/A | N/A | - |
| Revenue | 371M | 20.4M | 1,819% |
| Total Cash | 145M | 122M | 119% |
| Total Debt | 132M | 150M | 88% |
| RDW | SATL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 88% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 89% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 87% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 87% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 27 days ago 86% | 29 days ago 83% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 85% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 87% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| FCTR | 40.77 | 0.28 | +0.70% |
| First Trust Lunt US Factor Rotation ETF | |||
| EPIN | 28.52 | 0.03 | +0.10% |
| Harbor International Equity ETF | |||
| QDF | 89.27 | -0.07 | -0.08% |
| FlexShares Quality Dividend ETF | |||
| NDAA | 23.89 | -0.08 | -0.34% |
| Ned Davis Research 360 Dyn Allc ETF | |||
| EWM | 27.06 | -0.46 | -1.67% |
| iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF | |||
RDW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RDW has been loosely correlated with LUNR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if RDW jumps, then LUNR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To RDW | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDW | 100% | -9.27% | ||
| LUNR - RDW | 62% Loosely correlated | -3.76% | ||
| RKLB - RDW | 62% Loosely correlated | -6.48% | ||
| VOYG - RDW | 58% Loosely correlated | -7.99% | ||
| ACHR - RDW | 56% Loosely correlated | -2.51% | ||
| RCAT - RDW | 54% Loosely correlated | -7.04% | ||
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SATL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SATL has been loosely correlated with LUNR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 54% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if SATL jumps, then LUNR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SATL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SATL | 100% | -5.89% | ||
| LUNR - SATL | 54% Loosely correlated | -3.76% | ||
| VOYG - SATL | 54% Loosely correlated | -7.99% | ||
| RDW - SATL | 51% Loosely correlated | -9.27% | ||
| RKLB - SATL | 48% Loosely correlated | -6.48% | ||
| PL - SATL | 47% Loosely correlated | +1.91% | ||
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