TLT
Price
$80.92Alerts
Change
+$0.04 (+0.05%)
Updated
Nov 11 closing price
Net Assets
48.88B
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
UTHY
Price
$38.21Alerts
Change
+$0.02 (+0.05%)
Updated
Nov 11 closing price
Net Assets
222.42M
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
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TLT vs UTHY

TLT vs UTHY Comparison Chart in %
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A.I.Advisor
Oct 21, 2026

Which ETF would AI Choose? iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs. F/m US Treasury 30 Year Bond ETF (UTHY)

Key Takeaways

  • TLT tracks a broad index of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities greater than 20 years and holds approximately 47 securities, providing diversified exposure within the long-duration segment.
  • UTHY is a single-bond ETF that targets the most recently issued on-the-run 30-year U.S. Treasury bond, resulting in a highly concentrated portfolio typically consisting of one primary security plus cash.
  • Both ETFs maintain identical expense ratios of 0.15% and passive indexing strategies focused exclusively on U.S. Treasuries, eliminating credit risk but exposing investors to interest-rate sensitivity.
  • TLT offers broader liquidity and a longer track record since its 2002 inception, while UTHY, launched in 2023, delivers precise duration targeting at the 30-year point with monthly distributions.
  • Structural differences in holdings create distinct risk profiles: TLT spreads duration exposure across multiple long-maturity issues, whereas UTHY concentrates on the current 30-year benchmark for targeted positioning.
  • Both funds serve investors seeking government-bond exposure without corporate credit, with performance driven by interest-rate expectations, inflation trends, and Federal Reserve policy shifts.

Introduction

Long-duration U.S. Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have gained relevance amid evolving interest-rate environments and portfolio hedging needs. TLT and UTHY both provide pure exposure to extended-maturity government bonds without credit risk, yet they employ different approaches to achieve long-duration objectives. TLT delivers diversified access across the 20-plus-year segment, while UTHY offers concentrated exposure to the benchmark 30-year issue. Investors comparing these vehicles evaluate trade-offs between diversification, liquidity, and precise duration management within the same broad fixed-income category.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Overview

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF seeks to track the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. It holds approximately 47 U.S. Treasury securities with remaining maturities exceeding 20 years. Top holdings consist of various long-maturity Treasury notes and bonds, with sector allocation limited entirely to government debt. The fund charges an expense ratio of 0.15% and operates as a passive, unleveraged index-tracking vehicle. Rebalancing follows the underlying index methodology on a periodic basis. TLT features high liquidity, deep options markets, and a structure that spreads interest-rate risk across multiple issues, distinguishing it as a liquid vehicle for broad long-duration Treasury exposure.

F/m US Treasury 30 Year Bond ETF (UTHY) Overview

The F/m US Treasury 30 Year Bond ETF aims to track the Bloomberg US Treasury Bellwether 30Y Total Return USD Unhedged Index. It maintains a concentrated portfolio typically holding the single most recently issued on-the-run 30-year U.S. Treasury bond plus a nominal cash position, resulting in two holdings. Sector allocation is 100% U.S. government debt. The ETF applies an expense ratio of 0.15% and follows a passive indexing strategy. Launched in 2023, UTHY emphasizes operational efficiency by minimizing rollover costs associated with rolling into new 30-year issues. Its structure enables precise targeting of the 30-year point on the yield curve with monthly dividend distributions.

Industry and Thematic Backdrop

The U.S. Treasury market remains central to global fixed-income strategies, influenced by Federal Reserve monetary policy, inflation expectations, and fiscal developments. Long-duration segments attract investors seeking duration extension for hedging equity volatility or expressing views on rate trajectories. Capital flows into government-bond ETFs reflect ongoing demand for liquid, high-quality duration without credit exposure. Regulatory stability around Treasury issuance supports both diversified and single-security approaches, while macroeconomic drivers such as growth data and geopolitical events continue to shape yield-curve dynamics and sector positioning.

Performance and Positioning Comparison

In recent market cycles, both ETFs have exhibited sensitivity to interest-rate movements, with price behavior tied to shifts in long-term yields. TLT’s diversified holdings across multiple maturities provide a smoother response to curve steepening or flattening compared with UTHY’s concentrated 30-year focus. During periods of rate volatility in recent weeks and months, the broader index structure of TLT has supported relative stability in liquidity and trading volume. UTHY’s design delivers more direct exposure to the 30-year benchmark, potentially amplifying responses to specific yield changes at that maturity. Relative positioning favors TLT for investors prioritizing liquidity and diversification within long Treasuries, while UTHY suits those seeking targeted duration at the curve’s longest point.

AI Screener

Tickeron’s AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. Explore the AI Screener to streamline your research process.

Tickeron AI Verdict

Based on observable structural factors, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a modest probabilistic preference to TLT. Its established liquidity profile, broader diversification across long-maturity Treasuries, and extensive track record contribute to lower operational concentration risk relative to UTHY’s single-bond approach. Both vehicles share identical costs and passive mandates, yet TLT’s design aligns more consistently with needs for scalable, liquid long-duration exposure in varied market conditions.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.

Disclaimers and Limitations

VS
TLT vs. UTHY commentary
Nov 12, 2026

To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is TLT is a Buy and UTHY is a Hold.

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SUMMARIES
A.I.Advisor
a Summary for TLT with price predictions
Nov 10, 2026

TLT in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026

TLT moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 40 of 50 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TLT just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where TLT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.

The 10-day moving average for TLT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.

Following a +1.01% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TLT advanced for three days, in 192 of 279 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 99 of 150 cases where TLT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 66%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for TLT moved out of overbought territory on October 28, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 21 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 17 of the 21 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 81%.

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 46 of 56 cases where TLT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 10, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TLT as a result. In 65 of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TLT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.

TLT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

A.I.Advisor
a Summary for UTHY with price predictions
Nov 10, 2026

UTHY in downward trend: price may drop because broke its higher Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026

UTHY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In 22 of the 27 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at 81%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for UTHY moved out of overbought territory on October 28, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 18 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 14 of the 18 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 78%.

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 32 of 42 cases where UTHY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 10, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UTHY as a result. In 46 of 68 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UTHY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UTHY just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where UTHY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 18 of 32 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.

UTHY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for UTHY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 6 of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.

Following a +1.06% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UTHY advanced for three days, in 141 of 209 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 69 of 121 cases where UTHY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 57%.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technical Analysis
TLTUTHY
RSI
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
81%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
78%
Stochastic
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
82%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
76%
Momentum
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
69%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
68%
MACD
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
62%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
56%
TrendWeek
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
82%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
77%
TrendMonth
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
72%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
71%
Advances
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 7 days ago
69%
Bullish Trend 7 days ago
67%
Declines
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 9 days ago
80%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
75%
BollingerBands
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
80%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
81%
Aroon
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
66%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
57%
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