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ODFL vs SAIA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) vs. Saia (SAIA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ODFL has outperformed SAIA year-to-date with a 41.7% gain compared to 35.5%, reflecting stronger momentum in recent market activity.
- Both stocks trade at elevated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios around 45-46 times trailing earnings, indicating premium valuations in the less-than-truckload (LTL) freight sector.
- ODFL's larger market cap of $46.25 billion provides greater scale versus SAIA's $11.8 billion, with superior profit margins at 18.6%.
- Recent analyst upgrades have boosted ODFL shares, while SAIA focuses on network expansion amid softer freight demand.
- ODFL exhibits lower volatility with a beta of 1.21 versus SAIA's 2.04, appealing to stability-focused investors.
- Upcoming Q1 2026 earnings for both—ODFL on April 29 and SAIA on April 30—could drive near-term relative performance.
Introduction
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) and Saia (SAIA) are prominent players in the less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation sector, a niche of the industrials market sensitive to economic cycles and supply chain dynamics. This stock comparison analyzes their recent market positioning, performance trends, and key metrics, aiding traders seeking short-term momentum and investors evaluating long-term growth in trucking. With freight volumes stabilizing amid broader economic recovery signals, understanding their relative strengths helps in portfolio allocation within transportation equities.
ODFL Overview and Recent Performance
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), a leading national LTL carrier, operates an extensive network emphasizing high service quality and operational efficiency. In recent weeks, ODFL shares have gained traction, with a year-to-date rise of 41.7% and a one-month increase of approximately 16%, outpacing broader market benchmarks. Positive sentiment stems from analyst upgrades by firms like Stifel and Goldman Sachs, highlighting resilient tonnage and 99% on-time performance despite sector headwinds. Trading near $222 with a market cap exceeding $46 billion, the stock reflects premium pricing but benefits from strong fundamentals, including 18.6% profit margins and robust free cash flow. Investors anticipate Q1 2026 results on April 29, following a Q4 2025 EPS beat.
SAIA Overview and Recent Performance
Saia (SAIA), Inc., a regional LTL provider, has expanded aggressively through terminal additions, enhancing its footprint in high-growth markets like the Northeast. Recent market activity shows year-to-date gains of 35.5% and one-year returns of 24.9%, though trailing ODFL amid valuation scrutiny. Shares hover around $442, supported by a new Pennsylvania terminal announcement, signaling network densification to capture volume. However, softer demand has pressured metrics, with Q4 2025 EPS declining year-over-year and analysts forecasting a Q1 2026 dip. At a $11.8 billion market cap, SAIA maintains solid revenue growth but faces higher leverage and negative free cash flow, influencing cautious sentiment ahead of April 30 earnings.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both ODFL and SAIA thrive in LTL freight, prioritizing density and service over full-truckload volumes, but ODFL’s national scale contrasts SAIA’s regional focus with expansion-driven growth. Recent momentum favors ODFL, with superior YTD and one-month returns amid analyst support, while SAIA contends with earnings deceleration. Risk profiles differ markedly: ODFL’s low debt (3% debt-to-equity) and beta of 1.21 offer stability versus SAIA’s higher leverage (12%) and beta of 2.04, exposing it more to freight cycles. Sector exposure ties both to industrials, vulnerable to tonnage softness, yet ODFL’s 18.6% margins eclipse SAIA’s 7.9%, bolstering resilience. Market sentiment leans toward ODFL for consistency, though SAIA trades at a relative discount on price-to-sales.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently favor ODFL over SAIA based on trend consistency, lower relative volatility, superior margins, and positive analyst catalysts positioning it for potential outperformance post-earnings. While SAIA offers growth upside through expansion, ODFL’s stability and momentum suggest higher probability of near-term gains in the LTL space.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ODFL is a Buy and SAIA is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ODFL’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileSAIA’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ODFL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- SAIA’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ODFL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SAIA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ODFL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SAIA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ODFL (@Trucking) experienced а -7.54% price change this week, while SAIA (@Trucking) price change was -8.04% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucking industry was -3.80%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.82%, and the average quarterly price growth was +44.82%.
Reported Earning Dates
ODFL is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
SAIA is expected to report earnings on Jul 24, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucking (-3.80% weekly)The trucking industry provides road transportation delivery and logistical services, including moving large quantities of raw materials, works in process, and finished goods —often from manufacturing plants to retail distribution centers. Trucks are also used in the construction industry, as they transport large amounts of rocks, concrete, and other building materials used in construction. Trucks in the U.S. are responsible for the majority of freight movement over land, and therefore play an important role in the manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing industries. The business could be affected by economic cycles, since it is closely linked with manufacturing, retail and construction. Some of the major trucking companies in the U.S. are Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., and XPO Logistics, Inc.
| ODFL | SAIA | ODFL / SAIA | |
| Capitalization | 45.7B | 11.6B | 394% |
| EBITDA | 1.71B | 603M | 283% |
| Gain YTD | 40.373 | 33.545 | 120% |
| P/E Ratio | 45.83 | 45.80 | 100% |
| Revenue | 5.46B | 3.25B | 168% |
| Total Cash | 288M | 39.2M | 735% |
| Total Debt | 40M | 262M | 15% |
ODFL | SAIA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 86 | 56 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 93 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 53 | 67 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 41 | 71 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 15 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 19 | 10 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SAIA's Valuation (88) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as ODFL (93). This means that SAIA’s stock grew similarly to ODFL’s over the last 12 months.
ODFL's Profit vs Risk Rating (53) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as SAIA (67). This means that ODFL’s stock grew similarly to SAIA’s over the last 12 months.
ODFL's SMR Rating (41) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as SAIA (71). This means that ODFL’s stock grew similarly to SAIA’s over the last 12 months.
ODFL's Price Growth Rating (15) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as SAIA (41). This means that ODFL’s stock grew similarly to SAIA’s over the last 12 months.
SAIA's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as ODFL (19). This means that SAIA’s stock grew similarly to ODFL’s over the last 12 months.
| ODFL | SAIA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 88% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 58% | 8 days ago 70% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 89% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 84% |
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ODFL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ODFL has been closely correlated with SAIA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ODFL jumps, then SAIA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ODFL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODFL | 100% | -0.69% | ||
| SAIA - ODFL | 83% Closely correlated | +0.21% | ||
| ARCB - ODFL | 82% Closely correlated | +0.70% | ||
| KNX - ODFL | 78% Closely correlated | +1.69% | ||
| TFII - ODFL | 75% Closely correlated | +1.00% | ||
| MRTN - ODFL | 75% Closely correlated | +0.42% | ||
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SAIA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SAIA has been closely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SAIA jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SAIA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAIA | 100% | +0.21% | ||
| XPO - SAIA | 77% Closely correlated | +0.85% | ||
| ARCB - SAIA | 77% Closely correlated | +0.70% | ||
| ODFL - SAIA | 77% Closely correlated | -0.69% | ||
| CVLG - SAIA | 74% Closely correlated | +1.64% | ||
| TFII - SAIA | 73% Closely correlated | +1.00% | ||
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