SanDisk (SNDK) Earnings Date & Reports

Key Takeaways

• Sandisk is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results on Wednesday, August 5, after market close.
• Company guidance calls for revenue of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion and non-GAAP (adjusted) diluted EPS of $30.00 to $33.00.
• Wall Street consensus sits even higher, with analysts projecting revenue of approximately $8.42 billion and EPS of roughly $34.67.
• The stock plunged roughly 47% in July, its worst month since returning to public markets in February 2025, significantly raising the stakes for this report.
• Investor attention is squarely on New Business Model (NBM) agreement progress, NAND pricing trends, and the durability of data center demand.
• Options markets are pricing in a post-earnings swing of roughly 21%, well above Sandisk's average 8.75% move over the prior four quarters.

Earnings Context and Why It Matters

Sandisk Corporation (SNDK), a pure-play NAND flash memory and enterprise solid-state drive (SSD) manufacturer, approaches its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 report at one of the most consequential junctures since its spin-off from Western Digital in early 2025. The stock has delivered a year-to-date gain of more than 400%, powered by an extraordinary surge in AI-driven storage demand, tight global NAND supply, and rapidly expanding margins. Yet July delivered a sharp reality check: shares tumbled approximately 47% as investors rotated out of high-momentum semiconductor names and questioned whether AI infrastructure spending can sustain its blistering pace. The upcoming report will test whether Sandisk's operational momentum can overcome mounting market skepticism about valuation, cyclical risk, and the longevity of NAND pricing power.

Earnings Expectations

Sandisk's official guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter calls for revenue between $7.75 billion and $8.25 billion, with non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $30.00 to $33.00 and a non-GAAP gross margin of 79% to 81%. These figures already represent staggering year-over-year growth; in the same quarter last year, the company reported revenue of approximately $1.9 billion and adjusted EPS of just $0.29.

Wall Street consensus has climbed above the company's own guided range. According to multiple data aggregators, analysts on average expect revenue near $8.42 billion and adjusted EPS of approximately $34.67. The Zacks Consensus Estimate similarly points to EPS of $34.24 on revenue of $8.3 billion. The most recent analyst estimate revisions have trended sharply higher, with the consensus EPS figure rising more than 5% over the past 30 days. This reflects growing confidence that NAND average selling prices (ASPs) and data center demand remained robust through the June-ending quarter. Sandisk has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four reported quarters, most recently delivering $23.41 in fiscal Q3 versus expectations of roughly $14.50 — a positive surprise of over 61%.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

Sentiment heading into the August 5 report is tense. Sandisk shares closed July 31 at $1,214.83, down roughly 47% for the month and approximately 40% below the all-time high of $2,354.39 reached earlier in the summer. The sell-off reflects broader concerns about stretched AI-related valuations and emerging competition from Chinese memory chip producers, rather than any company-specific deterioration. Options markets imply a post-earnings swing of roughly 21% in either direction, compared to Sandisk's average absolute post-earnings move of 8.75% over the last four quarters — signaling that traders are bracing for an outsized reaction. Analyst sentiment remains broadly favorable: Evercore recently reiterated a Buy rating with a $3,100 price target, while Wells Fargo raised its target to $1,620, though it maintained a Hold rating. The key risk is that even a strong "beat-and-raise" quarter could disappoint if NAND pricing commentary or fiscal 2027 guidance fails to match elevated expectations.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

The fourth-quarter report carries outsized implications for Sandisk's trajectory into fiscal 2027. Here are the critical areas investors should scrutinize beyond the headline numbers.

New Business Model (NBM) Agreements. Sandisk ended fiscal Q3 with three signed NBM agreements — multi-year supply contracts backed by firm financial commitments designed to reduce cyclical earnings volatility. Two additional agreements were signed during the fiscal fourth quarter. Evercore analysts estimate these five NBMs represent approximately $62 billion in committed revenue over several years, with more than $11 billion in financial guarantees and prepayments. Updates on the pace of NBM adoption, contract coverage ratios for fiscal 2027, and any new signings will be closely parsed as evidence that Sandisk's earnings base is becoming structurally more durable.

Data Center Revenue Momentum. Data center revenue surged 233% sequentially to $1.47 billion in fiscal Q3, driven by enterprise SSD deployments for AI infrastructure. The fourth-quarter figure will indicate whether hyperscale cloud providers are sustaining or accelerating their storage build-out. Any softening in data center order patterns would be interpreted as a warning sign for the broader AI capex cycle.

NAND Pricing and Gross Margin Trajectory. Sandisk's gross margin expanded from 22.5% in fiscal Q3 2025 to 78.4% in fiscal Q3 2026, a remarkable run reflecting scarce NAND supply and surging demand. Management guided for fiscal Q4 gross margin of 79% to 81%, and investors will look for indications of where margins can settle in a more normalized environment. Commentary on supply-demand balance, industry capacity additions, and pricing negotiations will shape expectations for the quarters ahead.

Fiscal 2027 Guidance and Capital Allocation. With the company ending fiscal Q3 debt-free and holding $3.74 billion in cash, any commentary around the recently authorized $6 billion share repurchase program, capital expenditure plans, or preliminary fiscal 2027 revenue and margin frameworks will carry significant weight. Given that consensus estimates for fiscal 2027 already project revenue approaching $48 billion and EPS above $200, forward guidance will need to support — or challenge — these ambitious forecasts.

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