Joint Stock Company Kaspikz American Depository Shares (KSPI) Earnings Date & Reports

Kaspi.kz delivered robust top-line growth in 1Q 2026, with consolidated revenue climbing 31% YoY to KZT 1.1 trillion ($2.3 billion), surpassing FactSet consensus of KZT 1.032 trillion. This was fueled by Marketplace revenue surging 49% to KZT 520 billion ($1.1 billion), driven by 41% e-commerce GMV growth to KZT 1.3 trillion ($2.6 billion) on constant-currency, pro-forma basis, and 43% rise in orders. Value-added services like advertising and delivery jumped 73% YoY.

Adjusted EBITDA increased 9% to KZT 368 billion ($768 million), matching expectations despite margin pressure from investments. Net income dipped 1% to KZT 252 billion ($526 million) from higher funding costs and Türkiye-related expenses. Segment-wise, Fintech revenue grew 25% to KZT 430 billion ($897 million) with 23% average loan portfolio expansion, while Payments TPV rose 14% to KZT 11.4 trillion ($23.7 billion), though revenue edged up only 7% due to a slightly lower 1.03% take rate. Management noted results were in line with internal plans.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

KSPI shares dipped about 0.91% to $85.90 in early trading on May 11, with mixed pre-market signals up to +4% before settling lower, reflecting profit-taking despite beats on revenue and net income vs. some estimates (e.g., FactSet net income KZT 238B). Investors appeared cautious on flat net income, higher costs, and reiterated modest FY guidance amid macro headwinds, though e-commerce strength bolstered sentiment for long-term growth.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

Kaspi.kz reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, targeting around 20% GMV growth, 15% TPV growth, -2% to ~5% TFV (total finance volume) growth, and 5% adjusted EBITDA expansion, incorporating Türkiye on a constant-currency basis. This reflects confidence in the diversified model, with e-commerce now a core driver representing half of GMV from that region.

Investors should track e-commerce momentum, as purchases per consumer hit 15 (up 44% YoY) and take rates improved to 15.8% (3P GMV basis). Fintech credit quality remains stable (cost of risk 0.7%, NPL 6.6%), but monitor loan portfolio growth amid potential rate shifts. Payments mix changes and Türkiye investments could pressure margins short-term.

Upcoming catalysts include Q2 results in August, dividend approval (KZT 850/ADS), and $600M notes proceeds deployment for expansion. Broader factors: Kazakhstan consumer spending, regional geopolitics, and KZT/USD fluctuations. Balanced growth across segments will be key to sustaining profitability.

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