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SPTM vs VTI
Which ETF would AI Choose? State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500 Composite Stock Market ETF (SPTM) vs. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)
Key Takeaways
- Both SPTM and VTI are low-cost passive ETFs providing broad exposure to the U.S. equity market, with identical expense ratios of 0.03%.
- SPTM tracks the S&P Composite 1500 Index and holds approximately 1,500 stocks, emphasizing larger and mid-cap companies with profitability screens.
- VTI tracks a total market index and holds over 3,400 stocks, offering deeper exposure to small-cap and micro-cap segments for broader diversification.
- Top holdings and sector allocations are highly similar in both funds, with technology representing roughly 37% of assets and the largest positions concentrated in mega-cap names such as NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft.
- VTI provides marginally greater small-cap breadth, which can influence relative performance during periods of small-cap outperformance, while SPTM maintains a slightly more concentrated large-cap tilt.
- Both ETFs serve as core holdings for long-term investors seeking comprehensive U.S. market exposure with minimal costs and high liquidity.
Introduction
Investors seeking comprehensive U.S. equity exposure often compare total market ETFs as foundational portfolio components. SPTM and VTI compete directly in this category, delivering diversified access to thousands of U.S. stocks across market capitalizations. Both funds aim to replicate broad market performance at identical ultra-low costs, making them interchangeable for many buy-and-hold strategies. The primary structural distinction lies in index methodology and holdings count, which affects the degree of small-cap inclusion and overall portfolio breadth. In the current environment of evolving sector leadership and interest rate dynamics, these differences influence how each fund captures market returns over market cycles.
State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500 Composite Stock Market ETF (SPTM) Overview
SPTM is a passive ETF that seeks to track the performance of the S&P Composite 1500 Index before expenses. The index combines the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600, resulting in approximately 1,500 holdings. Top positions typically include NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet, with the top 10 representing around 35% of assets. Sector allocations feature technology near 37%, followed by financials and communication services. The expense ratio stands at 0.03%. As a physically replicated, open-ended fund from State Street, SPTM employs quarterly rebalancing aligned with index changes and maintains high liquidity suitable for institutional and retail investors.
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) Overview
VTI is a passive ETF designed to track the performance of the CRSP US Total Market Index or equivalent total market benchmarks. It holds over 3,400 stocks, spanning large-, mid-, small-, and micro-cap segments for near-complete coverage of the investable U.S. equity universe. Top holdings mirror those of broad market peers, led by NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft, with the top 10 accounting for approximately 33-35% of the portfolio. Technology exposure approximates 37%, with balanced allocations across financials, healthcare, and consumer sectors. The expense ratio is 0.03%. Issued by Vanguard, the fund uses physical replication and periodic rebalancing, offering exceptional liquidity and serving as a core holding for diversified portfolios.
Industry and Thematic Backdrop
The U.S. total stock market remains dominated by technology and growth-oriented sectors amid ongoing innovation in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and digital infrastructure. Macroeconomic factors including Federal Reserve policy on interest rates, corporate earnings growth, and capital allocation trends influence sector rotation between growth and value segments. Regulatory developments in technology and antitrust scrutiny add layers of uncertainty, while strong corporate balance sheets support resilience. Both ETFs benefit from broad economic expansion but face risks from valuation compression in high-multiple names and potential slowdowns in consumer spending or capital expenditures. Capital flows into broad equity ETFs continue as investors seek diversified, low-cost exposure amid market volatility.
Performance and Positioning Comparison
Over recent market cycles, SPTM and VTI have delivered closely aligned returns due to overlapping large-cap holdings. Differences emerge during small-cap rallies, where VTI's additional holdings provide incremental exposure. In periods of large-cap technology leadership, the funds perform nearly identically. Volatility remains comparable, with both exhibiting market-like beta. Relative positioning favors VTI for investors prioritizing maximum diversification and small-cap participation, while SPTM offers a slightly more streamlined large- and mid-cap profile. Earnings cycles of mega-cap technology firms drive much of the shared performance dynamics.
AI Screener
Tickeron’s AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. Investors seeking data-driven insights on funds like SPTM and VTI can leverage this platform for enhanced decision-making.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on structural characteristics, VTI receives a modest probabilistic edge due to its broader diversification across market capitalizations and greater small-cap inclusion, which supports resilience across varied market regimes. Both funds share identical costs and highly correlated exposures, but VTI's wider net aligns with comprehensive total-market objectives. SPTM remains compelling for investors preferring a more concentrated large-cap focus with S&P profitability criteria. Selection ultimately depends on specific portfolio construction preferences.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is SPTM is a Hold and VTI is a Hold.
SPTM in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on November 05, 2026
SPTM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 34 of 38 cases where SPTM's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 39 of 45 cases where SPTM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
Following a +1.88% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPTM advanced for three days, in 284 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SPTM as a result. In 56 of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SPTM turned negative on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 72%.
SPTM moved below its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SPTM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPTM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
The Aroon Indicator for SPTM entered a downward trend on November 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
VTI in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on November 05, 2026
VTI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 35 of 39 cases where VTI's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 39 of 49 cases where VTI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Following a +1.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VTI advanced for three days, in 262 of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on VTI as a result. In 61 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for VTI turned negative on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 71%.
VTI moved below its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for VTI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VTI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator for VTI entered a downward trend on November 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
| SPTM | VTI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 87% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 75% | 5 days ago 76% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 80% |
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SPTM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SPTM has been loosely correlated with AVGO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if SPTM jumps, then AVGO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SPTM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPTM | 100% | -4.30% | ||
| AVGO - SPTM | 61% Loosely correlated | -10.43% | ||
| MSFT - SPTM | 60% Loosely correlated | -3.58% | ||
| AAPL - SPTM | 60% Loosely correlated | -1.53% | ||
| AMZN - SPTM | 58% Loosely correlated | -2.19% | ||
| META - SPTM | 57% Loosely correlated | -3.96% | ||
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