Mosaic Company (The) (MOS) Earnings Date & Reports

Key Takeaways

• Mosaic swung to a net loss of $72.1 million, or $0.23 per share, in the third quarter of 2026, compared with net income of $411.4 million, or $1.29 per share, a year earlier.
• Adjusted (non-GAAP) loss was $0.19 per share, missing the roughly $0.02 consensus by $0.17, while net sales of $3.10 billion topped estimates by about $50 million.
• Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) fell to $324 million from $806 million, pressured by higher raw material costs and lower volumes across all three segments.
• Phosphate was the weak spot, posting a $194 million operating loss versus a $102 million profit last year amid production curtailments tied to scarce, expensive sulfur.
• Potash remained profitable with $189 million in operating earnings, but the company lowered its 2026 potash production forecast to 8.6 million tonnes on softer ore grades at the Esterhazy mine.
• Operating cash flow improved to $284 million, and Mosaic locked in fourth-quarter sulfur supply at $615 per long ton, below the third-quarter average of $715.
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Earnings Context and Why It Matters

Mosaic's third-quarter report is a pivotal read on the global fertilizer cycle, because it captures how sharply rising raw material costs and deliberate production cuts ripple through the company's earnings. The quarter was dominated by a sulfur supply shock linked to Middle East shipping disruptions, which forced Mosaic to idle and curtail phosphate operations. At the same time, stronger agricultural commodity prices and improving grower demand have tightened fertilizer markets. Investors are watching closely to gauge whether pricing power can offset input-cost inflation and whether the production curtailments are temporary or a sign of longer-lasting margin pressure in the phosphate business.

Reported Results

The Mosaic Company reported third-quarter 2026 net sales of $3.10 billion, down 10.1% from $3.45 billion a year earlier but about $50 million above consensus estimates. The company recorded a net loss attributable to Mosaic of $72.1 million, or $0.23 per share, reversing a profit of $411.4 million, or $1.29 per share, in the prior-year period. On an adjusted (non-GAAP) basis, Mosaic posted a loss of $0.19 per share, missing analyst expectations by $0.17. Results included $53 million in pre-tax notable items that reduced earnings per share by $0.04.

Adjusted EBITDA dropped to $324 million from $806 million a year earlier, while the company booked an operating loss of $97 million. The Phosphates segment drove the decline, swinging to a $194 million operating loss from a $102 million profit, with sales volumes falling to 1.4 million tonnes from 1.6 million tonnes even as average DAP (diammonium phosphate) selling prices rose to $838 per tonne from $714. The Potash segment remained profitable at $189 million in operating earnings, down from $229 million, on sales of 2.1 million tonnes. Mosaic Fertilizantes reported net sales of $1.3 billion and a $21 million operating loss, versus $1.6 billion and $96 million of operating earnings a year earlier.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

Shares of Mosaic edged down about 0.6% in after-hours trading following the release, a relatively muted response given the wider-than-expected adjusted loss. The revenue beat and signs of improving cash flow appeared to temper investor concern, even as the swing to a net loss and heavy phosphate losses underscored how vulnerable margins remain to raw material costs. Sentiment heading into the report had already been cautious, with the stock under pressure since the prior quarter. The results leave investors weighing whether stronger agricultural prices and lower fourth-quarter sulfur costs can begin to repair profitability, against the backdrop of ongoing production curtailments and reduced volumes.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

Management provided fourth-quarter guidance that points to continued but gradually improving conditions. Mosaic expects phosphate sales volumes of 1.3 million to 1.6 million tonnes and potash sales volumes of 2.3 million to 2.6 million tonnes, with average DAP plant prices projected at $820 to $840 per tonne. Notably, the company settled its fourth-quarter sulfur contract at $615 per long ton, well below the third-quarter average of $715, which should ease input-cost pressure as higher-cost inventory cycles through the books.

Mosaic now forecasts full-year 2026 potash production of 8.6 million tonnes, down from prior expectations, reflecting unfavorable geological conditions and lower ore grades at the Esterhazy mine in Canada. Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected at $1.2 billion, with the company targeting below $1 billion in 2027 as part of its cost-discipline efforts.

Investors should watch several key factors going forward: whether sulfur supply normalizes and prices remain lower, how quickly curtailed phosphate capacity can resume, the trajectory of agricultural commodity prices and global fertilizer demand, and the pace of working capital release expected in the fourth quarter. The company's refinancing of long-term maturities out to 2028 has also strengthened its balance sheet flexibility, providing a cushion as management works to align production with affordable raw material supply.

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