TLT
Price
$80.05
Change
+$0.08 (+0.10%)
Updated
Oct 16 closing price
Net Assets
48.69B
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
VGLT
Price
$51.39
Change
+$0.03 (+0.06%)
Updated
Oct 16 closing price
Net Assets
10.66B
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
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TLT vs VGLT

TLT vs VGLT Comparison Chart in %
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A.I.Advisor
Oct 16, 2026

Which ETF would AI Choose? iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs. Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT)

Key Takeaways

  • Both ETFs deliver targeted exposure to long-duration U.S. Treasury bonds, making them direct alternatives for investors seeking government fixed-income duration.
  • TLT tracks the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index with approximately 47 holdings, while VGLT follows the Bloomberg U.S. Long Treasury Bond Index with about 101 holdings.
  • Expense ratios differ materially: TLT charges 0.15 percent annually compared with VGLT’s 0.03 percent, creating a persistent cost advantage for the latter.
  • Both funds maintain 100 percent allocation to U.S. Treasuries, resulting in identical sector exposure but modest differences in maturity and duration profiles.
  • Structural liquidity favors TLT due to significantly higher average daily trading volume, while VGLT offers greater internal diversification through a larger number of bond positions.
  • In recent market cycles, performance differentials have been driven primarily by index construction nuances and cost drag rather than thematic or sector-specific factors.

Introduction

Long-term U.S. Treasury ETFs have gained renewed attention amid evolving interest-rate expectations and shifts in monetary policy. TLT and VGLT both provide investors with concentrated exposure to extended-maturity government bonds, serving similar objectives of duration management, income generation, and portfolio ballast. They compete directly within the long-government category, offering alternative implementations of broadly comparable strategies rather than differentiated thematic or active approaches. Investors evaluating these vehicles typically weigh trade-offs in cost efficiency, liquidity, and index methodology when positioning for rate-sensitive fixed-income allocations.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Overview

TLT seeks to track the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, which includes publicly issued U.S. Treasury securities with remaining maturities greater than 20 years. The fund holds approximately 47 individual Treasury bonds, with the top 10 positions accounting for roughly 40 percent of assets. All holdings are U.S. Treasuries, resulting in 100 percent allocation to the government sector. TLT employs a passive, physically replicated strategy with monthly rebalancing aligned to index changes. Its expense ratio stands at 0.15 percent. The ETF is known for deep liquidity and a robust options market, characteristics that distinguish it among long-duration Treasury products.

Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) Overview

VGLT aims to replicate the Bloomberg U.S. Long Treasury Bond Index, covering U.S. Treasury securities with maturities generally exceeding 10 years and emphasizing longer-term components. The fund maintains approximately 101 bond holdings, providing broader internal diversification than many peers. Exposure remains 100 percent to U.S. Treasuries. VGLT follows a passive, index-sampling approach with monthly distributions and rebalancing to track index constituents. Its expense ratio is 0.03 percent. The structure prioritizes cost efficiency while delivering comparable long-duration government bond exposure.

Industry and Thematic Backdrop

The long-duration Treasury segment remains sensitive to macroeconomic drivers including Federal Reserve policy, inflation trends, and fiscal developments. Capital flows into government bond ETFs often reflect expectations around interest-rate paths and portfolio hedging needs. Regulatory stability for U.S. Treasuries supports consistent issuance and liquidity, while broader fixed-income sector risks center on duration extension during periods of declining yields. Both ETFs operate within this environment, where shifts in rate volatility or yield-curve dynamics influence relative performance without altering their core structural mandates.

Performance and Positioning Comparison

In recent market cycles, both ETFs have exhibited high correlation driven by shared sensitivity to interest-rate movements. TLT’s narrower maturity focus and higher expense ratio have contributed to modestly wider tracking dispersion compared with VGLT in certain periods. VGLT’s larger holding count and lower costs have supported relatively tighter adherence to its benchmark during rate-driven rotations. Liquidity differentials position TLT as the preferred vehicle for tactical or large-scale positioning, while VGLT appeals for longer-term, cost-conscious allocations seeking similar duration exposure.

AI Screener

Tickeron’s AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. Investors seeking data-driven insights on ETFs like TLT and VGLT may benefit from exploring the platform’s analytical capabilities.

Tickeron AI Verdict

Based on observable structural factors including lower expense ratio, comparable diversification, and consistent index-tracking methodology, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a higher probability of preference to VGLT for most long-term investors prioritizing cost efficiency within the long-Treasury category.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.

Disclaimers and Limitations

VS
TLT vs. VGLT commentary
Oct 17, 2026

To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is TLT is a Hold and VGLT is a Hold.

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SUMMARIES
A.I.Advisor
a Summary for TLT with price predictions
Oct 16, 2026

TLT's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory

The RSI Oscillator for TLT moved out of oversold territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 31 of the 37 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 84%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TLT as a result. In 71 of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TLT just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where TLT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.

Following a +1.47% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TLT advanced for three days, in 194 of 280 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TLT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.

TLT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for TLT entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

A.I.Advisor
a Summary for VGLT with price predictions
Oct 16, 2026

VGLT's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory

The RSI Oscillator for VGLT moved out of oversold territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 31 of the 36 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 86%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on VGLT as a result. In 64 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for VGLT just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where VGLT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.

Following a +1.36% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VGLT advanced for three days, in 196 of 289 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VGLT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.

VGLT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for VGLT entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technical Analysis
TLTVGLT
RSI
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
84%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
86%
Stochastic
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
82%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
85%
Momentum
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
75%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
71%
MACD
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
71%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
67%
TrendWeek
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
73%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
71%
TrendMonth
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
82%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
79%
Advances
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
69%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
68%
Declines
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 12 days ago
78%
Bearish Trend 12 days ago
74%
BollingerBands
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
89%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
89%
Aroon
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
85%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
82%
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