SanDisk (SNDK) Earnings Date & Reports

Key Takeaways

• Record revenue: Sandisk posted fiscal Q4 2026 revenue of $8.97 billion, up 51% sequentially and 372% year-over-year, exceeding consensus estimates of approximately $8.48 billion.
• Earnings blowout: Non-GAAP (adjusted) diluted earnings per share came in at $39.25, handily beating the analyst consensus of roughly $34.96. GAAP diluted EPS reached $43.97.
• Margin expansion: Non-GAAP gross margin surged to 84.6%, up from 78.4% in the prior quarter and 26.4% a year ago, reflecting strong pricing power in a supply-constrained NAND market.
• Guidance miss weighed on shares: Despite the beat, management's fiscal Q1 2027 revenue guidance of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion came in below the $11.16 billion Wall Street expected, triggering a sharp after-hours sell-off.
• $14 billion buyback approved: Sandisk's board authorized an additional $14 billion in share repurchases, bringing total remaining authorization to $15.5 billion.
• Stock down despite beat: Shares fell 5.4% in regular trading on August 5 and extended losses in after-hours trading, reflecting investor disappointment with the forward revenue outlook.

Earnings Context and Why It Matters

Sandisk's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings carried outsized weight for investors who have watched the NAND flash memory giant deliver one of the most extraordinary stock market runs in recent history. Since spinning off from Western Digital in February 2025, Sandisk has ridden an unprecedented wave of AI-driven demand for data center storage, with its stock surging more than 3,000% over the past 52 weeks and climbing roughly 500% year-to-date before the report. As one of the world's five largest NAND flash suppliers, Sandisk sits at the intersection of two of the market's most powerful themes: artificial intelligence infrastructure build-out and tight semiconductor supply. This earnings report was viewed as a critical test of whether the pricing cycle and demand momentum could sustain valuations that have pushed the company's market capitalization above $200 billion.

Reported Results

Sandisk delivered a fiscal fourth quarter for the record books. Revenue reached $8.97 billion, representing a 51% sequential increase and a staggering 372% jump from the same quarter a year earlier. The top-line result sailed past the consensus estimate of approximately $8.48 billion. GAAP net income totaled $6.90 billion, or $43.97 per diluted share, while non-GAAP diluted earnings per share landed at $39.25—comfortably ahead of the $34.96 analysts had projected.

The revenue growth was driven roughly one-third by higher shipment volumes and two-thirds by higher pricing, underscoring the favorable supply-demand dynamics that have defined the NAND market throughout fiscal 2026. Gross margin expanded to 84.6% on a non-GAAP basis, a level rarely seen in the memory industry and a dramatic improvement from 26.4% in the year-ago period. Operating income surged 71% sequentially to $7.04 billion on a non-GAAP basis.

For the full fiscal year 2026, Sandisk reported revenue of $20.25 billion, up 175% year-over-year, with the Datacenter segment alone growing 437%. Non-GAAP diluted EPS for the full year reached $70.88. The company also announced it had signed five additional New Business Model (NBM) agreements since its April earnings call, bringing the total to ten—multi-year customer commitments designed to reduce the cyclicality historically associated with memory chip revenue. On the capital return front, the board approved a $14 billion expansion of the share repurchase program, bringing the total remaining buyback authorization to $15.5 billion.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

Despite posting what CEO David Goeckeler called "a fundamental inflection point," Sandisk's stock was punished in the hours surrounding the report. Shares closed regular trading on August 5 down 5.4% at $1,350.50, then fell an additional 4% to 8% in after-hours trading. The paradox of a huge earnings beat paired with a declining stock can be traced directly to the company's forward guidance.

While the fiscal Q1 2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance range of $44.00 to $46.00 was roughly in line with the consensus estimate of $45.58, the revenue outlook of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion fell short of the $11.16 billion analysts had modeled. In a stock that has priced in nearly flawless execution, a modest revenue guidance miss was enough to rattle confidence. The sell-off also reflects broader nervousness about the sustainability of NAND pricing, especially after Sandisk's stock had already pulled back roughly 40% from its all-time high of $2,354.39 reached earlier in the summer. With the memory sector inherently cyclical, any signal that demand growth may be decelerating—even from extraordinarily elevated levels—tends to trigger outsized reactions.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

Looking ahead, Sandisk enters fiscal 2027 with considerable momentum but also elevated expectations. Management's guidance implies fiscal Q1 2027 revenue of up to $10.8 billion and non-GAAP EPS as high as $46.00, which would represent another sequential step-up from the record Q4. However, the revenue guidance coming in below consensus has shifted the investor conversation from "how high can this go" to "when does the cycle peak."

Several factors will determine the trajectory from here. First, the durability of NAND pricing remains the single most important variable. The approximately two-thirds contribution from pricing to Sandisk's sequential growth in Q4 highlights how sensitive the top line is to supply-demand balance. Any softening in enterprise SSD (solid-state drive) demand from hyperscale cloud providers would quickly flow through to results.

Second, the New Business Model agreements—now totaling ten—represent a structural shift intended to smooth out the boom-and-bust cycles that have historically plagued memory stocks. If these multi-year customer commitments successfully lock in pricing and volume, they could support a higher and more stable valuation multiple for Sandisk over time. Investors will be watching for additional NBM signings and, more importantly, evidence that existing agreements are being honored at favorable terms.

Third, the $15.5 billion share buyback authorization provides a significant potential floor for the stock, though execution timing and scale remain at management's discretion. Finally, broader macroeconomic conditions—including AI capital expenditure trends among the largest cloud providers—will play a decisive role. With Sandisk now trading at a forward P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio in the single digits based on consensus estimates, the valuation debate hinges entirely on whether the current earnings run rate is sustainable or cyclical. The coming quarters will provide the answer.

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