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TRGP vs WMB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) vs. Williams Companies (WMB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Targa Resources (TRGP) has delivered significantly higher year-to-date returns in 2026, fueled by record Permian Basin volumes and aggressive infrastructure expansion.
- Williams Companies (WMB) offers a larger market capitalization, a higher dividend yield, and lower price volatility, appealing to income-oriented investors.
- Both companies operate in the oil and gas midstream sector, but TRGP is more heavily weighted toward natural gas liquids (NGL) processing and exports, while WMB dominates interstate natural gas transmission.
- Analysts at BMO Capital Markets have assigned Outperform ratings to both stocks, citing rising global electricity demand as a durable growth catalyst for natural gas infrastructure.
- TRGP's forward earnings growth estimates outpace WMB's, though WMB compensates with a steadier fee-based revenue model and a dividend track record dating back to 1974.
- Institutional ownership is high for both names — above 87% — signaling strong professional conviction across the midstream space.
Introduction
The midstream energy sector has captured considerable attention in recent months as natural gas demand rises on the back of LNG (liquefied natural gas) export growth, data center electrification, and industrial reshoring. Two of the most prominent publicly traded names in this space — TRGP and WMB — offer contrasting profiles for traders and investors. Targa Resources Corp. is a high-growth, Permian-focused midstream operator with heavy exposure to NGLs, while Williams Companies is a larger, more diversified natural gas infrastructure giant with an expansive interstate pipeline network. This comparison examines their recent performance, business drivers, and relative positioning to help market participants assess which stock aligns with their portfolio strategy.
TRGP Overview and Recent Performance
Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) is a leading North American midstream energy company that gathers, compresses, treats, processes, and transports natural gas and NGLs. The company's operations are anchored in the Permian Basin — the most productive hydrocarbon region in the United States — and extend to its premier NGL hub in Mont Belvieu, Texas, along with LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) export facilities on the Gulf Coast. Over recent quarters, Targa has posted record adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), reaching approximately $4.96 billion for full-year 2025, a 20% increase over the prior year. The company has also announced an aggressive capital expenditure program for 2026, including multiple new processing plants, fractionators, and pipeline projects, underpinning an 11% expected increase in adjusted EBITDA to a range of $5.4 billion to $5.6 billion. Targa's stock has reflected this momentum, with year-to-date 2026 gains exceeding 28% as of mid-year. The company expects to recommend a 25% increase to its annual common dividend in 2026, lifting it to $5.00 per share, while continuing opportunistic share repurchases with over $1.3 billion remaining under its buyback authorization.
WMB Overview and Recent Performance
The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB) is one of the largest energy infrastructure firms in the United States, operating the Transco pipeline — the nation's largest-volume interstate natural gas pipeline system — along with extensive gathering and processing assets in the Northeast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Rocky Mountain region. Williams has consistently delivered stable, fee-based earnings that underpin a reliable dividend, which it has paid every quarter since 1974. In recent quarters, the company has raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance multiple times, reaching a midpoint of $7.75 billion for 2025. Williams has also made strategic moves tied to rising electricity demand, including the commercialization of Socrates, a $1.6 billion power innovation project designed to serve AI-driven data center growth in Ohio. The company's market capitalization of roughly $89 billion makes it nearly twice the size of Targa. Year-to-date 2026, WMB has returned approximately 24%, with a trailing twelve-month dividend yield near 2.9%. The company's credit profile also stands out following an upgrade to BBB+ from S&P, reflecting a strengthening balance sheet.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both TRGP and WMB operate in the midstream energy sector, their business models diverge in important ways. Targa is fundamentally a gathering, processing, and NGL logistics company — its fortunes are closely tied to Permian Basin production volumes and the global market for NGLs and LPG exports. Williams, by contrast, is primarily a transmission and pipeline company; its Transco system generates predictable, regulated or contracted fee revenue that is less sensitive to commodity price swings. This structural difference is reflected in their volatility profiles: TRGP exhibits higher price volatility (approximately 8.6%) compared to WMB (roughly 6.6%), translating into larger swings but also more explosive upside during bullish energy cycles.
On the growth front, TRGP holds a clear advantage. Consensus analyst estimates project TRGP's earnings per share to grow at roughly 25% annually over the next five years, compared to approximately 11% for WMB. However, WMB offsets lower growth with a meaningfully higher dividend yield — around 2.9% versus TRGP's approximately 1.7% — and a corporate history that includes uninterrupted quarterly dividends spanning more than 50 years. From a valuation perspective, TRGP trades at a higher price-to-earnings multiple on a trailing basis, though its forward P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) compresses considerably given the steep expected earnings ramp. Market sentiment for both names remains positive, with BMO Capital Markets initiating Outperform ratings on each in late 2025, and institutional ownership for both stocks exceeding 87%.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend data, momentum signals, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor TRGP for growth-oriented strategies in the current market environment. The stock's stronger relative momentum, higher earnings growth trajectory, and robust volume-driven catalysts in the Permian Basin present a compelling trend-following case. However, for risk-averse or income-focused strategies, WMB would likely be the preferred candidate, given its lower volatility, higher dividend yield, investment-grade credit rating, and decades-long track record of capital returns. The AI's assessment would ultimately depend on the specific strategy and risk parameters selected by each investor — underscoring the value of using automated tools like Tickeron's AI bots to evaluate both names within a customized, data-driven framework.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is TRGP is a StrongBuy and WMB is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
TRGP’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileWMB’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- TRGP’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- WMB’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
TRGP’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WMB’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- TRGP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 2 bearish.
- WMB’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
TRGP (@Oil & Gas Pipelines) experienced а -0.56% price change this week, while WMB (@Oil & Gas Pipelines) price change was +0.84% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Pipelines industry was +1.18%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.83%, and the average quarterly price growth was +23.00%.
Reported Earning Dates
TRGP is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
WMB is expected to report earnings on Aug 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Pipelines (+1.18% weekly)Oil & Gas Pipelines industry includes companies that transport natural gas and crude oil through pipelines. These companies also collect and market the fuels. The pipeline segment could be considered as a midstream operation – functioning as a link between the upstream and downstream operations in the oil and gas industry. Some of the largest U.S. pipeline players include Enterprise Products Partners L.P, TC Energy Corporation and Energy Transfer, L.P.
| TRGP | WMB | TRGP / WMB | |
| Capitalization | 60.4B | 90.5B | 67% |
| EBITDA | 5.22B | 7.67B | 68% |
| Gain YTD | 54.012 | 24.909 | 217% |
| P/E Ratio | 28.74 | 32.46 | 89% |
| Revenue | 16.6B | 11.9B | 139% |
| Total Cash | 100M | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 19.1B | 30.3B | 63% |
TRGP | WMB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 22 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 35 Fair valued | 25 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 6 | 2 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 15 | 43 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 4 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 45 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 28 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WMB's Valuation (25) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry is in the same range as TRGP (35) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that WMB’s stock grew similarly to TRGP’s over the last 12 months.
WMB's Profit vs Risk Rating (2) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry is in the same range as TRGP (6) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that WMB’s stock grew similarly to TRGP’s over the last 12 months.
TRGP's SMR Rating (15) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as WMB (43) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry. This means that TRGP’s stock grew similarly to WMB’s over the last 12 months.
TRGP's Price Growth Rating (4) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WMB (45) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry. This means that TRGP’s stock grew somewhat faster than WMB’s over the last 12 months.
WMB's P/E Growth Rating (45) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry is in the same range as TRGP (55) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that WMB’s stock grew similarly to TRGP’s over the last 12 months.
| TRGP | WMB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 52% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 41% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 68% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 42% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 12 days ago 43% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 53% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 60% |
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TRGP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TRGP has been closely correlated with OKE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TRGP jumps, then OKE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TRGP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRGP | 100% | -1.49% | ||
| OKE - TRGP | 73% Closely correlated | -0.08% | ||
| KMI - TRGP | 59% Loosely correlated | +0.27% | ||
| WMB - TRGP | 57% Loosely correlated | -1.66% | ||
| PAGP - TRGP | 56% Loosely correlated | -0.23% | ||
| KNTK - TRGP | 55% Loosely correlated | -0.92% | ||
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WMB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WMB has been closely correlated with KMI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WMB jumps, then KMI could also see price increases.