VGT
Price
$111.18Alerts
Change
-$1.91 (-1.69%)
Updated
Nov 13 closing price
Net Assets
138.43B
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
XLK
Price
$170.28Alerts
Change
-$3.49 (-2.01%)
Updated
Nov 13 closing price
Net Assets
112.88B
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
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VGT vs XLK

VGT vs XLK Comparison Chart in %
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A.I.Advisor
Nov 03, 2026

Which ETF would AI Choose? Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) vs. Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK)

Key Takeaways

  • Different indexes, similar goals: VGT tracks the broad MSCI US Investable Market Information Technology Index, while XLK tracks the narrower S&P 500–based Technology Select Sector Index.
  • Diversification gap: VGT holds roughly 322 stocks across large-, mid-, and small-cap tech, whereas XLK holds about 76 large-cap names, making XLK meaningfully more concentrated.
  • Near-identical cost structure: Both are passive index funds with minimal fees — 0.09% for VGT and 0.08% for XLK.
  • Shared mega-cap anchors: NVDA, AAPL, and MSFT dominate both portfolios, driving highly correlated performance.
  • Tickeron AI Verdict: VGT is the favored ticker for its broader diversification and lower single-name concentration.

Introduction

VGT and XLK are two of the most widely held technology-focused ETFs in the market, and they compete directly for the same investor dollar. Both are passively managed, ultra-low-cost vehicles designed to deliver concentrated exposure to the U.S. information technology sector. Despite overlapping heavily in their largest holdings, they are not identical: VGT reaches across the full market-cap spectrum of tech names, while XLK confines itself to the technology constituents of the S&P 500. For investors weighing this ETF comparison, the choice comes down to a trade-off between broader sector exposure and a more concentrated bet on the largest, most liquid tech leaders.

Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) Overview

VGT is a passively managed fund that seeks to track the MSCI US Investable Market Information Technology Index, which includes large-, mid-, and small-cap U.S. technology companies classified under the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS). The fund holds roughly 322 stocks, providing a comparatively broad footprint across the technology sector.

Its top holdings are NVDA (NVIDIA), AAPL (Apple), and MSFT (Microsoft), which together represent more than 40% of assets, followed by AVGO (Broadcom), MU (Micron), AMD, CSCO (Cisco), PLTR (Palantir), INTC (Intel), and LRCX (Lam Research). The top ten names account for roughly 60% of the portfolio. Sector allocation is nearly 100% information technology, with a small residual in financials and industrials. The expense ratio is 0.09%, and the fund uses a full-replication, market-cap-weighted indexing approach.

Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) Overview

XLK is also a passively managed fund, but it tracks the Technology Select Sector Index, which is limited to the technology companies within the S&P 500. As a result, it holds far fewer positions — roughly 76 large-cap stocks — and carries no meaningful small- or mid-cap exposure.

The portfolio is anchored by the same three giants — NVDA, AAPL, and MSFT — followed by AVGO, AMD, MU, INTC, PLTR, CSCO, and LRCX, with the top ten holdings representing roughly 61% of assets. Sector allocation is essentially 100% information technology. The fund carries an expense ratio of 0.08% and employs a replication strategy, investing substantially all of its assets in the underlying index constituents.

Industry and Thematic Backdrop

Both funds are levered to the same powerful structural themes: artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and the semiconductor buildout that underpins them. Capital flows into AI-related infrastructure have been a dominant sector catalyst in recent market cycles, supporting earnings growth at the largest chipmakers and hardware vendors that sit at the top of both portfolios. At the same time, concentration risk has grown as a handful of mega-cap names drive an outsized share of index returns. Interest-rate expectations remain a key swing factor, because richly valued technology equities are sensitive to changes in the discount rate applied to future earnings. Regulatory scrutiny of large technology platforms and periodic cyclical pullbacks in memory-chip pricing represent additional risks shared by both funds.

Performance and Positioning Comparison

Because they share many of the same largest holdings, VGT and XLK have exhibited highly correlated returns over recent weeks and months, with relative positioning rather than absolute performance serving as the main differentiator. XLK's narrower large-cap roster has tended to amplify moves in the biggest tech names, giving it slightly higher responsiveness when mega-cap leadership is strong. VGT's inclusion of mid- and small-cap technology companies provides a modest cushion against single-stock shocks and greater participation in a broader rotation within the sector. Volatility differences between the two funds are generally small, but VGT's wider breadth makes its relative positioning marginally more balanced for investors seeking diversified sector exposure.

AI Screener

Tickeron's AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. Explore the AI Screener to refine your own technology-sector watchlist today.

Tickeron AI Verdict

Based on observable structural characteristics, Tickeron's AI currently favors VGT. While XLK offers a marginally lower expense ratio and slightly deeper liquidity in its concentrated large-cap lineup, VGT's broader 322-stock portfolio provides more diversified sector exposure with lower single-name concentration risk. Given that both funds are anchored by the same mega-cap technology leaders, VGT's additional breadth across mid- and small-cap names is likely to offer a more balanced risk profile over a full market cycle without sacrificing meaningful exposure to the dominant sector themes.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.

Disclaimers and Limitations

VS
VGT vs. XLK commentary
Nov 14, 2026

To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is VGT is a Hold and XLK is a Hold.

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SUMMARIES
A.I.Advisor
a Summary for VGT with price predictions
Nov 13, 2026

VGT's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory

The RSI Oscillator for VGT moved out of oversold territory on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 23 of the 24 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 51 of 60 cases where VGT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.

Following a +4.60% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VGT advanced for three days, in 335 of 385 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.

VGT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on VGT as a result. In 74 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for VGT turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 40 of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 75%.

VGT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for VGT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VGT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.

The Aroon Indicator for VGT entered a downward trend on November 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

A.I.Advisor
a Summary for XLK with price predictions
Nov 13, 2026

XLK's Indicator enters downward trend

The Aroon Indicator for XLK entered a downward trend on November 13, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 138 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 124 of the 138 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 90%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XLK as a result. In 66 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XLK turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 39 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 80%.

XLK moved below its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for XLK crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where XLK's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 49 of 55 cases where XLK's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.

Following a +5.24% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLK advanced for three days, in 330 of 377 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.

XLK may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technical Analysis
VGTXLK
RSI
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
90%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
90%
Stochastic
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
85%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
89%
Momentum
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
86%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
84%
MACD
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 4 days ago
75%
Bearish Trend 4 days ago
80%
TrendWeek
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
88%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
88%
TrendMonth
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
87%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
87%
Advances
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 6 days ago
87%
Bullish Trend 6 days ago
88%
Declines
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
83%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
82%
BollingerBands
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
86%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
89%
Aroon
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
90%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
90%
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VGT and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VGT has been closely correlated with ONTO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VGT jumps, then ONTO could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To VGT
1D Price
Change %
VGT100%
-1.69%
ONTO - VGT
73%
Closely correlated
-2.89%
Q - VGT
71%
Closely correlated
-3.53%
VSH - VGT
70%
Closely correlated
-4.21%
COHR - VGT
67%
Closely correlated
-6.00%
ANET - VGT
66%
Closely correlated
-4.52%
More

XLK and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XLK has been closely correlated with Q. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XLK jumps, then Q could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To XLK
1D Price
Change %
XLK100%
-2.01%
Q - XLK
72%
Closely correlated
-3.53%
COHR - XLK
68%
Closely correlated
-6.00%
GLW - XLK
68%
Closely correlated
-4.31%
ANET - XLK
67%
Closely correlated
-4.52%
KEYS - XLK
67%
Closely correlated
-2.15%
More
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