Apple is among the largest companies in the world, with a broad portfolio of hardware and software products targeted at consumers and businesses... Show more
Apple's September quarter closes out the company's fiscal 2026 and typically sets the tone for the crucial holiday selling season. This report carries added weight because it is the first under new CEO John Ternus and includes the initial sales window for the iPhone 18 Pro lineup. It also arrives as Apple navigates rising memory costs and supply constraints across iPhone, Mac, and iPad. With the stock trading near record levels and a premium valuation, the market will look beyond the headline numbers to guidance and margin commentary for signs that Apple can sustain its recent double-digit growth momentum.
Apple has already set the framework for this report. During its fiscal third-quarter earnings call, management guided to total revenue growth of 9% to 11% year over year for the September quarter. Given that Apple recorded $102.5 billion in revenue in the same quarter a year earlier, that guidance translates to roughly $111.7 billion to $113.7 billion.
Wall Street consensus estimates compiled in early October pointed slightly higher, to around $115 billion in revenue. On profitability, the company guided to a gross margin of 47% to 48%, a step down from the 50.1% reported in the June quarter, which benefited from roughly two percentage points of tariff refunds. Management also projected operating expenses between $19.1 billion and $19.4 billion.
Several key metrics will shape how investors interpret the results. iPhone revenue is expected to grow in the mid-teens on a year-over-year basis, despite foreign-exchange headwinds of about 2.5 percentage points and intensifying supply constraints. Services revenue, which set a June-quarter record of $30.74 billion in the prior period, is expected to grow at a similar rate to the June quarter. Analysts will also monitor Mac and iPad performance, both of which faced component-supply pressures during the quarter.
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Sentiment heading into Apple's report is cautious but constructive. The stock has been trading near record levels, and its valuation leaves limited room for disappointment, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio around 38 based on trailing results. Some options-market data indicated that institutional investors were trimming exposure ahead of the event, a sign of de-risking rather than outright pessimism.
Key risk factors include the potential for a softer-than-expected holiday-quarter outlook, gross-margin pressure from higher memory prices, and any indication that supply constraints are weighing more heavily than anticipated on iPhone, Mac, or iPad sales. Conversely, evidence of strong early iPhone 18 Pro demand or resilient Services growth could reinforce confidence in the company's trajectory under its new leadership.
The most important signal in this report will be Apple's guidance for the December quarter, which is typically the company's largest of the year. That period will include a full quarter of iPhone 18 Pro sales plus the launch of the iPhone Duo, Apple's first foldable device, which goes on sale October 23. Investors will listen closely for management's confidence in holiday demand across the new product lineup.
Margins are another area of focus. Apple has flagged that higher memory costs will pressure profitability, partially offset by lower costs for certain non-memory components and a favorable product mix. How management frames the gross-margin trajectory into fiscal 2027 will be closely scrutinized given the stock's elevated valuation.
Finally, Services remains the engine of Apple's higher-margin recurring revenue, having grown 12.1% year over year to a record $30.74 billion in the June quarter. Sustained growth in subscriptions and the active installed base will be a key barometer of the company's longer-term earnings durability, alongside ongoing foreign-exchange volatility and component-supply dynamics across its hardware categories.
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a manufacturer of mobile communication, media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players
Industry ComputerPeripherals