Astrana Health (ASTH) Earnings Date & Reports

Key Takeaways

• Astrana Health (ASTH) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, November 5, 2026, after the market close.
• Wall Street expects revenue of roughly $1.02 billion, near the midpoint of the company's own guidance of $1.0 billion to $1.03 billion.
• Management has guided to third-quarter adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $72.5 million to $77.5 million.
• Investors will focus on medical cost trends, membership growth, and progress integrating the Prospect acquisition.
• The stock has faced added scrutiny from a GlassHouse Research short report and related securities-law inquiries, raising the stakes for this quarter's print.
• For additional context on this ticker, explore Astrana Health's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast.
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Earnings Context and Why It Matters

Astrana Health is a physician-centric, technology-powered, risk-bearing healthcare management company. Unlike a traditional fee-for-service operator, it assumes financial risk for patient populations, which means medical cost trends directly shape its profitability. The third-quarter report matters because it tests whether the company can sustain rapid revenue growth while keeping those costs in check. Second-quarter revenue rose 49% year over year to $972.5 million, and full-year 2026 revenue is guided to $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion. With the Prospect integration underway and heavy investment in its AI-native operating system, this earnings release will clarify whether Astrana can convert scale into durable margins.

Earnings Expectations

Consensus estimates point to third-quarter 2026 revenue of about $1.02 billion, consistent with the company's guided range of $1.0 billion to $1.03 billion. Management has also guided to adjusted EBITDA of $72.5 million to $77.5 million for the quarter, reflecting its expectation of continued growth in full-risk contracts and favorable cost performance.

For reference, Astrana reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $972.5 million, slightly below the roughly $985.3 million consensus at the time, alongside adjusted EPS (earnings per share) of $0.80, up from $0.55 a year earlier. Following that report, the company raised its full-year outlook, guiding to revenue of $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $255 million to $280 million. Analysts will watch whether third-quarter results confirm that trajectory, particularly given elevated attention on reserve estimates and medical cost trends.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

Sentiment heading into the report is mixed. Astrana Health shares have rallied strongly over the past year but recently came under pressure after GlassHouse Research published a short report arguing that the company's profitability depends on an unusually large stack of management estimates. The stock fell about 8% following that report, and several law firms announced investigations into potential securities-law violations. At the same time, sell-side sentiment remains broadly constructive: the analyst consensus is a Strong Buy with an average 12-month price target near $51.67, and firms including Barclays, Truist, BTIG, and Oppenheimer have raised targets or initiated coverage in recent months. This backdrop raises the stakes for the earnings print, as investors weigh strong growth and raised guidance against questions about cost trends, reserve assumptions, and integration execution.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

Beyond the headline revenue and adjusted EBITDA figures, investors should watch several forward-looking signals. Medical cost trends and the medical loss ratio (the share of premiums spent on patient care) will be central, since any unfavorable shift could pressure margins in a risk-bearing model. Commentary on the Prospect integration and deleveraging progress will also matter, given management has described the balance sheet as improving ahead of plan.

Another area of focus is membership and contract growth across full-risk arrangements, which drive the company's revenue trajectory and its path toward the upper end of full-year guidance. Finally, the market will be listening for any response to the short-seller report and whether management can reassure investors on the integrity of its reserve and cost estimates.

Regulatory and legal developments tied to the announced investigations could also influence sentiment independently of operating results. As always, the tone of guidance for the fourth quarter and any update to the full-year outlook will likely matter as much as the third-quarter numbers themselves.

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