Amazon is the leading online retailer and marketplace for third party sellers... Show more
Amazon's third-quarter report carries outsized weight because it tests two of the market's biggest questions at once: whether AI (artificial intelligence) demand can keep AWS growing at a breakneck pace, and whether the company's enormous data-center spending will pressure profitability. AWS generated $16.6 billion of Amazon's $27.5 billion in operating income last quarter, making it the company's most important profit engine. With AWS revenue growth accelerating for five straight quarters and a record order backlog, this report offers a fresh read on cloud demand heading into the critical holiday retail season and a heavy year of capital investment.
Consensus estimates call for Amazon to report earnings of roughly $1.97 per share on about $202 billion in revenue for the third quarter, which ended September 30, 2026. That would represent roughly 12% year-over-year revenue growth from the $180.17 billion reported in the same period last year, while EPS (earnings per share) would be nearly flat against the prior year's $1.95.
Management's own guidance is closely aligned with the high end of these expectations. The company projected third-quarter net sales between $197 billion and $202 billion, representing growth of 9% to 12%, and operating income between $22.5 billion and $26.5 billion, a sharp increase from $17.4 billion a year earlier. Amazon noted that a Prime Day timing shift and foreign-exchange headwinds of about 80 basis points would weigh modestly on the comparison.
Historically, Amazon has beaten consensus estimates consistently, and the stock has been volatile around its reports, rising nearly 20% in the days around its July 30 earnings call. AWS growth, which reached 36.7% last quarter, remains the single most closely watched metric.
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Sentiment heading into this report is constructive but focused on capital spending discipline. Amazon shares have been supported by accelerating AWS growth, and analysts have raised price targets following the last quarter, with JPMorgan lifting its target to $365 and naming Amazon a top pick. However, the stock remains sensitive to any signal that AI-related spending is outpacing returns. Management raised its 2026 capital expenditure plan to about $220 billion from roughly $200 billion, citing higher memory-chip costs, and acknowledged that free cash flow will remain under pressure. A further upward revision could test investor patience, while sustained AWS growth above 35% would likely reinforce confidence in the AI-driven demand story.
Beyond the headline numbers, several factors will shape how investors interpret Amazon's third-quarter report.
First is the trajectory of AWS. Last quarter's 36.7% growth was the fifth consecutive quarter of acceleration, driven by core workloads and strong AI adoption. The company's AWS backlog rose nearly 2.5 times year over year to about $496 billion. Investors will watch whether that momentum continues and whether management signals that demand still exceeds available capacity.
Second is capital spending. Amazon has already raised its 2026 target to about $220 billion, and any increase in the fourth-quarter outlook would directly pressure free cash flow, which measures cash left after capital expenditures.
Third is operating income guidance for the fourth quarter. Amazon's retail business generates an outsized share of sales during the holiday period, but rising transportation and labor costs remain a concern after the company raised minimum pay for full-time U.S. operations workers to $20 an hour.
Finally, investors will assess cost trends across fulfillment and logistics. Fuel inflation and limited driver capacity raised transportation expenses last quarter, and management's commentary on these pressures will help frame margin expectations for the year ahead.
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Industry InternetRetail