Joint Stock Company Kaspikz American Depository Shares (KSPI) Earnings Date & Reports

Key Takeaways

• Kaspi.kz reported Q2 2026 revenue of KZT 1.1 trillion (approximately $2.3 billion), up 15% year-over-year, driven by robust e-commerce and fintech performance.
• Net income remained flat at KZT 259 billion ($539 million), pressured by elevated funding costs, higher National Bank reserve requirements, and ongoing investments in Türkiye.
• The board recommended an 18% sequential increase in the quarterly dividend to KZT 1,000 per ADS, signaling confidence in the long-term growth outlook.
• The company launched Kasper, its AI-powered personal shopping assistant, which reached roughly 20% adoption among eligible consumers within its first month in Kazakhstan.
• Kaspi.kz completed the acquisition of Rabobank A.Ş. in Türkiye, rebranding it Hepsi Bank, with plans to invest approximately $300 million ahead of a broader fintech rollout in 2027.
• Full-year 2026 guidance was reiterated, with management expecting a back-half acceleration driven by deposit rate repricing and operating leverage.

Earnings Context and Why It Matters

Kaspi.kz occupies a unique position as Kazakhstan's dominant fintech, payments, and e-commerce ecosystem, operating through its widely used Super App. The company has been expanding aggressively into Türkiye through its Hepsiburada marketplace, making these results a key check on both domestic momentum and the early returns on international expansion. The Q2 2026 report lands at a pivotal moment: funding costs in Kazakhstan have remained elevated for over two years, the Turkish lira continues to weaken against the Kazakh tenge, and the company is making substantial technology investments — including its Kasper AI assistant and pay-by-palm system. For investors, this quarter offered clarity on whether top-line growth can offset margin headwinds and whether the Türkiye strategy is gaining traction.

Reported Results

Kaspi.kz reported consolidated revenue of KZT 1.1 trillion for the second quarter of 2026, representing a 15% increase compared to the same period a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) rose 5% year-over-year to KZT 397 billion ($826 million). Net income came in at KZT 259 billion ($539 million), essentially flat versus Q2 2025, and slightly below the FactSet consensus estimate of KZT 263.32 billion.

E-commerce remained the primary growth engine, with constant-currency GMV (gross merchandise value, or total sales value of goods transacted on the platform) climbing 28% year-over-year and purchases increasing 33% to more than 76 million transactions. The marketplace take rate expanded 110 basis points to 12.1%, fueled by growth in advertising and delivery services. Payments TPV (total payment volume) rose 13% to KZT 12.7 trillion ($26.3 billion), while fintech revenue surged 23% to KZT 455 billion ($946 million), outpacing the 18% growth in the average net loan portfolio as the loan mix shifted toward higher-yielding products.

Profitability faced measurable headwinds. The net income margin compressed from 26.7% in Q2 2025 to 23.3%, reflecting a 150-basis-point increase in funding costs, higher provisions, and technology and marketing investments. The Turkish lira depreciated 21% against the tenge, further dampening reported figures.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

The market responded favorably to Kaspi.kz's Q2 results, with shares rising approximately 3.4% on the day of the release according to Investing.com data. The positive reaction appeared driven by several factors: the larger-than-expected 18% dividend boost, strong constant-currency e-commerce growth, and the tangible progress on the Türkiye expansion with the Rabobank acquisition completed and a shopping loan pilot already underway. The flat net income figure — slightly below FactSet consensus — did not appear to rattle investors, likely because margin pressures from elevated funding costs were well telegraphed. The first deposit rate cut in over two years, announced alongside the results, was received as an early signal that the interest rate cycle may be turning in Kaspi.kz's favor.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

Kaspi.kz reiterated its full-year 2026 guidance, which calls for marketplace GMV growth of around 20%, payments TPV growth of approximately 15%, average net loan portfolio growth of about 15%, and adjusted EBITDA growth of roughly 15%. With first-half EBITDA growth tracking at around 7%, the guidance implies a significant acceleration in the second half of the year.

Management pointed to several catalysts that underpin this back-half confidence. The August reduction of the three-month deposit rate by 100 basis points — the first cut in more than two years — affects roughly one-third of the company's deposit base and should begin contributing to lower funding costs by late 2026 and into 2027. CFO David Ferguson noted that any additional rate cuts by the National Bank of Kazakhstan this year "should just give you increased confidence about earnings growth next year."

On the technology front, the Kasper AI assistant rollout across Kazakhstan represents a potentially significant engagement and monetization lever. Early metrics are encouraging: one in five eligible consumers used Kasper within weeks of launch, approximately 80% of conversations result in product recommendations, and the assistant reduces product discovery time by roughly 50%. Management intends to expand Kasper's capabilities beyond shopping to other Super App services over time.

In Türkiye, the integration of Hepsi Bank sets the stage for a broader fintech launch in 2027. The company plans to invest about $300 million in the market and is piloting a shopping loan product integrated into Hepsiburada, which already accounted for 0.54% of GMV (gross merchandise value) in June. However, Turkish lira volatility and the deliberate pace of the foundation-building phase mean material financial contributions from Türkiye remain a medium-term story.

Risks to monitor include the trajectory of Kazakhstan's interest rate cycle, the path of the Turkish lira, credit quality (the cost of risk ticked up to 0.7% from 0.6%, and the NPL — non-performing loan — ratio rose to 7.0% from 6.1% at year-end 2025), and the scalability of AI-driven features like Kasper. The second half of 2026 will test whether the company can translate its revenue momentum into the margin expansion that its guidance envisions.

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