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SAIA vs TFII
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Saia, Inc. (SAIA) vs. TFI International Inc. (TFII) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both SAIA and TFII have delivered robust year-to-date gains around 32-35%, reflecting resilience in the transportation sector amid fluctuating freight volumes.
- TFII outperforms on a one-year basis with approximately 77% returns compared to SAIA's 29%, driven by diversified operations and earnings beats.
- SAIA, a pure-play less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier, shows network expansion but grapples with flat volumes and margin pressures in recent quarters.
- TFII benefits from strategic acquisitions and strong free cash flow generation, enhancing its market positioning.
- Valuations differ notably, with SAIA's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio around 46 versus TFII's 37, signaling varied growth expectations.
- Recent market activity highlights TFII's lower volatility (beta of 1.4) compared to SAIA's 2.0.
Introduction
In the competitive transportation and logistics sector, SAIA and TFII stand out as key players offering exposure to less-than-truckload (LTL) freight and broader logistics services. Investors and traders focused on industrial cyclicals, supply chain dynamics, or regional freight recovery may find this stock comparison valuable. Both companies navigate similar macroeconomic pressures like volume fluctuations and fuel costs, yet diverge in scale, diversification, and recent momentum. This analysis examines their business models, performance trends, and relative strengths to inform strategic decision-making in today's market environment.
SAIA Overview and Recent Performance
SAIA, Inc. is a leading less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier providing regional freight services across North America through an integrated network of terminals. With a market capitalization of approximately $11.8 billion, the company emphasizes premium service and operational efficiency in the Southeastern and Western U.S. In recent market activity, SAIA's stock has climbed over 35% year-to-date, supported by network expansions such as a new Pennsylvania terminal. However, fourth-quarter results showed flat revenue around $790 million and a 37% drop in operating income due to higher costs and softer volumes. Sentiment reflects cautious optimism ahead of first-quarter earnings, with shares trading near 52-week highs amid broader sector recovery signals.
TFII Overview and Recent Performance
TFII, or TFI International Inc., operates as a diversified North American transportation and logistics provider across LTL, truckload, package & courier, and logistics segments. Boasting a market cap near $11.3 billion, it serves a wide customer base through over 650 facilities. Recent weeks have seen TFII stock surge around 32% year-to-date and 77% over the past year, fueled by fourth-quarter earnings that beat expectations with $1.91 billion in revenue and strong free cash flow of $832 million annually. Acquisitions like Triangle Warehouse by subsidiary TA Dedicated bolster growth prospects, while a stable dividend enhances appeal. Positive momentum persists into first-quarter reporting.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
SAIA focuses on a streamlined LTL model with organic network growth, contrasting TFII's broader portfolio including truckload and logistics, supported by mergers & acquisitions (M&A). Growth drivers differ: SAIA relies on premium pricing amid volume softness, while TFII leverages acquisitions for scale. Recent momentum favors TFII with superior one-year gains and earnings consistency. Risk profiles highlight SAIA's higher beta (2.0) versus TFII's 1.4, exposing it more to sector swings. Both share transportation exposure but TFII offers greater diversification against freight cycles, trading at a relatively lower P/E amid positive sentiment.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward TFII based on stronger trend consistency, diversified revenue streams, recent acquisition catalysts, and superior relative performance metrics like one-year returns and cash flow stability. While SAIA shows solid YTD momentum and expansion potential, TFII's positioning suggests higher probability of outperformance in the near term amid stabilizing logistics demand.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is SAIA is a Buy and TFII is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
SAIA’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTFII’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- SAIA’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TFII’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
SAIA’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TFII’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- SAIA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TFII’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
SAIA (@Trucking) experienced а -8.04% price change this week, while TFII (@Trucking) price change was -5.68% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucking industry was -5.41%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.21%, and the average quarterly price growth was +45.26%.
Reported Earning Dates
SAIA is expected to report earnings on Jul 24, 2026.
TFII is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucking (-5.41% weekly)The trucking industry provides road transportation delivery and logistical services, including moving large quantities of raw materials, works in process, and finished goods —often from manufacturing plants to retail distribution centers. Trucks are also used in the construction industry, as they transport large amounts of rocks, concrete, and other building materials used in construction. Trucks in the U.S. are responsible for the majority of freight movement over land, and therefore play an important role in the manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing industries. The business could be affected by economic cycles, since it is closely linked with manufacturing, retail and construction. Some of the major trucking companies in the U.S. are Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., and XPO Logistics, Inc.
| SAIA | TFII | SAIA / TFII | |
| Capitalization | 11.6B | 12.1B | 96% |
| EBITDA | 603M | 1.14B | 53% |
| Gain YTD | 33.545 | 42.729 | 79% |
| P/E Ratio | 45.80 | 40.91 | 112% |
| Revenue | 3.25B | 7.87B | 41% |
| Total Cash | 39.2M | 186M | 21% |
| Total Debt | 262M | 3.18B | 8% |
SAIA | TFII | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 85 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 88 Overvalued | 34 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 67 | 60 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 71 | 67 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 10 | 10 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TFII's Valuation (34) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SAIA (88) in the Trucking industry. This means that TFII’s stock grew somewhat faster than SAIA’s over the last 12 months.
TFII's Profit vs Risk Rating (60) in the null industry is in the same range as SAIA (67) in the Trucking industry. This means that TFII’s stock grew similarly to SAIA’s over the last 12 months.
TFII's SMR Rating (67) in the null industry is in the same range as SAIA (71) in the Trucking industry. This means that TFII’s stock grew similarly to SAIA’s over the last 12 months.
TFII's Price Growth Rating (40) in the null industry is in the same range as SAIA (41) in the Trucking industry. This means that TFII’s stock grew similarly to SAIA’s over the last 12 months.
TFII's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the null industry is in the same range as SAIA (10) in the Trucking industry. This means that TFII’s stock grew similarly to SAIA’s over the last 12 months.
| SAIA | TFII | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 57% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 88% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 70% | 8 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 89% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 84% | 1 day ago 60% |
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SAIA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SAIA has been closely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SAIA jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SAIA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAIA | 100% | +0.21% | ||
| XPO - SAIA | 77% Closely correlated | +0.85% | ||
| ARCB - SAIA | 77% Closely correlated | +0.70% | ||
| ODFL - SAIA | 77% Closely correlated | -0.69% | ||
| CVLG - SAIA | 74% Closely correlated | +1.64% | ||
| TFII - SAIA | 73% Closely correlated | +1.00% | ||
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TFII and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TFII has been closely correlated with ODFL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TFII jumps, then ODFL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TFII | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TFII | 100% | +1.00% | ||
| ODFL - TFII | 75% Closely correlated | -0.69% | ||
| ARCB - TFII | 74% Closely correlated | +0.70% | ||
| SAIA - TFII | 73% Closely correlated | +0.21% | ||
| WERN - TFII | 73% Closely correlated | +0.42% | ||
| KNX - TFII | 71% Closely correlated | +1.69% | ||
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