Equifax (EFX) Earnings Date & Reports

Key Takeaways

• Equifax reported third quarter 2026 revenue of $1.69 billion, up 10% on a reported basis and 9% in constant currency.
• Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose 11% to $2.26, above the high end of the company's guidance and ahead of the roughly $2.20 consensus estimate.
• Diversified markets revenue grew more than 8%, helping offset a softening U.S. mortgage market late in the quarter.
• Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin expanded 130 basis points excluding FICO royalties, driven by operating leverage and AI-related productivity.
• Management lowered its full-year 2026 revenue outlook by about $80 million on mortgage weakness, while raising its margin-expansion target.
• Shares rallied more than 10% following the release, as investors viewed the results and updated guidance as resilient.

Earnings Context and Why It Matters

Equifax's third quarter report landed at a pivotal moment for the credit data and analytics industry. The company relies heavily on mortgage-related revenue, and 30-year fixed mortgage rates climbed roughly 75 basis points since July, pressuring origination volumes. Against that backdrop, investors were focused on whether Equifax's fast-growing "diversified" business lines—government, talent, and consumer lending—could offset the mortgage slowdown. The results matter because they test Equifax's long-running strategy of shifting toward non-mortgage growth, a key pillar of its medium-term financial framework. The quarter also offered an early read on AI-driven cost savings and margin expansion, both central to the company's investment case.

Reported Results

For the three months ended September 30, 2026, Equifax reported operating revenue of $1.69 billion, up 10% on a reported basis and 9% in constant currency. Net income attributable to Equifax was $211.7 million, up from $160.2 million a year earlier, with diluted earnings per share of $1.79 compared with $1.29 in the prior-year period.

On an adjusted basis, EPS rose 11% to $2.26, exceeding the high end of management's guidance and ahead of the consensus estimate of approximately $2.20. Diversified markets revenue grew more than 8%, beating the company's mid-single-digit guidance, with broad-based strength across all three business units. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 130 basis points excluding FICO royalties, reflecting operating leverage, AI productivity, and cost discipline, even after absorbing an estimated $20 million mortgage-market revenue headwind in September.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

Equifax shares climbed more than 10% following the report, even as the company reduced its full-year revenue outlook because of a weaker U.S. mortgage market. The rally suggested investors were relieved that the mortgage impact was quantified and largely contained, with diversified growth and margin expansion carrying the quarter. Notably, the gain marked a shift from prior quarters, when earnings beats had been followed by stock declines. Sentiment was also supported by strong free cash flow expectations—above $1 billion for 2026—and ongoing share repurchases. Still, the softer fourth-quarter guidance, which sits roughly in line with or below the Street, kept some caution in the conversation heading into year-end.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

Looking ahead, management's fourth quarter 2026 guidance calls for revenue of $1.605 billion to $1.635 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.07 to $2.17, implying modest earnings growth at the midpoint. For the full year, Equifax now expects revenue of $6.646 billion to $6.676 billion and adjusted EPS of $8.45 to $8.55, while raising its full-year adjusted EBITDA margin expansion target, excluding FICO, to about 100 basis points.

The most important swing factor remains mortgage rates and origination volumes. Management indicated that if rates stay near current levels, mortgage activity is likely to be weaker in 2027, with transactions down on average versus 2026. Investors will be watching whether diversified growth in government, consumer lending, and talent solutions can continue to offset that pressure.

Several catalysts also bear monitoring. The pending acquisition of Círculo de Crédito, Mexico's second-largest and fastest-growing credit bureau, is expected to close in the fourth quarter and could add scale in Latin America. VantageScore adoption continues to accelerate, with management estimating meaningful margin upside if more lenders shift to the paid model over time. Finally, the company's AI productivity initiative—now targeting $150 million in savings—remains a key driver of margin performance into 2027.

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