Amazon.com (AMZN) Stock Price, Chart, Fundamentals & AI Forecast
Amazon is the leading online retailer and marketplace for third party sellers... Show more
Amazon.com (AMZN) Q4 2025 Earnings Recap: Revenue Beats, Shares Slide on Capex Shock
Key Takeaways
- Amazon reported Q4 2025 net sales of $213.4 billion, up 14% year-over-year, beating consensus estimates of $211.3 billion.
- Diluted EPS came in at $1.95, slightly missing expectations of $1.97, while net income rose to $21.2 billion.
- AWS revenue surged 24% to $35.6 billion, the fastest growth in 13 quarters, exceeding forecasts of $34.9 billion.
- Full-year 2025 net sales reached $716.9 billion, up 12%, with operating income at $80.0 billion.
- Company guided for Q1 2026 sales of $173.5–$178.5 billion and operating income of $16.5–$21.5 billion; announced ~$200 billion capex in 2026 for AI and infrastructure.
- Shares plunged over 10% in after-hours trading amid concerns over elevated spending plans.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Amazon's Q4 2025 results cap a year of robust growth amid intensifying competition in e-commerce and cloud computing. The report highlights accelerating AWS momentum driven by AI demand, alongside steady gains in advertising and retail. Investors closely watch these figures as AWS profitability and capex efficiency signal Amazon's positioning in the AI race against Microsoft and Google. With full-year sales up 12% to $716.9 billion, the earnings underscore resilience in consumer spending and operational improvements, though surging infrastructure investments raise questions on near-term margins. This release shapes views on Amazon's long-term dominance in cloud and digital services.
Earnings Expectations or Reported Results
Amazon reported Q4 2025 net sales of $213.4 billion, surpassing consensus estimates of around $211.3 billion and reflecting 14% year-over-year growth (12% excluding foreign exchange). Diluted earnings per share stood at $1.95, narrowly missing the $1.97 forecast but up from $1.86 a year earlier, with net income at $21.2 billion. Operating income reached $25.0 billion, up from $21.2 billion in the prior year.
AWS delivered standout results with $35.6 billion in revenue, a 24% increase that beat expectations of $34.9 billion and marked the segment's fastest growth in 13 quarters. Advertising revenue grew 22%, while stores saw brisk expansion. For full-year 2025, net sales totaled $716.9 billion and operating income $80.0 billion. Guidance for Q1 2026 projects net sales of $173.5–$178.5 billion (11%–15% growth) and operating income of $16.5–$21.5 billion. The company anticipates approximately $200 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, primarily in AWS for AI, chips, robotics, and satellites, far exceeding prior analyst forecasts of $146.6 billion.
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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Amazon shares dropped more than 10% in extended trading following the Q4 release, erasing recent gains amid the earnings miss on EPS and surprise $200 billion capex guidance for 2026. Investors interpreted the revenue beat and AWS acceleration positively but focused on spending pressures potentially squeezing margins and free cash flow. Sentiment turned cautious, with concerns over AI infrastructure costs overshadowing operational strengths, leading to heightened volatility as markets weighed long-term AI bets against short-term profitability.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Following Q4 results, Amazon's trajectory hinges on execution amid aggressive investments. Q1 2026 guidance signals continued sales momentum at 11%–15% growth, but operating income of $16.5–$21.5 billion incorporates higher costs from Amazon Leo scaling, quick commerce, and international pricing. The $200 billion 2026 capex plan, mainly for AWS capacity in AI workloads, chips, robotics, and Project Kuiper satellites, aims for strong long-term returns but pressures near-term free cash flow, which declined to $11.2 billion TTM.
Investors should track AWS growth sustainability, as 24% Q4 expansion reflects non-AI and AI demand outpacing supply. Margins in cloud (around 35% in recent quarters) and advertising will be critical amid competition from Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud. Retail trends, including grocery delivery expansion to 150 million U.S. customers and faster Prime speeds, offer demand signals. Broader dynamics like consumer spending resilience, tariff impacts, and AI monetization via tools like Rufus (used by 300 million customers) remain focal points. Upcoming catalysts include capacity ramps, Prime Video ad growth, and Whole Foods expansions, balancing cost discipline with innovation.
AMZN's RSI Indicator stays in oversold zone for 5 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMZN advanced for three days, in of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
AMZN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on February 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AMZN as a result. In of 76 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AMZN turned negative on February 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 55 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 55 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
AMZN moved below its 50-day moving average on February 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AMZN crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on February 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMZN declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for AMZN entered a downward trend on February 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AMZN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AMZN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.192) is normal, around the industry mean (93.605). P/E Ratio (27.725) is within average values for comparable stocks, (50.321). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.817) is also within normal values, averaging (2.886). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.044) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.002) is also within normal values, averaging (13.396).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a provider of on-line retail shopping services
Industry InternetRetail