TLT
Price
$81.73
Change
+$1.49 (+1.86%)
Updated
Oct 22, 04:59 PM (EDT)
Net Assets
46.77B
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
UTHY
Price
$38.58
Change
+$0.70 (+1.85%)
Updated
Oct 22, 04:59 PM (EDT)
Net Assets
213.83M
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
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TLT vs UTHY

TLT vs UTHY Comparison Chart in %
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A.I.Advisor
Oct 21, 2026

Which ETF would AI Choose? iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs. F/m US Treasury 30 Year Bond ETF (UTHY)

Key Takeaways

  • TLT tracks a broad index of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities greater than 20 years and holds approximately 47 securities, providing diversified exposure within the long-duration segment.
  • UTHY is a single-bond ETF that targets the most recently issued on-the-run 30-year U.S. Treasury bond, resulting in a highly concentrated portfolio typically consisting of one primary security plus cash.
  • Both ETFs maintain identical expense ratios of 0.15% and passive indexing strategies focused exclusively on U.S. Treasuries, eliminating credit risk but exposing investors to interest-rate sensitivity.
  • TLT offers broader liquidity and a longer track record since its 2002 inception, while UTHY, launched in 2023, delivers precise duration targeting at the 30-year point with monthly distributions.
  • Structural differences in holdings create distinct risk profiles: TLT spreads duration exposure across multiple long-maturity issues, whereas UTHY concentrates on the current 30-year benchmark for targeted positioning.
  • Both funds serve investors seeking government-bond exposure without corporate credit, with performance driven by interest-rate expectations, inflation trends, and Federal Reserve policy shifts.

Introduction

Long-duration U.S. Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have gained relevance amid evolving interest-rate environments and portfolio hedging needs. TLT and UTHY both provide pure exposure to extended-maturity government bonds without credit risk, yet they employ different approaches to achieve long-duration objectives. TLT delivers diversified access across the 20-plus-year segment, while UTHY offers concentrated exposure to the benchmark 30-year issue. Investors comparing these vehicles evaluate trade-offs between diversification, liquidity, and precise duration management within the same broad fixed-income category.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Overview

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF seeks to track the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. It holds approximately 47 U.S. Treasury securities with remaining maturities exceeding 20 years. Top holdings consist of various long-maturity Treasury notes and bonds, with sector allocation limited entirely to government debt. The fund charges an expense ratio of 0.15% and operates as a passive, unleveraged index-tracking vehicle. Rebalancing follows the underlying index methodology on a periodic basis. TLT features high liquidity, deep options markets, and a structure that spreads interest-rate risk across multiple issues, distinguishing it as a liquid vehicle for broad long-duration Treasury exposure.

F/m US Treasury 30 Year Bond ETF (UTHY) Overview

The F/m US Treasury 30 Year Bond ETF aims to track the Bloomberg US Treasury Bellwether 30Y Total Return USD Unhedged Index. It maintains a concentrated portfolio typically holding the single most recently issued on-the-run 30-year U.S. Treasury bond plus a nominal cash position, resulting in two holdings. Sector allocation is 100% U.S. government debt. The ETF applies an expense ratio of 0.15% and follows a passive indexing strategy. Launched in 2023, UTHY emphasizes operational efficiency by minimizing rollover costs associated with rolling into new 30-year issues. Its structure enables precise targeting of the 30-year point on the yield curve with monthly dividend distributions.

Industry and Thematic Backdrop

The U.S. Treasury market remains central to global fixed-income strategies, influenced by Federal Reserve monetary policy, inflation expectations, and fiscal developments. Long-duration segments attract investors seeking duration extension for hedging equity volatility or expressing views on rate trajectories. Capital flows into government-bond ETFs reflect ongoing demand for liquid, high-quality duration without credit exposure. Regulatory stability around Treasury issuance supports both diversified and single-security approaches, while macroeconomic drivers such as growth data and geopolitical events continue to shape yield-curve dynamics and sector positioning.

Performance and Positioning Comparison

In recent market cycles, both ETFs have exhibited sensitivity to interest-rate movements, with price behavior tied to shifts in long-term yields. TLT’s diversified holdings across multiple maturities provide a smoother response to curve steepening or flattening compared with UTHY’s concentrated 30-year focus. During periods of rate volatility in recent weeks and months, the broader index structure of TLT has supported relative stability in liquidity and trading volume. UTHY’s design delivers more direct exposure to the 30-year benchmark, potentially amplifying responses to specific yield changes at that maturity. Relative positioning favors TLT for investors prioritizing liquidity and diversification within long Treasuries, while UTHY suits those seeking targeted duration at the curve’s longest point.

AI Screener

Tickeron’s AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. Explore the AI Screener to streamline your research process.

Tickeron AI Verdict

Based on observable structural factors, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a modest probabilistic preference to TLT. Its established liquidity profile, broader diversification across long-maturity Treasuries, and extensive track record contribute to lower operational concentration risk relative to UTHY’s single-bond approach. Both vehicles share identical costs and passive mandates, yet TLT’s design aligns more consistently with needs for scalable, liquid long-duration exposure in varied market conditions.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.

Disclaimers and Limitations

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TLT vs. UTHY commentary
Oct 22, 2026

To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is TLT is a StrongBuy and UTHY is a Buy.

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SUMMARIES
A.I.Advisor
a Summary for TLT with price predictions
Oct 21, 2026

TLT's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory

The RSI Indicator for TLT moved out of oversold territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 33 of the 37 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 89%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TLT as a result. In 71 of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TLT just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where TLT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.

Following a +0.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TLT advanced for three days, in 194 of 281 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TLT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.

TLT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for TLT entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

A.I.Advisor
a Summary for UTHY with price predictions
Oct 21, 2026

UTHY's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory

The RSI Indicator for UTHY moved out of oversold territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 21 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 20 of the 21 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UTHY as a result. In 50 of 67 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UTHY just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where UTHY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 22 of 32 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.

Following a +0.95% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UTHY advanced for three days, in 141 of 209 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UTHY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.

UTHY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for UTHY entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technical Analysis
TLTUTHY
RSI
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
89%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Stochastic
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
88%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Momentum
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
75%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
75%
MACD
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
71%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
69%
TrendWeek
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
72%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
68%
TrendMonth
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
82%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
78%
Advances
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
69%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
67%
Declines
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 18 days ago
78%
Bearish Trend 18 days ago
74%
BollingerBands
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Aroon
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
86%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
75%
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