Joint Stock Company Kaspikz American Depository Shares (KSPI) Earnings Date & Reports

Key Takeaways

• Kaspi.kz (KSPI) is expected to report third-quarter 2026 results around November 9, 2026, before the U.S. market opens.
• Analyst consensus estimates for 3Q 2026 point to earnings of roughly $3.30 to $3.44 per share and revenue of approximately $2.66 billion to $2.83 billion.
• E-commerce remains the company's main growth engine, supported by rising purchase frequency and improving monetization through advertising and delivery.
• Investors will watch progress in Türkiye, where the company recently rebranded its acquired Rabobank unit as Hepsi Bank.
• Management reiterated full-year 2026 guidance, including roughly 20% gross merchandise value growth and about 5% EBITDA growth.

Earnings Context and Why It Matters

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, commonly known as Kaspi.kz, operates a leading "Super App" ecosystem spanning payments, e-commerce, and fintech across Kazakhstan and Türkiye. Its quarterly results offer a timely read on consumer spending and digital-finance adoption in two fast-growing emerging markets. In the second quarter of 2026, the company reported 15% year-over-year revenue growth to KZT1.1 trillion (about $2.3 billion) and stable net income, while raising its dividend. With an expanding international footprint — anchored by its 86% stake in Turkish e-commerce platform Hepsiburada — this report matters to investors tracking both durable platform growth and the execution of a multi-market strategy.

Earnings Expectations

Wall Street's consensus estimates for Kaspi.kz's 3Q 2026 center on earnings per share of roughly $3.30 to $3.44 and revenue of approximately $2.66 billion to $2.83 billion, depending on the data provider. For context, the company posted earnings of $2.87 per share on revenue of $2.34 billion in 2Q 2026, beating the EPS estimate while revenue came in slightly below expectations.

Investors will focus on several key metrics. E-commerce gross merchandise value, or GMV (the total value of goods sold through the platform), is a core growth indicator, as is the e-commerce take rate (the percentage of GMV the company captures as revenue). Payments total payment volume, or TPV, and fintech's average net loan portfolio are also closely watched, since management has guided that average net loan portfolio growth — rather than total finance volume, or TFV — now best reflects fintech's financial trajectory.

The company has reiterated full-year 2026 guidance of roughly 20% GMV growth, about 15% TPV growth, and around 5% EBITDA growth (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), measured at constant currency exchange rates as of January 1, 2026.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

Kaspi.kz shares have historically posted relatively modest single-day moves around earnings, with an average reaction of roughly plus or minus 1.8%, though the stock moved more than 5% following its most recent report. Sentiment heading into 3Q 2026 results is shaped by two competing forces: optimism around accelerating e-commerce engagement and monetization, and caution about margin pressure from higher funding costs and continued investment in the Türkiye expansion.

Key risk factors include potential take-rate compression in payments, sustained funding-cost headwinds in fintech, and the near-term earnings drag from integrating Hepsiburada and the newly launched Hepsi Bank. Any update to full-year guidance or the dividend will likely be a central driver of the post-earnings reaction.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

Beyond the headline figures, investors should watch e-commerce monetization closely. Rising purchase frequency per consumer and growth in value-added services — primarily advertising and delivery revenue — have been the main drivers of improving economics, and sustained progress here would reinforce the platform's long-term growth story.

Türkiye remains the most important strategic watch item. Kaspi.kz completed its acquisition of Rabobank A.Ş. and rebranded the business Hepsi Bank, and management has signaled plans to expand its fintech offering in Türkiye starting in 2027. Progress on engagement and delivery improvements at Hepsiburada will be closely scrutinized, with management targeting at least EBITDA breakeven for that business.

Finally, funding costs and credit quality matter for the fintech segment. The company recently reduced the interest rate on its three-month deposit product by 100 basis points — the first such cut in more than two years — which could ease some cost pressure over time. Cost of risk has remained low, but any deterioration in the lending portfolio or shifts in the product mix toward longer-duration loans will be important signals for future profitability.

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