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SJM vs TR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) vs. Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (TR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) operates in packaged foods, pet foods, and coffee, while Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (TR) focuses exclusively on confectionery products.
- Over recent weeks, SJM shares have shown modest gains amid preparations for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and analyst price target increases, though input cost pressures persist.
- TR has demonstrated stronger year-to-date performance compared with SJM, supported by its defensive positioning in the confectionery sector and consistent dividend growth.
- SJM faces sector-specific challenges including potential tariff impacts on coffee margins, whereas TR contends with broader commodity volatility such as cocoa costs.
- Both stocks trade in the consumer defensive space, offering relative stability, but differ in market capitalization, growth drivers, and exposure to e-commerce versus traditional retail channels.
- Market sentiment reflects cautious optimism for SJM ahead of earnings, while TR maintains a steady profile with limited near-term catalysts.
Introduction
The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) and Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (TR) represent two distinct segments within the consumer defensive sector. SJM spans a diversified portfolio of food, pet, and coffee brands, while TR specializes in iconic confectionery items. Investors and traders seeking exposure to stable consumer staples may find this comparison relevant when evaluating relative performance, sector dynamics, and positioning in the current market environment. The analysis highlights observable differences in business models, recent price behavior, and sentiment factors without projecting future outcomes.
SJM Overview and Recent Performance
The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) produces consumer foods, pet foods, and coffee products under brands including Folgers, Jif, and Meow Mix. In recent market activity, shares have posted modest gains, with a 30-day return near 4% amid broader sector pressures. Recent developments include preparations for fiscal fourth-quarter results, where analysts anticipate revenue growth alongside elevated input costs. An analyst at Morgan Stanley raised the price target to $106 while maintaining an Equal Weight rating. Sentiment has been influenced by concerns over tariffs affecting coffee margins and ongoing portfolio reviews, contributing to measured investor caution despite the stock's defensive characteristics.
TR Overview and Recent Performance
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (TR) manufactures and sells confectionery products such as Tootsie Rolls and related candies. In recent market activity, shares have traded in a relatively narrow range near recent lows from the April peak, reflecting stability in a defensive category. Performance has benefited from consistent dividend declarations, including a streak exceeding 50 years of increases. Limited major catalysts have emerged in recent weeks, with focus remaining on operational resilience amid commodity cost fluctuations. Sentiment appears steady, supported by the company's niche market position and history of shareholder returns through dividends and stock payouts.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
In business model terms, SJM offers broader diversification across multiple consumer categories, providing some buffer against single-product volatility, while TR maintains a focused confectionery operation that benefits from brand loyalty but carries higher exposure to specific commodity swings. Recent momentum favors TR on a year-to-date basis relative to SJM, though SJM has seen incremental analyst support ahead of earnings. Risk factors differ notably: SJM contends with potential margin compression from tariffs and input costs in coffee, whereas TR faces ongoing pressures from cocoa and sugar pricing. Sector exposure places both in consumer defensive, yet SJM includes pet food and coffee elements with greater e-commerce sensitivity compared with TR's traditional retail orientation. Market sentiment currently appears more event-driven for SJM due to upcoming reports, while TR exhibits quieter, stability-oriented positioning.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative stability, and positioning amid sector dynamics, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a probabilistic edge to TR over SJM. TR's defensive confectionery focus and dividend track record contribute to steadier signals in recent activity, whereas SJM's broader exposures introduce additional variables around input costs and earnings timing. This assessment reflects pattern recognition from available data and remains subject to evolving market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is SJM is a StrongBuy and TR is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
SJM’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileTR’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- SJM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
SJM’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TR’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- SJM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
SJM (@Food: Major Diversified) experienced а -7.55% price change this week, while TR (@Food: Specialty/Candy) price change was -4.15% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Major Diversified industry was -0.50%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.80%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was +0.22%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.28%, and the average quarterly price growth was -10.62%.
Reported Earning Dates
SJM is expected to report earnings on Sep 01, 2026.
TR is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Food: Major Diversified (-0.50% weekly)Companies in this industry usually make a diverse range of agricultural and/or processed food. Some prominent names in this segment are Mondelez International, which makes chocolates, biscuits, cookies etc. The Kraft Heinz Company specializes in ketchups, sauces, fruit drink pouches and many more. General Mills, Inc. sells flour and cereal. Kellogg is famous for its snacks and breakfast cereal. And so on down the line. As more and more consumers are looking for healthier options in food in recent years, several legacy food companies have responded by revamping brands to include organic and no-added-sugar versions, and/or acquiring healthy food firms, and even streamlining operations.
@Food: Specialty/Candy (+0.22% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
| SJM | TR | SJM / TR | |
| Capitalization | 11.8B | 2.87B | 412% |
| EBITDA | -153.6M | 157M | -98% |
| Gain YTD | 11.915 | 2.251 | 529% |
| P/E Ratio | 22.05 | 27.22 | 81% |
| Revenue | 8.93B | 736M | 1,213% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 7.45B | 13.6M | 54,809% |
SJM | TR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 8 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 17 Undervalued | 67 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 60 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 97 | 69 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 27 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 26 | 56 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SJM's Valuation (17) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TR (67). This means that SJM’s stock grew somewhat faster than TR’s over the last 12 months.
TR's Profit vs Risk Rating (60) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SJM (100). This means that TR’s stock grew somewhat faster than SJM’s over the last 12 months.
TR's SMR Rating (69) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as SJM (97). This means that TR’s stock grew similarly to SJM’s over the last 12 months.
SJM's Price Growth Rating (27) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TR (61). This means that SJM’s stock grew somewhat faster than TR’s over the last 12 months.
SJM's P/E Growth Rating (26) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as TR (56). This means that SJM’s stock grew similarly to TR’s over the last 12 months.
| SJM | TR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 56% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 50% | 14 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 50% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 46% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| EMM | 47.31 | 0.18 | +0.39% |
| Global X Emerging Markets ex-China ETF | |||
| ZSEP | 27.50 | N/A | +0.02% |
| Innovator Equity Defined Prot ETF-1YrSep | |||
| DAUG | 46.70 | -0.02 | -0.04% |
| FT Vest US Equity Deep Bfr ETF Aug | |||
| TCPB | 50.71 | -0.11 | -0.21% |
| Thrivent Core Plus Bond ETF | |||
| APUE | 45.90 | -0.17 | -0.37% |
| ActivePassive U.S. Equity ETF | |||
SJM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SJM has been loosely correlated with GIS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if SJM jumps, then GIS could also see price increases.
TR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TR has been loosely correlated with KHC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TR jumps, then KHC could also see price increases.