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ODFL vs SAIA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) vs. Saia (SAIA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) and Saia (SAIA) are both leading less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers in the U.S. trucking sector, with ODFL holding a larger market capitalization of approximately $36 billion compared to SAIA’s roughly $9 billion.
- Recent market activity shows ODFL shares trading near $173–$175 after a pullback from 52-week highs above $250, supported by Q2 2026 revenue growth of 10.4% and August revenue-per-day increases of 12.4%.
- SAIA shares have fluctuated around $342 following strong Q2 results and network expansion updates, with analysts noting volume gains but highlighting higher volatility relative to peers.
- ODFL demonstrates higher operating margins and lower beta (around 1.2) versus SAIA’s more aggressive growth profile and elevated beta (near 2.1), reflecting differences in scale and expansion strategy.
- Both companies operate in the competitive LTL segment, where pricing power, fuel costs, and freight demand influence relative performance amid broader economic and interest-rate considerations.
- Analyst price targets suggest potential upside for both, with ODFL averaging around $229 and SAIA near $433, though valuations reflect contrasting risk-return profiles.
Introduction
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) and Saia (SAIA) represent two prominent players in the less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation industry. Investors and traders comparing these stocks often seek insights into relative performance, operational efficiency, and positioning within a cyclical sector sensitive to economic conditions, fuel prices, and capacity dynamics. This analysis examines recent market activity, business fundamentals, and sentiment shifts to provide a balanced view for those evaluating exposure to trucking equities. The comparison is particularly relevant for market participants focused on sector rotation, growth versus stability trade-offs, and how macroeconomic factors affect LTL operators differently based on scale and strategy.
ODFL Overview and Recent Performance
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) operates as a major less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier providing regional, inter-regional, and national freight services across the United States. In recent market activity, shares have experienced a correction, trading near $173–$175 after declining from 52-week highs above $250, influenced by broader sector pressures including Federal Reserve rate decisions and concerns over fuel and labor costs. Q2 2026 results showed revenue of $1.55 billion, up 10.4% year over year, with earnings per share of $1.68. August operating metrics indicated revenue per day growth of 12.4%, driven by yield improvements despite modest volume softness. Institutional interest, including purchases by Bank of America, has provided some support amid the pullback. Sentiment reflects a balance between solid pricing trends and caution around near-term demand consistency.
SAIA Overview and Recent Performance
Saia (SAIA) functions as a less-than-truckload (LTL) transportation provider with a focus on expanding its terminal network to enhance national coverage. Recent performance has featured volatility, with shares fluctuating around $342 following Q2 2026 results that beat estimates on revenue of $956.5 million (up 17.1% year over year) and earnings per share of $3.51. July and August shipment data highlighted volume gains, contributing to positive analyst commentary and price target adjustments. The company has announced new terminal openings in the Western U.S., supporting its growth trajectory. Stock movement reflects both operational momentum and sensitivity to industry-wide factors such as capacity utilization and pricing environments, resulting in a more pronounced reaction compared to larger peers in recent weeks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) and Saia (SAIA) share exposure to the less-than-truckload (LTL) segment but differ in scale and approach. ODFL benefits from an established national network and higher operating margins, contributing to greater stability as measured by lower beta. SAIA pursues network expansion, which supports higher revenue growth potential but introduces elevated volatility and execution risks. Recent momentum has favored ODFL’s pricing consistency amid softer volumes, while SAIA has highlighted shipment increases. Risk factors include ODFL’s sensitivity to broader market corrections and SAIA’s higher debt relative to equity in certain periods. Market sentiment positions ODFL as a defensive large-cap option within trucking and SAIA as a higher-beta growth name, with trade-offs centered on margin durability versus expansion upside.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, margin stability, and relative positioning within the less-than-truckload (LTL) sector, Tickeron’s AI would likely assign a higher probability of favorable risk-adjusted characteristics to Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) in the current environment. Its larger scale, lower volatility profile, and demonstrated yield management provide a more consistent backdrop compared to Saia (SAIA)’s expansion-driven trajectory. This assessment reflects probabilistic evaluation of recent performance patterns rather than guarantees of future results.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ODFL is a StrongBuy and SAIA is a Buy.
ODFL | SAIA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 15 | 23 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 90 Overvalued | 83 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 81 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 39 | 68 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 21 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SAIA's Valuation (83) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as ODFL (90). This means that SAIA’s stock grew similarly to ODFL’s over the last 12 months.
ODFL's Profit vs Risk Rating (77) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as SAIA (81). This means that ODFL’s stock grew similarly to SAIA’s over the last 12 months.
ODFL's SMR Rating (39) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as SAIA (68). This means that ODFL’s stock grew similarly to SAIA’s over the last 12 months.
SAIA's Price Growth Rating (58) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as ODFL (60). This means that SAIA’s stock grew similarly to ODFL’s over the last 12 months.
ODFL's P/E Growth Rating (21) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as SAIA (25). This means that ODFL’s stock grew similarly to SAIA’s over the last 12 months.
| ODFL | SAIA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 82% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 85% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 82% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ODFL’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while SAIA’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ODFL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SAIA’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ODFL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SAIA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ODFL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 2 bearish.
- SAIA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ODFL (@Trucking) experienced а -0.09% price change this week, while SAIA (@Trucking) price change was -2.51% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucking industry was -5.35%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.59%, and the average quarterly price growth was +15.89%.
Reported Earning Dates
ODFL is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
SAIA is expected to report earnings on Oct 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucking (-5.35% weekly)The trucking industry provides road transportation delivery and logistical services, including moving large quantities of raw materials, works in process, and finished goods —often from manufacturing plants to retail distribution centers. Trucks are also used in the construction industry, as they transport large amounts of rocks, concrete, and other building materials used in construction. Trucks in the U.S. are responsible for the majority of freight movement over land, and therefore play an important role in the manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing industries. The business could be affected by economic cycles, since it is closely linked with manufacturing, retail and construction. Some of the major trucking companies in the U.S. are Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., and XPO Logistics, Inc.
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ODFL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ODFL has been closely correlated with SAIA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ODFL jumps, then SAIA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ODFL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODFL | 100% | -1.57% | ||
| SAIA - ODFL | 83% Closely correlated | -3.09% | ||
| ARCB - ODFL | 77% Closely correlated | -2.85% | ||
| XPO - ODFL | 74% Closely correlated | -2.11% | ||
| TFII - ODFL | 74% Closely correlated | -2.55% | ||
| KNX - ODFL | 73% Closely correlated | -2.49% | ||
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SAIA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SAIA has been closely correlated with ODFL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SAIA jumps, then ODFL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SAIA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAIA | 100% | -3.09% | ||
| ODFL - SAIA | 83% Closely correlated | -1.57% | ||
| TFII - SAIA | 74% Closely correlated | -2.55% | ||
| CVLG - SAIA | 72% Closely correlated | -2.90% | ||
| ARCB - SAIA | 72% Closely correlated | -2.85% | ||
| HTLD - SAIA | 70% Closely correlated | -2.65% | ||
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