Joint Stock Company Kaspikz American Depository Shares (KSPI) Earnings Date & Reports

Key Takeaways

• Kaspi.kz reported consolidated 3Q 2026 revenue up 18% year-over-year on a constant-currency basis to KZT1.1 trillion (about $2.5 billion), with adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) up 1% to KZT408 billion.
• Net income reached KZT281 billion ($637 million), while the board proposed a higher quarterly dividend of KZT1,000 per ADS (American depositary share), up from KZT850 previously.
• e-Commerce engagement strengthened, with annualized purchases per consumer rising 27% and the take rate expanding 210 basis points to 16.3%.
• Core engines held firm: Payments TPV (total payment volume) grew 14% and Fintech revenue rose 19%, though sharp appreciation of the Kazakh tenge weighed on reported GMV (gross merchandise value).
• Management reiterated guidance for around 5% adjusted EBITDA growth in 2026 but trimmed its Marketplace GMV outlook to roughly 12% amid currency effects.
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Earnings Context and Why It Matters

Kaspi.kz, the Kazakhstan-based fintech and e-commerce "Super App" operator, reported third-quarter and nine-month results on November 9, 2026, under its 3Q & 9M 2026 period ending September 30, 2026. This report carries extra weight because it tests whether Kaspi.kz can sustain double-digit top-line growth while navigating an unusually strong tenge and a high-interest-rate environment. Investors are also watching closely how the company balances shareholder returns against heavy investment in Türkiye through its Hepsiburada platform. With the board lifting its proposed dividend, the quarter offered a fresh signal of management's confidence in cash generation and its long-term expansion plans.

Reported Results

Kaspi.kz posted consolidated constant-currency revenue growth of 18% year-over-year to KZT1.1 trillion ($2.5 billion), while adjusted EBITDA rose just 1% to KZT408 billion ($925 million) and net income came in at KZT281 billion ($637 million). The gap between revenue and profit growth reflects currency translation effects and continued investment in newer initiatives.

Across segments, Marketplace revenue climbed 20% on a constant-currency basis to KZT466 billion ($1.1 billion), outpacing GMV growth of 8% as monetization improved. e-Commerce revenue grew 23% to KZT343 billion ($779 million), with the take rate expanding 210 basis points to 16.3%. Payments TPV rose 14% to KZT13.6 trillion ($30.8 billion), while Fintech revenue increased 19% to KZT489 billion ($1.1 billion), supported by 14% growth in the average net loan portfolio.

A key highlight was the proposed quarterly dividend of KZT1,000 per ADS, up from KZT850, subject to shareholder approval. Management also reiterated its 2026 guidance for around 5% year-over-year consolidated adjusted EBITDA growth, while revising constant-currency Marketplace GMV growth guidance to approximately 12%.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

Heading into the report, sentiment around Kaspi.kz was constructive but cautious, reflecting a strong underlying business offset by currency and regulatory headwinds. Analysts have largely maintained a favorable view of the stock, with a recent Buy rating and a $135 price target cited by third-party tracking services. The dividend increase to KZT1,000 per ADS and resilient payments and fintech performance supported the investment case, while the trimmed Marketplace GMV guidance and a modest 1% rise in adjusted EBITDA highlighted the near-term drag from tenge appreciation. Post-earnings, investors are likely weighing the durability of engagement gains against the slower profit trajectory implied by 2026 guidance.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

Management pointed to stronger earnings growth potential in 2027, citing two interest-rate reductions of 100 basis points each in August and October that should ease funding costs. Those benefits are expected to become more visible next year, with investments in Türkiye forecast to moderate significantly.

Investors should watch whether e-Commerce engagement continues to climb and whether the expanded take rate holds. The company's push into neighborhood grocery through Magnum Daily is another catalyst, following a 42-store pilot that achieved roughly 15% EBITDA margin, with plans to reach about 300 stores by the end of 2027.

Currency remains a key variable. The tenge strengthened about 20% against the U.S. dollar and 32% against the Turkish lira year-over-year, compressing reported GMV even as item volumes grew. Any reversal in that trend, along with the trajectory of interest rates in Kazakhstan, could materially influence the pace of profit recovery. For now, the balance of engagement growth, higher-margin monetization, and disciplined capital returns keeps the outlook balanced.

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