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ODFL vs TFII
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) vs. TFI International (TFII) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) has delivered stronger year-to-date gains of approximately 42%, outpacing TFI International (TFII)'s 33% rise, amid recovering freight demand.
- ODFL maintains superior profitability with an operating margin around 18-20%, compared to TFII's roughly 4% profit margin.
- TFII offers a higher dividend yield of 1.3% versus ODFL's 0.5%, appealing to income-focused investors.
- Both stocks trade at elevated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios—ODFL at 46 trailing versus TFII at 37—but TFII's forward P/E of 28 suggests relative value.
- ODFL exhibits lower volatility with a beta of 1.21, compared to TFII's 1.40.
- Analyst consensus leans "Hold" for ODFL with targets around $207, while TFII receives "Overweight" ratings near $127.
Introduction
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) and TFI International (TFII) represent key players in the North American transportation sector, with ODFL specializing in less-than-truckload (LTL) freight and TFII offering diversified logistics services. This comparison highlights their relative performance amid freight market recovery and economic shifts, aiding traders seeking momentum plays and investors evaluating sector exposure for long-term portfolios. Recent market activity underscores contrasts in valuation, growth trajectories, and risk profiles, making this analysis timely for transportation-focused strategies.
ODFL Overview and Recent Performance
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) operates as a leading LTL freight carrier, emphasizing premium service, operational efficiency, and an asset-light model with low debt levels. In recent market activity, ODFL shares have surged, posting over 15% gains in the past month and 42% year-to-date, driven by robust demand recovery and strong quarterly results. Sentiment has been bolstered by consistent earnings beats and industry outperformance, though elevated valuations have prompted analyst caution. Upcoming first-quarter earnings are anticipated to reflect sustained tonnage growth, influencing near-term price behavior.
TFII Overview and Recent Performance
TFI International (TFII) provides a broad range of transportation and logistics services, including truckload, LTL, and package operations across North America, supported by strategic acquisitions. Recent weeks have seen steady gains, with year-to-date returns near 33%, fueled by operational improvements and a key acquisition of Triangle Warehouse by subsidiary TA Dedicated to enhance logistics capabilities. First-quarter earnings recently released highlighted revenue stability amid freight challenges, positively shifting sentiment despite softer margins. Dividend declarations have added appeal, though higher leverage tempers enthusiasm compared to peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ODFL and TFII both benefit from transportation sector tailwinds but diverge in business models: ODFL's focused LTL operations yield superior margins and organic growth, while TFII's diversified portfolio drives revenue scale via mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Recent momentum favors ODFL with sharper gains, yet TFII offers growth potential through expansions like recent warehouse deals. Risk factors include TFII's higher debt-to-equity (around 120%) and beta, contrasting ODFL's stability. Market sentiment reflects ODFL's premium pricing amid profitability strength versus TFII's value-oriented positioning.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently favors ODFL due to its trend consistency, higher profitability metrics, lower relative risk, and stronger recent positioning in the LTL segment. While TFII presents compelling value and diversification, ODFL's operational edge suggests greater probability of outperformance in stable freight conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ODFL is a Buy and TFII is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ODFL’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileTFII’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ODFL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TFII’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ODFL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TFII’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ODFL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TFII’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ODFL (@Trucking) experienced а -7.54% price change this week, while TFII (@Trucking) price change was -5.68% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucking industry was -3.80%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.82%, and the average quarterly price growth was +44.82%.
Reported Earning Dates
ODFL is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
TFII is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucking (-3.80% weekly)The trucking industry provides road transportation delivery and logistical services, including moving large quantities of raw materials, works in process, and finished goods —often from manufacturing plants to retail distribution centers. Trucks are also used in the construction industry, as they transport large amounts of rocks, concrete, and other building materials used in construction. Trucks in the U.S. are responsible for the majority of freight movement over land, and therefore play an important role in the manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing industries. The business could be affected by economic cycles, since it is closely linked with manufacturing, retail and construction. Some of the major trucking companies in the U.S. are Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., and XPO Logistics, Inc.
| ODFL | TFII | ODFL / TFII | |
| Capitalization | 45.7B | 12.1B | 378% |
| EBITDA | 1.71B | 1.14B | 150% |
| Gain YTD | 40.373 | 42.729 | 94% |
| P/E Ratio | 45.83 | 40.91 | 112% |
| Revenue | 5.46B | 7.87B | 69% |
| Total Cash | 288M | 186M | 155% |
| Total Debt | 40M | 3.18B | 1% |
ODFL | TFII | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 86 | 85 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 93 Overvalued | 34 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 53 | 60 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 41 | 67 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 15 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 19 | 10 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TFII's Valuation (34) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ODFL (93) in the Trucking industry. This means that TFII’s stock grew somewhat faster than ODFL’s over the last 12 months.
ODFL's Profit vs Risk Rating (53) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as TFII (60) in the null industry. This means that ODFL’s stock grew similarly to TFII’s over the last 12 months.
ODFL's SMR Rating (41) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as TFII (67) in the null industry. This means that ODFL’s stock grew similarly to TFII’s over the last 12 months.
ODFL's Price Growth Rating (15) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as TFII (40) in the null industry. This means that ODFL’s stock grew similarly to TFII’s over the last 12 months.
TFII's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the null industry is in the same range as ODFL (19) in the Trucking industry. This means that TFII’s stock grew similarly to ODFL’s over the last 12 months.
| ODFL | TFII | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 58% | 8 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 60% |
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ODFL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ODFL has been closely correlated with SAIA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ODFL jumps, then SAIA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ODFL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODFL | 100% | -0.69% | ||
| SAIA - ODFL | 83% Closely correlated | +0.21% | ||
| ARCB - ODFL | 82% Closely correlated | +0.70% | ||
| KNX - ODFL | 78% Closely correlated | +1.69% | ||
| TFII - ODFL | 75% Closely correlated | +1.00% | ||
| MRTN - ODFL | 75% Closely correlated | +0.42% | ||
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