Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings (BAER) Earnings Date & Reports

Key Takeaways

• Bridger Aerospace is scheduled to report its third quarter 2026 results on November 16, 2026, after the market close, covering the period ended September 30, 2026.
• Wall Street consensus points to earnings of roughly $0.58 per share on revenue near $80–83 million, reflecting the seasonally strong peak wildfire quarter.
• Management has reiterated full-year 2026 guidance of $135–145 million in revenue and $55–60 million in Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization).
• In last year's third quarter, Bridger delivered revenue of $67.89 million and EPS of $0.37, beating expectations and setting a high bar for this year's comparison.
• Bridger's shares have been under significant pressure, trading well below their 52-week high and far below the average analyst price target.
• For more detail on Bridger Aerospace's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast, visit the dedicated ticker pages for the latest updates and analysis.
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Earnings Context and Why It Matters

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER) is one of the largest aerial firefighting companies in the United States, operating Super Scooper aircraft and Air Attack surveillance planes. Because wildfire demand is highly seasonal, the third quarter is by far the company's most important reporting period, historically generating a disproportionate share of annual revenue and profitability. This quarter's results will reveal whether the 2026 fire season delivered the fleet utilization and contract performance needed to support management's full-year targets. For investors, the report also serves as a key test of recent strategic initiatives, including longer-duration government task orders and diversification into geophysical surveying services.

Earnings Expectations

Analysts expect Bridger Aerospace to report a strong seasonal rebound in the third quarter of 2026. Consensus estimates call for earnings of approximately $0.58 per share on revenue in the range of $80–83 million, according to aggregated analyst forecasts. These figures reflect the peak wildfire season, when aerial firefighting hours and billings typically surge.

The comparison comes against a demanding prior-year period. In the third quarter of 2025, Bridger reported revenue of $67.89 million and EPS of $0.37, beating consensus at the time. A meaningful year-over-year improvement in revenue would align with management's reiterated 2026 outlook, which projects full-year revenue of $135–145 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $55–60 million.

Investors will also be watching operating costs, fleet utilization, and the contribution of non-seasonal initiatives such as the multi-year Texas A&M Forest Service aircraft contract and the recently announced Metatek Group aircraft services agreement, both of which are expected to ramp more materially in 2027.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

Sentiment heading into this report is cautious. Bridger's shares have fallen sharply from their 52-week high of $3.44 and have traded below the $0.30 level in recent sessions, even as the consensus analyst rating remains a "Strong Buy" with an average price target of roughly $3.37. The disconnect between analyst targets and the current share price reflects investor concerns about liquidity, a substantial debt load, and a history of earnings misses in recent quarters.

In the most recent quarter, Bridger missed expectations on both revenue and EPS, reporting revenue of $30.49 million versus the $37.04 million consensus and a loss of $0.13 per share versus an expected $0.03 loss. The stock reacted negatively. A strong seasonal quarter could help rebuild credibility, while another miss would likely reinforce the bearish narrative around the company's cash position and capital structure.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

Beyond the headline numbers, investors should focus on several forward-looking signals. First, management's guidance for full-year 2026 remains the central reference point. If third-quarter performance leaves the company on track for $135–145 million in revenue and $55–60 million in Adjusted EBITDA, that would support the view that the peak season delivered as expected.

Second, watch the balance sheet. Bridger ended its second quarter with roughly $7.2 million in cash, down from $31.4 million at the start of the year, reflecting seasonal working capital needs and continued investment in fleet readiness. Management has pointed to available credit facility capacity as a mitigating factor, but liquidity and debt servicing costs remain closely watched risks.

Third, monitor diversification progress. The company's longer-duration U.S. Forest Service task orders and the Texas A&M contract signal a push toward more predictable, less seasonal revenue. However, meaningful financial contributions from these initiatives are not expected until 2027.

Finally, broader industry dynamics matter. Wildfire severity, federal and state firefighting budgets, and competitive contract awards will continue to shape demand for Bridger's aerial firefighting services. Investors will look for any commentary on fleet utilization, cost trends, and contract visibility that clarifies the path beyond the 2026 fire season.

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